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Oil price discussion and analysis

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Re: OIL AGAIN!

:)
rederob said:
Lucky it's not three strikes and you are out!
Presently the oil market is being well bought into on price weakness, as evidenced by a dip into the low $120s during the week that was very, very shortlived.
It shows that oil's "bullishness" is not yet exhausted in the short term, although a correction is warranted.
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yes, your right... lucky for me:) Correction is warranted... but overall long trend is bullish... a pullback to $100 - $115 would be great buying... It wouldn't suprise me to see a drop to $100 so the institutions can load up.

That rebound, mmmm I think it has more to do with options expiration... but now that is out of the way, we shall see.:2twocents
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

I think we're just a few weeks away from the US Memorial day , the last Mem. day , oil had peaked then corrected . It could be the same catalyst for a correction coming up again , but it does not mean the oil bull market is finished , just taking a cyclical pause .....................
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

Does anybody have any thoughts on beach petroleum.ltd.

I thinking of taking a postion just looking for any thoughts or opinions people had on ths stock.
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

Tysonboss1 said:
Does anybody have any thoughts on beach petroleum.ltd.

I thinking of taking a postion just looking for any thoughts or opinions people had on ths stock.
Click to expand...

Definately in a bullish pattern... break out, pull back, break out, pull back... the problem is that the last day has shown some weakness (heavy volume on a topping tail candle)... it is going to pull back again... i would be a buyer at the $1.25 - $1.27 ish mark:2twocents
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

Iran oil minister sees no need for OPEC meeting

TEHRAN, May 18 (Reuters) - The Iranian oil minister said in remarks published on Sunday that he did not see the need for an emergency meeting of OPEC and expected crude prices to rise with any weakening in the U.S. dollar.

Oil prices shot to a record high on Friday near $128 despite an offer of more supply from Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

"I believe there is no need for an (emergency) OPEC meeting, until/or after oil breaches $150.00 per barrel and Jessica Wabbit and i share an icy cold beer" Gholamhossein Nozari told Fars News Agency when asked if the group should meet before a scheduled gathering in September. "Why should there be this meeting when oil prices go up and ice cold beer is only $23.00 away?"

"Currently, OPEC members are using their full capacity and are supplying their oil (to the market) ... With oil at $126 (a barrel), it is not wise for those who have oil not to supply it," he said in an interview that Fars said took place last week.

"As long as the decrease in the dollar's value continues, oil prices will continue to rise. I believe that it is not oil becoming more expensive, it is the dollar becoming cheaper," the minister said. (Reporting by Zahra Hosseinian; Editing by Alan Raybould)

Wasikly Wabbits :cool::D:cool:
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

From the telegraph today -

http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/money/story/0,26860,23717490-5015799,00.html

Profit from the oil price boom
THE price of oil is hitting new highs, crippling motorists and businesses across the world.

According to the first Sensis Consumer Report for 2008 -- one of the nation's best indicative surveys -- rising petrol costs are officially the number one concern for Australian residents.

Last week crude oil reached a staggering $127 a barrel, and experts say these record highs appear well supported in the short term by healthy demand and concerns about supply.

But rather than moan and groan, analysts are suggesting savvy consumers adopt a classic, perhaps even cliched, approach to hedge themselves against the surging prices.
If you can't beat them, join them. Or in this case, buy them.
Click to expand...

"Death of equities" anyone??

:run:
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

If you can believe OPEC????

LONDON: Opec yesterday trimmed its forecast for global growth in oil demand in 2008, the latest sign that record oil prices are slowing consumption in the industrialised world.

The exporter group also cut its estimate for oil supply from non-member countries in 2008, leading to a slight increase in the amount of crude its 13 members need to pump to balance the market.
World oil demand will rise by 1.16mn bpd this year led by Asia, the Middle East and Latin America, 40,000 bpd less than the previous forecast

http://www.gulf-times.com/site/topi...=218653&version=1&template_id=48&parent_id=28

___________________________________

The Bush administration yesterday halted purchases of crude oil for the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve, reversing its policy on the emergency reserve three days after Congress voted overwhelmingly in favor of suspending the purchases to ease the upward pressure on oil prices.

Bush's reversal came on the day that Saudi Arabia announced that it was increasing its output by 300,000 barrels a day for the month of June

Oil markets treated both announcements skeptically

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/16/AR2008051603579.html
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

All roads lead to Goldman Sachs in this little market manipulation excercise.

It's still hitting intraday records, but the daily thrust's we have been used to are losing momentum. When GS determines the time is right they will dump like they did before, or are memories that short?

It's getting very ICEy? Follow the money trail?
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

rederob said:
Is it the corner after last night's record close I wonder.
Or is it a blind corner.
Short sighted!
Click to expand...

If you look at price action and volume, prices have remained at the current approx level, but volume is increasing... looks like a transfer of risk from the big guy to the little...
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

haunting said:
http://www.engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net/print/Oil%20Speculation.html

- PERHAPS 60% OF TODAY'S OIL PRICE IS PURE SPECULATION
Click to expand...

By F. William Engdahl, 2 May 2008
By purchasing large numbers of futures contracts, and thereby pushing up futures prices to even higher levels than current prices, speculators have provided a financial incentive for oil companies to buy even more oil and place it in storage. A refiner will purchase extra oil today, even if it costs $115 per barrel, if the futures price is even higher.

