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Oil price discussion and analysis

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Re: OIL AGAIN!

Consumers in Chindia about to pay real prices for their fuel as their governments try to reduce the burden of subsidies? Demand side negative?

India and China are starting to get the message that they cannot buy oil cheap and sell by-products like gas and diesel low. When the deficits start to hit hundreds of billion of dollars, the action is a little harder to swallow
China has already started to back off of the practice of supplying more and more capital to support state-controlled oil operations like PetroChina (PTR) and China Petroleum (SNP). Now, India is matching that. According to MarketWatch, "The latest moves are expected to ease the losses at state-controlled oil-refining and marketing firms like Indian Oil Corp."

The fact that consumers and businesses in the two huge countries will have to pay significantly more for the gas that runs their cars, the diesel that runs their truck, and the oil that heats their homes could do some real damage to consumer spending and GDP growth in those countries. It is not totally unlike the choices that are being made in the US.

The net impact on the economies in India and China is that they may have to raise export prices to offset a decline in consumer spending. There are very few other alternatives to keep GDP improvements in hand.

Those more expensive exports will be marketed into the US and other parts of the West where there are buyer's strikes due to poor credit markets and rising commodities prices.

Keeping fuel prices low may have pushed economic growth higher in China and India, but it is time to pay the piper. His compensation has been deferred for too long.
Click to expand...

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={C1D685F3-2C91-45E1-A49F-F200A5D68AB9}
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

Crude oil for July delivery rose 22 cents to $128.01 a barrel at 8:35 a.m. Sydney time in after-hours trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures reached a record $135.09 a barrel on May 22 and are up 94 percent from a year earlier.

Yesterday, oil rose $5.49, or 4.5 percent, to $127.79 a barrel, the highest close since May 28. It was the biggest one- day gain since March 26. Prices rose as much as $6.08 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading.

"This huge move is attributed to the weaker dollar,'' said Nauman Barakat, senior vice president of global energy futures at Macquarie Futures USA Inc. in New York. "If the Europeans decide to raise interest rates, the dollar will be back on skid row.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602013&sid=a0mQZbkMoMc4&refer=commodity_futures


The roller-coaster continues....

One question I have is what alternative to oil based jet fuel do airlines have?

Seems if prices head up towards $150 barrel and beyond, many airlines including Qantas, VB etc are going to find it tough to keep flying. The flow-on effect to the tourism industry world-wide will be catastrophic if prices remain high. All the focus seems to be on alternative fuels for land based transport, but WHAT ABOUT THE AIRLINES? :confused:

Will Rudd & Co. have to bail out our fearless flyers?

Or.....biodiesel powered blimps perhaps? Now there's a thought. Anyone remember the affectionately? named "Bondy's Blimp" from WA? LOL


AJ
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

brty said:
Boeing are working on using bio fuel in existing engines.

http://www.boeing.com/news/releases/2007/q3/070928b_nr.html

Might be a bit more powerful than a blimp.

brty
Click to expand...

Unfortunately, apart from a viable biofuel for aviation probably not being widely available for an unknown number of years, the new "20% more fuel efficient" jets won't be available until sometime into 2010 either. Will airlines survive till then if oil continues to push higher?


AJ
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

Aussiejeff said:
Unfortunately, apart from a viable biofuel for aviation probably not being widely available for an unknown number of years, the new "20% more fuel efficient" jets won't be available until sometime into 2010 either. Will airlines survive till then if oil continues to push higher?


AJ
Click to expand...

yeah,... Just less flights every day, planes won't take off unless fully booked with expensive seats and big fuel levies,

The days of sydney to brisbane flights for $49 are numbered.
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

All the small cap. oilers on my watchlist got chopped down today.I don`t know if this means a dropping crude price next week but there was some desperate exits right up to the close.
Thought I would share that observation.:cool:






.
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

Wysiwyg said:
All the small cap. oilers on my watchlist got chopped down today.I don`t know if this means a dropping crude price next week but there was some desperate exits right up to the close.
Thought I would share that observation.:cool:
Click to expand...

