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Oil price discussion and analysis
- Thread starter wayneL
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Regarding demand, there are no large stockpiles of oil sitting around. Whatever is refined is consumed. There is only a small shortfall between supply and demand but it's the fragility of supply that's putting a price premium, there's no slack in the system and there's continual supply problems like North Sea, Nigeria etc.
Also already built into the price is the projected future growth in demand from BRIC nations.
The demand for oil is unresponsive to price increases, it's inelastic demand, so we need very large price increases for demand to fall significantly. In the commercial sector there is already a major trend towards substitition of oil to natural gas, which is now the hottest energy sector.
From my own investment point of view, I needed to know whether oil was gonna break through the $120 level, before making investments in oil company stocks. It was a big decision for me because I had to sell some tech stocks to buy the oil stocks and I wanted to make sure oil wasn't going to rebound down into the teens, or down to the $100 mark.
I have heard this year there's has been a 95 percent correlation between $US and Euro exchange rate movements, and the price in $US of oil. Hedging $US is a major factor in the oil price.
Regarding demand, there are no large stockpiles of oil sitting around. Whatever is refined is consumed. There is only a small shortfall between supply and demand but it's the fragility of supply that's putting a price premium, there's no slack in the system and there's continual supply problems like North Sea, Nigeria etc.
Also already built into the price is the projected future growth in demand from BRIC nations.
The demand for oil is unresponsive to price increases, it's inelastic demand, so we need very large price increases for demand to fall significantly. In the commercial sector there is already a major trend towards substitition of oil to natural gas, which is now the hottest energy sector.
From my own investment point of view, I needed to know whether oil was gonna break through the $120 level, before making investments in oil company stocks. It was a big decision for me because I had to sell some tech stocks to buy the oil stocks and I wanted to make sure oil wasn't going to rebound down into the teens, or down to the $100 mark.
Re: OIL AGAIN!
Just get ready.... the more I see it go up, the bigger the smile on my face
Just get ready.... the more I see it go up, the bigger the smile on my face
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
lol, they been saying that for a while now - although in the best interest of the consumer i would like to see it down, i can't see it happening
i herd they marked 150 for oil
lol, they been saying that for a while now - although in the best interest of the consumer i would like to see it down, i can't see it happening
i herd they marked 150 for oil
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Isn't substitution responsive?? Each dollar it goes up someone either has to pay more for something or someone else gets less profit (apart from the suppliers), to the point where it's unprofitable eg airlines going bankrupt or passing the costs on resulting in fewer customers and so on down the line.
The daisy chain negative vortex sucking the global economy down?
Isn't substitution responsive?? Each dollar it goes up someone either has to pay more for something or someone else gets less profit (apart from the suppliers), to the point where it's unprofitable eg airlines going bankrupt or passing the costs on resulting in fewer customers and so on down the line.
The daisy chain negative vortex sucking the global economy down?
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Yes Uncle, that is correct.
Oil, as far as direct consumption from your local service station is inelastic.
However, oil is part of the value added in just about every product produced throughout the world, so as such, will show elasticity.
Yes Uncle, that is correct.
Oil, as far as direct consumption from your local service station is inelastic.
However, oil is part of the value added in just about every product produced throughout the world, so as such, will show elasticity.
Re: OIL AGAIN!
I agree substitution is responsive but not yet happening enough in consumer sector. In industry it's already happened ... for decades taxis have run on natural gas but it's gonna take a while to replace every petrol guzzling car in the world. Another problem is that Chinese government subsidizes petrol cost to the consumer, so no slowdown there yet. In Brazil diesel is heavily subsidized by the government.
I agree substitution is responsive but not yet happening enough in consumer sector. In industry it's already happened ... for decades taxis have run on natural gas but it's gonna take a while to replace every petrol guzzling car in the world. Another problem is that Chinese government subsidizes petrol cost to the consumer, so no slowdown there yet. In Brazil diesel is heavily subsidized by the government.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a79UU6p.il.s&refer=home
michael_selway
Coal & Phosphate, thats it!
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
They will pass it onto consumers
Thing is Australian's have accumulated quite a bit of wealth over the last few years, so these higher costs wont be felt as such, maybe later on
thx
MS
They will pass it onto consumers
Thing is Australian's have accumulated quite a bit of wealth over the last few years, so these higher costs wont be felt as such, maybe later on
thx
MS
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Looking forward to $150.00 oil and cracking the top off one of Wavepickers beers, if we break $130.00 tonight a change of underwear could be in order for the shorters.....................
'Just get ready.... the more I see it go up, the bigger the smile on my face', must agree with you there Shareit, my Cue Energy Resources shares are well on their way to showing me a 200% profit.
Its been a dream ride.................and i reckon there is plenty more in the tank yet!
The smaller oilers are going to need to be revalued if oil holds above $120.00 or increases towards $150.00. CUE based there revenue projections on $55.00 a barrel, not much more needs to be said.
JW - happy days
Looking forward to $150.00 oil and cracking the top off one of Wavepickers beers, if we break $130.00 tonight a change of underwear could be in order for the shorters.....................'Just get ready.... the more I see it go up, the bigger the smile on my face', must agree with you there Shareit, my Cue Energy Resources shares are well on their way to showing me a 200% profit.
Its been a dream ride.................and i reckon there is plenty more in the tank yet!