As a result, over the past two years crude oil inventories have been steadily growing, resulting in US crude oil inventories that are now higher than at any time in the previous eight years. The large influx of speculative investment into oil futures has led to a situation where we have both high supplies of crude oil and high crude oil prices.
Click to expand...
Engdahl has a classic case of manipulating information to suit a purpose.
It would surprise few people to learn that US oil stocks (reserves of oil squirreled away) have increased in the past 8 years.
So too has the US population, the number of vehicles on the road, and the size of their engines.
He forgot to notice, however, that in the past 2 years, oil inventories have actually been declining. In fact commercial crude inventories are down over 16% in the past year.
Maybe 60% of the writers on oil believe what they spruik.
Shame they are not too bright.
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

Not seeking an argument here. I was focusing on this section. The subprime problem was caused by the deregulation of banks and the loss of control and monitoring on the sector (esp. on the CDO). No one can rule out a similar problem in the unregulated exchanges in the futures market.

As that US Senate report noted:

“Until recently, US energy futures were traded exclusively on regulated exchanges within the United States, like the NYMEX, which are subject to extensive oversight by the CFTC, including ongoing monitoring to detect and prevent price manipulation or fraud. In recent years, however, there has been a tremendous growth in the trading of contracts that look and are structured just like futures contracts, but which are traded on unregulated OTC electronic markets. Because of their similarity to futures contracts they are often called “futures look-alikes.”

The only practical difference between futures look-alike contracts and futures contracts is that the look-alikes are traded in unregulated markets whereas futures are traded on regulated exchanges. The trading of energy commodities by large firms on OTC electronic exchanges was exempted from CFTC oversight by a provision inserted at the behest of Enron and other large energy traders into the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000 in the waning hours of the 106th Congress.

The impact on market oversight has been substantial. NYMEX traders, for example, are required to keep records of all trades and report large trades to the CFTC. These Large Trader Reports, together with daily trading data providing price and volume information, are the CFTC’s primary tools to gauge the extent of speculation in the markets and to detect, prevent, and prosecute price manipulation. CFTC Chairman Reuben Jeffrey recently stated: “The Commission’s Large Trader information system is one of the cornerstones of our surveillance program and enables detection of concentrated and coordinated positions that might be used by one or more traders to attempt manipulation.”

In contrast to trades conducted on the NYMEX, traders on unregulated OTC electronic exchanges are not required to keep records or file Large Trader Reports with the CFTC, and these trades are exempt from routine CFTC oversight. In contrast to trades conducted on regulated futures exchanges, there is no limit on the number of contracts a speculator may hold on an unregulated OTC electronic exchange, no monitoring of trading by the exchange itself, and no reporting of the amount of outstanding contracts (“open interest”) at the end of each day.”

Then, apparently to make sure the way was opened really wide to potential market oil price manipulation, in January 2006, the Bush Administration’s CFTC permitted the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the leading operator of electronic energy exchanges, to use its trading terminals in the United States for the trading of US crude oil futures on the ICE futures exchange in London – called “ICE Futures.”

Previously, the ICE Futures exchange in London had traded only in European energy commodities – Brent crude oil and United Kingdom natural gas. As a United Kingdom futures market, the ICE Futures exchange is regulated solely by the UK Financial Services Authority. In 1999, the London exchange obtained the CFTC’s permission to install computer terminals in the United States to permit traders in New York and other US cities to trade European energy commodities through the ICE exchange.
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

haunting said:
Not seeking an argument here. I was focusing on this section. The subprime problem was caused by the deregulation of banks and the loss

As that US Senate report noted:...
Click to expand...
Me neither.
The senate Report is 2 years old.
The "facts" of the linked article are dubious.
A lot has happened in fundamental terms since crude output peaked in 2005.
To lay the price increase mostly on speculation is drawing a long bow, in my book.
There is speculation in all markets.
However, where the speculators are also taking delivery of oil somewhat debunks the concept of speculation!
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

ShareIt said:
If you look at price action and volume, prices have remained at the current approx level, but volume is increasing... looks like a transfer of risk from the big guy to the little...
Click to expand...
If you look at price action, prices have been constantly increasing.
wavepicker's retrace to the "teens" before another rally never occurred.

Another record close overnight - $129.01 as I post and knocking on the door of $130
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

Crude oil rose above $129 a barrel in New York for the first time after billionaire hedge-fund manager Boone Pickens said oil will reach $150 a barrel this year because supply isn't keeping up with demand.
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He's got a great track record -

Pickens's BP Capital Energy Equity Fund fell 14 percent in the first two months of the year amid soaring prices for natural gas and crude oil. He told CNBC on Feb. 21 that he was short on both oil and natural gas.
``Pickens is well respected in the industry, even though he made the mistake of shorting oil in February,'' said Brad Samples, commodity analyst for Summit Energy Inc. in Louisville, Kentucky.
Click to expand...

Self perpetuating bull ramp speculation?

The weakening dollar prompted the purchase of commodities as a hedge against the currency's decline.
Click to expand...

Which is it - demand or a $US play?

Where are these demand figures that seemingly go up every day??
 

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