Oil price discussion and analysis

[JeSSica WaBBit]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

There appears to be a fait accompli by some posters regarding the future of the oil price & an ignorance of the data showing that consumption is falling in established western economies and that the rate of consumption is also falling in the so called 'expanding' countries.

Dunno Uncle, looks pretty solid to me.

Care to join Wavepicker and put some beer on it?


JW

 

[ithatheekret]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

I'm sticking with my projections and they're only based on a phase one catalyst at present .




If I were a sober and astute investor I'd be buying the dips , but at present I'm too pissed to give a ....

But even though the State has paid for my nights entertainment , I'm more than certain that oil will achieve a price average of $140 pb ....... actually $142.80 , so IMHO $120.60 -$142.80 will see us out until 2014 at least in the median range ...... unless the unexpected pops up and chits all over my calculations .

Margins will be protected ! The rest is in our Lords hands .......... apologies to our athiest members , but the pri.ks keep shifting the goal posts , the more they shift them the closer $200 will get !

Well we've seen in the first target , yuck ......

I don't like this projection stuff anymore , best pick out a red .... maybe a port ...... ah f**k this where's the whiskey !

I have 156 2nd 162 3rd 168 running in 4th place next . If we get there , I'm hiring slaves to carry me petrol will be too expensive and it will be cheaper to get rolling drunk . Unfortunately , I could get pinched if drunk on a horse around here . They'd probably breatho the horse too in this district .

Somone wake George and tell him it's Groundhog day , if they can find Blair slap him with Cherie ......... forget about Johnny , he's not worth it .

 

[rederob]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Well we've seen in the first target , yuck ......

I have 156 2nd 162 3rd 168 running in 4th place next.

It is a curious mathematical convenience that number from 140 rise to 156, 162 and 168, and even higher.
My preference for the next high is a figure greater than the last one.
I have no difficulty projecting higher highs without needing a drink.

On a more sane level, the issue with oil is the price it reaches to trigger sustainable demand destruction. Clearly Western countries are curtailing non-essential travel and reducing oil demand. That reduction needs to flow back into inventory re-builds before the oil price stabilises/declines.
It is likely that once this trend reveals itself to oil speculators, the price will collapse considerably.
That collapse will be relatively short-lived, however, as it is quite clear from OPEC spokesmen and industry insiders that output will have difficulty matching demand in the near years. In the distant years - 2012 and beyond - the mismatch will climb incrementally until other energy sources render oil to price equilibrium.
Because oil delivers incredible portable power by weight/volume, it is not likely that its price will ever decline to previous historical levels unless matched or bettered by a technology we have yet to discover.

 

[ithatheekret]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Hmmm .... hypothesis or taking the p...


I wonder how I got a certain projection on IPL the same way .

I measured certain curves , but those curves are a result of ... what data ?


Sure it is not 100% perfect , I doubt that it's higher than for arguements sake ....... 73.2248 %

But so far it has only failed three times and those instruments were in the realm of others doings . The timeframe is where it seems to get muddled the most . But the combinations are so far ..... doing quite nicely .

I wonder if I should now add the change on the end of those sums ......

But right now I'm satisfied with achieving a record intra day high area !

 

[rederob]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Hmmm .... hypothesis or taking the p...

Given your post suggested a price "average" and, separately, a "median range" to 2014 I can't work out exactly what you have achieved.
We have a 2008 average price of about $112; and you are proposing?
It is a mathematical certainty that the average price for 2008 will rise if the present price remains higher than the average to date - a strong short term probability.

 

[Trader Paul]

Re: OIL AGAIN!



Hi folks,

Looking at the oil price forecast, our astroanalysis has us expecting a few
negative cycles for the oil price in 2008, but fill your tanks now, because
it would not be surprising to see POO hit $200/bbl, in 2009.

Here's SOME of the time cycles expected for oil in 2008 and 2009:

August 2008 ... expecting negative cycles on 01-07-15082008

September 2008 ... expect 2 positive cycles 17-19092008

October 2008 ... volatile oil price in October and November 2008:

10-13102008 ... negative cycle

14102008 ... positive cycle

30102008 ... positive cycle

November 2008 ... 04-05112008 ... negative cycle

13-14112008 ... negative cycle

17-18112008 ... negative cycle

25-30112008 ... positive cycle

December 2008 ... 01122008 ... minor cycle

05-08122008 ... minor and positive news

12-16122008 ... 2 minor and positive cycles

26-29122008 ... 2 significant and positive cycles - strong POO



More later about POO in 2009, but here's a preview of timing for extreme
prices, next year .....

21 May - July 10 2009 ... POO will likely make its first attack at peak prices,
followed by another try, particularly around 16-25122009 ... !~!


have a great weekend

paul



=====

 

[ithatheekret]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Given your post suggested a price "average" and, separately, a "median range" to 2014 I can't work out exactly what you have achieved.

