Oil price discussion and analysis

[Wysiwyg]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

So the rumour in the financial media is that Israel is about to arrack Iran.

But if that happens, our world will change folks, the money we make from trading oil won't matter. Mark my words.

I just read a story on that about the comments from an Israeli deputy minister below .... Is a mans sanity measured by his wantoness to kill?

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - An Israeli attack on Iranian nuclear sites looks "unavoidable" given the apparent failure of sanctions to deny Tehran technology with bomb-making potential, one of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's deputies said on Friday.

"If Iran continues with its programme for developing nuclear weapons, we will attack it. The sanctions are ineffective," Transport Minister Shaul Mofaz told the mass-circulation Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper.

"Attacking Iran, in order to stop its nuclear plans, will be unavoidable," said the former army chief who has also been defence minister

.

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

I read about that news just after oil went para.

I knew something big was up, but that kind of talk is insane! Perhaps another continuation on Monday............

I'm now looking for gold to catch up! Since I missed the oil run (at least the futures), might be consolation at least to catch a decent gold run.

This weekend is going to be a long one!

 

[Wysiwyg]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

I read about that news just after oil went para.

I knew something big was up, but that kind of talk is insane! Perhaps another continuation on Monday............

I'm now looking for gold to catch up! Since I missed the oil run (at least the futures), might be consolation at least to catch a decent gold run.

This weekend is going to be a long one!

MrC. & co., a while back I was severely whipsawn a few times shorting crude at $108.I`m never going to try for highs and lows again and really should have hedged my bets.Ouch.

 

[Temjin]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

I read about that news just after oil went para.

I knew something big was up, but that kind of talk is insane! Perhaps another continuation on Monday............

I'm now looking for gold to catch up! Since I missed the oil run (at least the futures), might be consolation at least to catch a decent gold run.

This weekend is going to be a long one!

It's crazy! It just seem oil doesn't want to "correct" itself and keep going up. It doesn't fit me at all to put any new positions in. I guess I got out too early.

 

[JeSSica WaBBit]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Oh dear.....................anyone seen Wavepicker?

I want you boys to keep a close eye on him, keep checking his pulse and make sure you have the defibrillators on standby just incase he needs a zap. Got to ensure that he stays in good condition until oil hits $150.00 and i get my beverages.


JW

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

MrC. & co., a while back I was severely whipsawn a few times shorting crude at $108.I`m never going to try for highs and lows again and really should have hedged my bets.Ouch.

Yep, big mistake and a good lesson learnt. Occassionally I will try and pick a swing against the direction of the larger trend, but only if I see a lot of confluence. Other than that, definately better to go with the direction of the larger trend.

Though not really a whipsaw.

 

[M34N]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

It's a give in that oil will hit $150 p/barrel, but who is willing to guess where it will stop? Last 7 years shown below...

Insane to say the least. Why bother raising interest rates when oil will do a better job to slow down the economy!

 

[golfmos123]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Don't know whether this should go in the oil or gold threads....

With oil up strongly, do we expect to see gold chasing it now??? Or do we look for oil to come back to meet the POG???

 

[rub92me]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

So we have a parabolic chart, and something that looked to me a bit like a blow-off top. Not short yet, but a possibility for a bit of a pull-back perhaps before it goes to 500 dollar

 

[rederob]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

The official US line is that inventories have decreased due to shipping delays.

Oil is really one of the most non elastic resources when it comes to supply and demand pressures, but the priciple is still the same.

I wonder what the reason was this week....
If it's not "fundamentals" then the speculators will be in for a hiding soon.

 

[Aussiejeff]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

I wonder what the reason was this week....
If it's not "fundamentals" then the speculators will be in for a hiding soon.

For whatever reason, "US inventories" apparently have declined for 4 weeks straight. Could have some fundamental effect....

It would appear that "shorting" speculators would be the ones copping the hiding ATM.

AJ

 

[MRC & Co]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

It would appear that "shorting" speculators would be the ones copping the hiding ATM.

