- Joined
- 3 March 2007
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There appears to be a fait accompli by some posters regarding the future of the oil price & an ignorance of the data showing that consumption is falling in established western economies and that the rate of consumption is also falling in the so called 'expanding' countries.
Dunno Uncle, looks pretty solid to me.
Care to join Wavepicker and put some beer on it?
JW
I'm sticking with my projections and they're only based on a phase one catalyst at present .
If I were a sober and astute investor I'd be buying the dips , but at present I'm too pissed to give a ....
But even though the State has paid for my nights entertainment , I'm more than certain that oil will achieve a price average of $140 pb ....... actually $142.80 , so IMHO $120.60 -$142.80 will see us out until 2014 at least in the median range ...... unless the unexpected pops up and chits all over my calculations .
Margins will be protected ! The rest is in our Lords hands .......... apologies to our athiest members , but the pri.ks keep shifting the goal posts , the more they shift them the closer $200 will get !
It is a curious mathematical convenience that number from 140 rise to 156, 162 and 168, and even higher.Well we've seen in the first target , yuck ......
I have 156 2nd 162 3rd 168 running in 4th place next.
Given your post suggested a price "average" and, separately, a "median range" to 2014 I can't work out exactly what you have achieved.Hmmm .... hypothesis or taking the p...
Given your post suggested a price "average" and, separately, a "median range" to 2014 I can't work out exactly what you have achieved.
What a load of mathematical mumbo jumbo!I have $108-$110 .
But it's how or what you do with the data . If you take that data and for example ..... placed it on a line chart ( linear ) . What can you do with it ?
Not much , depending on where you are extrapolating data from and what type of chart your using , I use my own input data ( points ) , where I can within reason identify long data rows , to interpolate between data points , then extrapolate beyond known data values ( I believe it's called projection / forecasting ) . It can be used for comparing different charts . To find and compare trends over time periods and the changes over periods of time . It can recognize correlations and covariations between variables . It can be only used when the X axis requires and interval scale and it’s useless unless the X axis has a numerical value . When convention defines a meaningful pattern it is of great benefit . The little straight lines we seen drawn all over linear charts are only of use to connect data points but when using a series of curves as well you are then able see just what represents functional relations between data points or to interpolate data ……… you know achieve an estimated value of a mathematical function with further input . But I pay more attentions to the curves as these can be measured ! IMHO .
I very much doubt that $200 will represent a long term peak price. Unless, that is, it causes the economy and thus oil consumption to fall in a heap (possible...).
Looking at the oil price forecast, our astroanalysis has us expecting a few
negative cycles for the oil price in 2008, but fill your tanks now, because
it would not be surprising to see POO hit $200/bbl, in 2009.
21 May - July 10 2009 ... POO will likely make its first attack at peak prices,
followed by another try, particularly around 16-25122009 ... !~!
What a load of mathematical mumbo jumbo!
A chart is just a 2-dimensional price map with axes that show the information you select, and are typically lineal or semi-log.
You don't "extrapolate" data from anywhere at all; you extrapolate date to some point/s.
Your "interpolation" doesn't explain anything, and if you are actually using interpolated data, you are using information that is not reliable and may have never existed.
To do justice to what you purport you do there will be some exceptionally complex maths.
I trust your maths is better than your explanations.
Passable!Yes my math is passable , I actually had an apology for you , the current median is $111.63 .
But after that load of cods , well what was it Neumann said ....... " In mathematics you don’t understand things. You just get used to them "
Well if the oil bulls are placing all their bets on Chindia to continue to propel the POO over $200 without any hint of global DEPRESSION then you will be right, but I can't bet against myself as a trader of the instrument in the meantimeThere appears to be a fait accompli by some posters regarding the future of the oil price & an ignorance of the data showing that consumption is falling in established western economies and that the rate of consumption is also falling in the so called 'expanding' countries.
Dunno Uncle, looks pretty solid to me.
Care to join Wavepicker and put some beer on it?
JW.
Don't laugh, but I actually think there is a hint of truth in the comment by Libya/OPEC that there could actually be an oil glut forming??
On a longer timescale, think of a sawtooth chart for oil with the dips corresponding to global recessions ie the dips will be almost vertical and severe, then a gradual climb again ...... there is no sustainable 'high' price for oil that the world can endure before economic contraction set's in... a peak oil cycle?
I have thought about it.On a longer timescale, think of a sawtooth chart for oil with the dips corresponding to global recessions ie the dips will be almost vertical and severe, then a gradual climb again ...... there is no sustainable 'high' price for oil that the world can endure before economic contraction set's in... a peak oil cycle?
There is a chance that the present malaise will spread and that oil will fall steeply in price - near term.
However, as in future years there appears no credible chance that crude oil can match demand the "sawtooth" scenario will be confined to rather small dips and not severe declines.
Until a viable (and cheap) alternative to oil for energy is found the world of commerce will bid up oil until demand destruction rather than recessions will be responsible for price dips.
As for the "oil glut", there is one building for sour crude - but it's not what the refiners want, so sweet light oil will continue to attract an expanding premium.
Passable!
Then you would know that the arithmetic average is not the median.
Given the median oil price is about $101 this calendar year you have erred well beyond one standard error.
My favourite from your earlier post is where your magic can recognise "covariations between variables". Oddly enough the linear difference between variables is the covariation.
In hindsight calling that post "mathematical mumbo jumbo" was overly generous.
Sorry Ms Wabbit, it must have been a syntax error :22_yikes:Hey Redrob,
The last post of yours, they were Uncle Festivus's words, you accidently quoted them from me................
JW
Hey Uncle,
so you are bullish oil in the short term as per your investments but bearish oil in the long term?
Am i reading your post correctly?
Well, let me know when you turn bearish long term on oil and i will propose a little wager for a carton of cold amber beverages just to keep you focused on your bearish thoughts.
Until then, $150.00 is within reach and the top will soon be knocked off the first of Wavepickers coldies...................
JW
Sorry Ms Wabbit, it must have been a syntax error :
I didn't notice it earlier as I was regressing the covariants to determine the median from the interpolated data I had extrapolated from the exponentials
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