I understand this ..........

We have a 2008 average price of about $112; and you are proposing?
It is a mathematical certainty that the average price for 2008 will rise if the present price remains higher than the average to date - a strong short term probability.


I have $108-$110 .

But it's how or what you do with the data . If you take that data and for example ..... placed it on a line chart ( linear ) . What can you do with it ?
Not much , depending on where you are extrapolating data from and what type of chart your using , I use my own input data ( points ) , where I can within reason identify long data rows , to interpolate between data points , then extrapolate beyond known data values ( I believe it's called projection / forecasting ) . It can be used for comparing different charts . To find and compare trends over time periods and the changes over periods of time . It can recognize correlations and covariations between variables . It can be only used when the X axis requires and interval scale and it’s useless unless the X axis has a numerical value . When convention defines a meaningful pattern it is of great benefit . The little straight lines we seen drawn all over linear charts are only of use to connect data points but when using a series of curves as well you are then able see just what represents functional relations between data points or to interpolate data ……… you know achieve an estimated value of a mathematical function with further input . But I pay more attentions to the curves as these can be measured ! IMHO .


PS.. and speaking of trends , the trend is firmly intact and has not broken down at all , the exponential hasn't budged either .

 

[rederob]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

I have $108-$110 .

But it's how or what you do with the data . If you take that data and for example ..... placed it on a line chart ( linear ) . What can you do with it ?
Not much , depending on where you are extrapolating data from and what type of chart your using , I use my own input data ( points ) , where I can within reason identify long data rows , to interpolate between data points , then extrapolate beyond known data values ( I believe it's called projection / forecasting ) . It can be used for comparing different charts . To find and compare trends over time periods and the changes over periods of time . It can recognize correlations and covariations between variables . It can be only used when the X axis requires and interval scale and it’s useless unless the X axis has a numerical value . When convention defines a meaningful pattern it is of great benefit . The little straight lines we seen drawn all over linear charts are only of use to connect data points but when using a series of curves as well you are then able see just what represents functional relations between data points or to interpolate data ……… you know achieve an estimated value of a mathematical function with further input . But I pay more attentions to the curves as these can be measured ! IMHO .

What a load of mathematical mumbo jumbo!
A chart is just a 2-dimensional price map with axes that show the information you select, and are typically lineal or semi-log.
You don't "extrapolate" data from anywhere at all; you extrapolate date to some point/s.
Your "interpolation" doesn't explain anything, and if you are actually using interpolated data, you are using information that is not reliable and may have never existed.
To do justice to what you purport you do there will be some exceptionally complex maths.
I trust your maths is better than your explanations.

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Looking at the oil price forecast, our astroanalysis has us expecting a few
negative cycles for the oil price in 2008, but fill your tanks now, because
it would not be surprising to see POO hit $200/bbl, in 2009.

21 May - July 10 2009 ... POO will likely make its first attack at peak prices,
followed by another try, particularly around 16-25122009 ... !~!

I very much doubt that $200 will represent a long term peak price. Unless, that is, it causes the economy and thus oil consumption to fall in a heap (possible...).

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

I keep hearing oil is being driven by speculation........? I have seen references to this in both the gold and XAO threads, not to mention, has become a news mantra.

I am a bit confused, if prices are soaring due to speculation (unlike Iron, which has no futures market and is also soaring), then where is the excess supply?

This latest talk and action to limit speculation, is simply the means to the ends of creating a fall in crude prices.

If price falls, demand rises and we get a massive supply shortage, leading to higher prices?

Political games?

 

[ithatheekret]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

What a load of mathematical mumbo jumbo!
A chart is just a 2-dimensional price map with axes that show the information you select, and are typically lineal or semi-log.
You don't "extrapolate" data from anywhere at all; you extrapolate date to some point/s.
Your "interpolation" doesn't explain anything, and if you are actually using interpolated data, you are using information that is not reliable and may have never existed.
To do justice to what you purport you do there will be some exceptionally complex maths.
I trust your maths is better than your explanations.

Yes my math is passable , I actually had an apology for you , the current median is $111.63 .

But after that load of cods , well what was it Neumann said ....... " In mathematics you don’t understand things. You just get used to them "

 

[rederob]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Yes my math is passable , I actually had an apology for you , the current median is $111.63 .

But after that load of cods , well what was it Neumann said ....... " In mathematics you don’t understand things. You just get used to them "

Passable!
Then you would know that the arithmetic average is not the median.
Given the median oil price is about $101 this calendar year you have erred well beyond one standard error.
My favourite from your earlier post is where your magic can recognise "covariations between variables". Oddly enough the linear difference between variables is the covariation.
In hindsight calling that post "mathematical mumbo jumbo" was overly generous.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

There appears to be a fait accompli by some posters regarding the future of the oil price & an ignorance of the data showing that consumption is falling in established western economies and that the rate of consumption is also falling in the so called 'expanding' countries.