Likely that many are taking profits, believing $128 will not hold.
I think oil is still a bit pricey, but the bottom line seems to be that upside risk continues to be the norm, with shorters being severely punished.
Last nights 6% gain was not on the back of USD weakness: The USD was simply a catalyst that wrong-footed speculators who kept running to cover.
Looking at the US situation with regard to inventories, there is no good news.
Almost across the board inventories are down, imports are lower, and available days of stock is in decline. Although there is little doubt that high prices are impacting demand, the other reality is that the US puts many millions of trucks and cars on the road each year, and to accommodate this it is essential that inventories rise year on year: This is not happening.
Charts and data can be found at:
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip.asp
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

Tysonboss1 said:
I think the $95.00 mark is as safe. But I am really not sure where oil will go over the next 1/4,... there is scope for it to drop towards the $100 - $110 area if these "speculaters or conspiritors" change mood.
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Surely we can now punt on $120 being the absolute minimum it will fall to!
Maybe too early to call that one....
Ok, but we're over $130 again tonight, meaning the dip to low '20s was well bought into.
This is a heavy bull, rather than a powerful bull.
That is, it can hold an overweight position for long periods without smashing up the China shop.
I note from some threads on oil equities that there was selling pressure today.
I can only say that if you are still just a casual observer of where oil is heading, and reluctant to dip your toe into the water, you might just miss some good buying opportunities: Oil equities are still being priced on sub $100 oil and this is a massive failure from the analytical community. For 2009 if you are pricing an equity's reserves at $150 per barrel, you will still be making a conservative estimate of value.
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

Holey Dooley!

I hope all you CL and QM traders are on this run. Just one contract would have paid for fuel for the Bentley for months. :cool:
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

wayneL said:
Holey Dooley!

I hope all you CL and QM traders are on this run. Just one contract would have paid for fuel for the Bentley for months. :cool:
Click to expand...

Where was my reminder Wayne? :(

It was one of those, 'head was turned' moments! :eek:

Few equity oil positions were triggered, but with the market tumbling, they aren't much help!
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

Talk about parabolic!!!!!!

I don't think I have ever seen so many consecutive flags in such a short period of time!

Cannot possibly run any further in the short-term, can it?

Cannot believe I slept and didn't keep a firm eye on oil after waiting around for it's run! What a missed opportunity! :banghead: Will have to make do with my lousy oil equities now.

Hope you weren't trading the mini contract Wayne!

I'm trying to flog off my private jet now, but cash converters even turned me down! :eek:
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

MRC & Co said:
Talk about parabolic!!!!!!

I don't think I have ever seen so many consecutive flags in such a short period of time!

Cannot possibly run any further in the short-term, can it?

Cannot believe I slept and didn't keep a firm eye on oil after waiting around for it's run! What a missed opportunity! :banghead: Will have to make do with my lousy oil equities now.

Hope you weren't trading the mini contract Wayne!

I'm trying to flog off my private jet now, but cash converters even turned me down! :eek:
Click to expand...
QM is not liquid enough out of hours... CL all the way for me.

I had a potential buyer for the Hummer, but he wanted me to send him the fuel to come and look. As he lives on the other side of Cheltenham (3 miles) it was going to cost me more than the Hummer is worth.

... in talks with the Museum of Human Lunacy.
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

kennas said:
You selling Hummers now Wayne?

You must be doing it tough at the moment.

Or, perhaps I have a different definition of a 'hummer'. :eek:

:D
Click to expand...
:eek:Now I have to get that image out of my mind.:eek:

So the rumour in the financial media is that Israel is about to arrack Iran.

Of course this will send oil etc Ape ****.

But if that happens, our world will change folks, the money we make from trading oil won't matter. Mark my words. :2twocents
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

wayneL said:
So the rumour in the financial media is that Israel is about to arrack Iran.

Of course this will send oil etc Ape ****.

But if that happens, our world will change folks, the money we make from trading oil won't matter. Mark my words. :2twocents
Click to expand...
Do any ministers in the Middle East or West Asia understand the word 'deplomacy'? :confused:

I can't help but think that eventually, they will get what they all want. :(

And I can't imagine where oil and gold will go...
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

kennas said:
Do any ministers in the Middle East or West Asia understand the word 'deplomacy'? :confused:

I can't help but think that eventually, they will get what they all want. :(

And I can't imagine where oil and gold will go...
Click to expand...

"Diplomacy" - the building of workable international relationships.

"Deplomacy" - the dismantling of workable international relationships.


LOL

:)


AJ

PSsssttt: I AM NOT a Middle East or West Asian Minister!!!
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

Aussiejeff said:
"Diplomacy" - the building of workable international relationships.

"Deplomacy" - the dismantling of workable international relationships.


LOL

:)


AJ

PSsssttt: I AM NOT a Middle East or West Asian Minister!!!
Click to expand...
:) LOL. Damn spell cheacker!!! he he
 

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