Re: OIL AGAIN!
Hey Jess, you seem super bullish on oil
I for some reason have a similar view that energy prices now, will be considered very low in the next 3-5 years etc...cant cant put my house on it etc!
thx
MS
Yep, i am Bullish on oil Michael. Well, to $150.00 anyway...............but seriously, recession, depression, whatever happens, we unfortunately have built our life around the stuff and no matter what the bears say, its a finite resource and i just dont see supply keeping up with demand.
The oil might be there but it takes time to find new wells and it ill be much more costly to extract. Being more costly to extract, that needs to be passed on to the consumer and the price will go up.
Call me crazy but, i just dont agree with the bears and think there are some serious fundamentals in the bullish favour.
Throw in a bombardment of Israel, more attacks on pipe lines in Nigera, on going tensions in Iraq and the recepie is there for anything to happen.
I also think people have underestimated the demand from India and China, ever seen how big these places are?
It is mind blowing and beyond comprehesion for most people.
Further to that, the US dollar looks very shaky, further underpinning hedging in oil. Europe is increasing interest rates, to weaken the dollar again.
And one day when the good old USA does recover, guess wha, they will need even more oil. They will also begin filling their national emergency reserves also.
I dont see any surplus quality oil laying around and even with high prices demand is still there, it may have slowed a little but in the scheme of things not much.
People comnplain that oil is too expensive, but, i assure you, they can afford it and will make cuts in other areas before they stop filling the tank with fuel. It is a necessary evil, you need fuel to get to work to earn the money you need to fill the tank so you can go to work and earn more money.
Seems like a no brainer to me.
Obviosly it can not keep going up forever.
I still think your averageguy on the street can take more pain yet, no doubt about it. I filled the car a few weeks ago and had to queue behind 3 cars before i could get to the bowser.......i had to fight my way through the crowds.......they have the money to support $150.00 i would say, no worries.
Lets bring on $200.00 and see how they go. I think you would be suprised at how much people can afford, they just need to trim off a few luxuries. Dont worry, they will cut back on other things before they begin riding bikes, we are after all, a very lazy society and we have it easy.
My scooter costs me just over $5.00 a week and i ride it to work each day, the car is used by my partener and cost about $100.00 to fill the tank every two weeks. Can we afford to pay more for fuel, of course we can.
And agree with you, in 5 years time these fuel prices will seem soooo cheap.
JW
$150.00 Oil, not a doubt in my mind...........