Dunno Uncle, looks pretty solid to me.

Care to join Wavepicker and put some beer on it?


JW

Well if the oil bulls are placing all their bets on Chindia to continue to propel the POO over $200 without any hint of global DEPRESSION then you will be right, but I can't bet against myself as a trader of the instrument in the meantime .

Don't laugh, but I actually think there is a hint of truth in the comment by Libya/OPEC that there could actually be an oil glut forming??

On a longer timescale, think of a sawtooth chart for oil with the dips corresponding to global recessions ie the dips will be almost vertical and severe, then a gradual climb again ...... there is no sustainable 'high' price for oil that the world can endure before economic contraction set's in... a peak oil cycle?

 

[rederob]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

On a longer timescale, think of a sawtooth chart for oil with the dips corresponding to global recessions ie the dips will be almost vertical and severe, then a gradual climb again ...... there is no sustainable 'high' price for oil that the world can endure before economic contraction set's in... a peak oil cycle?

I have thought about it.
There is a chance that the present malaise will spread and that oil will fall steeply in price - near term.
However, as in future years there appears no credible chance that crude oil can match demand the "sawtooth" scenario will be confined to rather small dips and not severe declines.
Until a viable (and cheap) alternative to oil for energy is found the world of commerce will bid up oil until demand destruction rather than recessions will be responsible for price dips.
As for the "oil glut", there is one building for sour crude - but it's not what the refiners want, so sweet light oil will continue to attract an expanding premium.

 

[ithatheekret]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Passable!
Then you would know that the arithmetic average is not the median.
Given the median oil price is about $101 this calendar year you have erred well beyond one standard error.
My favourite from your earlier post is where your magic can recognise "covariations between variables". Oddly enough the linear difference between variables is the covariation.
In hindsight calling that post "mathematical mumbo jumbo" was overly generous.

Now I see , you have a problem with the incorrect syntax in my post , well you could have simply corrected it . Sorry about that , you see I thought you were being pedantic . Is there anything else you see in the post that you feel is incorrect ?

 

[JeSSica WaBBit]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Hey Redrob,

The last post of yours, they were Uncle Festivus's words, you accidently quoted them from me................


JW

 

[JeSSica WaBBit]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Hey Uncle,

so you are bullish oil in the short term as per your investments but bearish oil in the long term?

Am i reading your post correctly?

Well, let me know when you turn bearish long term on oil and i will propose a little wager for a carton of cold amber beverages just to keep you focused on your bearish thoughts.

Until then, $150.00 is within reach and the top will soon be knocked off the first of Wavepickers coldies...................

JW

 

[rederob]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Hey Redrob,

The last post of yours, they were Uncle Festivus's words, you accidently quoted them from me................
JW

Sorry Ms Wabbit, it must have been a syntax error :22_yikes:
I didn't notice it earlier as I was regressing the covariants to determine the median from the interpolated data I had extrapolated from the exponentials

 

[michael_selway]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Hey Uncle,

so you are bullish oil in the short term as per your investments but bearish oil in the long term?

Am i reading your post correctly?

Well, let me know when you turn bearish long term on oil and i will propose a little wager for a carton of cold amber beverages just to keep you focused on your bearish thoughts.

Until then, $150.00 is within reach and the top will soon be knocked off the first of Wavepickers coldies...................

JW

Hey Jess, you seem super bullish on oil

I for some reason have a similar view that energy prices now, will be considered very low in the next 3-5 years etc...cant cant put my house on it etc!

thx

MS

 

[JeSSica WaBBit]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Sorry Ms Wabbit, it must have been a syntax error :
I didn't notice it earlier as I was regressing the covariants to determine the median from the interpolated data I had extrapolated from the exponentials

Crikey Rob (poindexter of the ASF i'll be calling you soon), one too many parabolic equations or a little too much pythagerous theorum will do that to you. I dont want you fooling about with any quantum physics, perpetual motion or cold fusion. And, fart gas can not be substituted as fuel for your car.........even if your friends tell you it can.....

Its school holidays so i thought id decipher for the young ones reading the commodties forum.

regressing – intransitive verb to move backwards

covariants – exhibiting a tendancy to change in conjunction with another statistical variable

median – a point, line, part or plane that is in the middle

interpolated – transitive verb to add one thing, often an unnessary item, between the existing parts of something else

extrapolated (great word) – both a transitive and intransitive verb to use known facts as the starting point from which to draw inferences or conclusions about something unknown

exponentials – rapidly growing in size, typically involves numbers or quantities raised to an exponent

JWcool: right back at ya