AJ

Rederob means copping a hiding in so far as being blamed for the price rise, despite no excess supply. If I interpreted correct.

 

[Temjin]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Just read an interesting article from Ted Butlet (yes, an ultra silver bug).

http://www.investmentrarities.com/06-10-08.html

But it's a bit related to oil futures and speculations.

It seems that the rise in oil prices aren't necessary blamed on the index funds speculating the commodity market by adding more and more long positions, but rather due to the people on the short side trying to cover their positions. It's amazing what a few short covering would do to a commodity price.

 

[rub92me]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

I looked at a chart a couple of days ago (can't remember where exactly, maybe the NYMEX) that showed a historical overview of the size of short positions of large institutional investors. That chart seemed to indicate that it was at a relatively low level, so I'm not convinced that this is a huge overhang (risk of short squeeze) at the moment. If anyone has the data/facts on this it would be great. I'll have another look this evening to see if I can track it down.

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

For whatever reason, "US inventories" apparently have declined for 4 weeks straight. Could have some fundamental effect....

Yep. Rising consumption without a corresponding rise in production. The only way you can do that is by drawing down inventories.

It's no different to water in a dam, something Austalia has already learnt about the hard way. If you start with a balanced situation (outflow equal to inflow) then the inflow drops whilst outflows increase then the level in the dam must go down. Until, that is, it's empty. Then you get outright shortage, something I'm convinced we'll see with oil at some point (though probably not for a while yet).

 

[Aussiejeff]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Yep. Rising consumption without a corresponding rise in production. The only way you can do that is by drawing down inventories...

No probs, Smurf. Those sly, secretive Saudis appear to have unlimited unspecified crude capacity and will simply up the output whenever the West whimpers....

I'm beginning to wonder whether I'll actually be around to see what happens the first time they say "Errr.... no....Mr President....we have been lying. In fact, our reserves have declined more than we would admit and we actually have have no more capacity to increase output....period! "


AJ

 

[Tysonboss1]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

No probs, Smurf. Those sly, secretive Saudis appear to have unlimited unspecified crude capacity and will simply up the output whenever the West whimpers....

AJ

Well for now that seems to be the case,.... with another 500,000 Barrels a day coming out of saudi feilds it should ease some upward pressure on prices,

Will this extra production be enough to spook the speculaters into dumping oil,... who knows time will tell. If it does then we may see oil drop to $110.00,

Saudi feilds can't continue to increase production indefiantly though, as the rest of the world declines. interesting to see where we are at by XMAS.

 

[ithatheekret]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

The Saudis say they'll raise output by 200K/bpd , but capacity globally has peaked .

Personally I feel the only way oil output will rise , is if they hold it above their heads !

The only move within OPEC that I've liked to date is Indonesia declaring an exit , a move which I applaud .

 

[rederob]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Despite politicians trying to knock down oil prices, the reality is that market players are running a risky, quasi-speculative agenda, underpinned by wafer thin fundamentals.
US inventories are failing to build for yet another week, and driving season is nearby.
Nigerian oil platforms were yesterday attacked, despite them being 100km offshore.
The US continues to push for more sanctions against Iran, despite their control over Straits of Hormuz, responsible for about 20% of Arabian oil outflows via tanker.
China and other fuel subsidising nations are gradually moving oil prices to more commercial levels, and we have yet to see if this will impact demand.
Tanker oil movements suggest a recent outflow peak, and that the Saudis are running at production capacity: Short term, even if they could pump more oil they probably couldn't get their hands on more tankers to deliver it.
Then there's the chart action:
This shows RSI moving to neutral - an area which has generated each of the recent northbound price impulses.

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

The Saudis say they'll raise output by 200K/bpd , but capacity globally has peaked .

Personally I feel the only way oil output will rise , is if they hold it above their heads !

The only move within OPEC that I've liked to date is Indonesia declaring an exit , a move which I applaud .

You applaud the depletion of Indonesia's oil fields? They've only left OPEC because they're now a net oil importer with declining production. They've peaked...