The smaller oilers are going to need to be revalued if oil holds above $120.00 or increases towards $150.00. CUE based there revenue projections on $55.00 a barrel, not much more needs to be said.
JW - happy days
michael_selway
Coal & Phosphate, thats it!
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
How long have you held CUE for an whats the expected mine life of CUE atm?
thx
MS
'Just get ready.... the more I see it go up, the bigger the smile on my face', must agree with you there Shareit, my Cue Energy Resources shares are well on their way to showing me a 200% profit.
Its been a dream ride.................and i reckon there is plenty more in the tank yet!
The smaller oilers are going to need to be revalued if oil holds above $120.00 or increases towards $150.00. CUE based there revenue projections on $55.00 a barrel, not much more needs to be said.
JW - happy days
How long have you held CUE for an whats the expected mine life of CUE atm?
thx
MS
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Hi Michael,
Held Cue since December 2006, bought at 12.5cents
Go to this link and read the 2007 Annual Report/Operations - easier than me trying to type it all. It provides a good outline of whats happening. Check out a few of the more recent announcements as well.
http://cuenrg.onlinepublicity.net/index.php?id=13
Singapore Pertoleum Company was buying large quantities ofstock but since prices have recently increased they have gone quiet. They were buying anything 22.5 cents or lower.
We are currently drilling Cobra 1 well and looking to begin production in the Maari field before years end.
Gas to begin to come on stream next year and ramping up through 2009.
Looks pretty good and if we can find a large oil or gas deposit along the way it should give the SP a nice kick along.
Mind you, $150.00 oil should go a long way to providing a catalyst.
JW
Hi Michael,
Held Cue since December 2006, bought at 12.5cents
Go to this link and read the 2007 Annual Report/Operations - easier than me trying to type it all. It provides a good outline of whats happening. Check out a few of the more recent announcements as well.
http://cuenrg.onlinepublicity.net/index.php?id=13
Singapore Pertoleum Company was buying large quantities ofstock but since prices have recently increased they have gone quiet. They were buying anything 22.5 cents or lower.
We are currently drilling Cobra 1 well and looking to begin production in the Maari field before years end.
Gas to begin to come on stream next year and ramping up through 2009.
Looks pretty good and if we can find a large oil or gas deposit along the way it should give the SP a nice kick along.
Mind you, $150.00 oil should go a long way to providing a catalyst.
JW
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Just a point that most won't have noticed, oil futures have gone into contango right throughout the whole strip. This is not normal for oil, backwardation is normal.
http://www2.barchart.com/dfutpage.asp?sym=CL&code=BSTK§ion=energies
Make of that what you will.
** Contango => deferred contracts are more expensive as you get further out in expiry
** Backwardation => deferred contracts are cheaper as you get further out in expiry
Just a point that most won't have noticed, oil futures have gone into contango right throughout the whole strip. This is not normal for oil, backwardation is normal.
http://www2.barchart.com/dfutpage.asp?sym=CL&code=BSTK§ion=energies
Make of that what you will.
** Contango => deferred contracts are more expensive as you get further out in expiry
** Backwardation => deferred contracts are cheaper as you get further out in expiry
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
A very convenient justification for OPEC to not raise production - because they can't.
Hmm... A one month increase. Anyone with a few tanks can draw 300,000 barrels per day out of them for a month. This would certainly fit with the recent pattern of short term output hikes that aren't sustained.
Starting to wake up...
A few observations of my own on this subject:
1. For the past couple of weeks petrol seems to be the hot topic wherever I go - and that's mostly amongst non-energy people. The notion that the days of cheap oil are over seems to be setting in even amongst those with boats or performance cars, both of which use lots of the stuff.
2. I ordered a large volume of a common plastic product this week. Bottom line is none in stock with the usual supplier, none in the state (Tas) and none immediately available from that company in Melbourne either. And, this is what really set the alarm bells ringing, the manufacturer (in Vic I assume) has run out of raw materials thus can not quote a delivery date.
Whilst I ended up paying a 20% price premium to go with another supplier who had stock, it's a worrying sign to realise that the situation has come to this. It could be a coincidence, but they've never run out before to my knowledge.
At best the manufacturer was speculating on a fall in materials prices and got it wrong. At worst there's an outright shortage that is starting to show up.
A very convenient justification for OPEC to not raise production - because they can't.
Hmm... A one month increase. Anyone with a few tanks can draw 300,000 barrels per day out of them for a month. This would certainly fit with the recent pattern of short term output hikes that aren't sustained.
Starting to wake up...
A few observations of my own on this subject:
1. For the past couple of weeks petrol seems to be the hot topic wherever I go - and that's mostly amongst non-energy people. The notion that the days of cheap oil are over seems to be setting in even amongst those with boats or performance cars, both of which use lots of the stuff.
2. I ordered a large volume of a common plastic product this week. Bottom line is none in stock with the usual supplier, none in the state (Tas) and none immediately available from that company in Melbourne either. And, this is what really set the alarm bells ringing, the manufacturer (in Vic I assume) has run out of raw materials thus can not quote a delivery date.
Whilst I ended up paying a 20% price premium to go with another supplier who had stock, it's a worrying sign to realise that the situation has come to this. It could be a coincidence, but they've never run out before to my knowledge.
At best the manufacturer was speculating on a fall in materials prices and got it wrong. At worst there's an outright shortage that is starting to show up.
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Another view fwiw (for interest sake):
Another view fwiw (for interest sake):
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Not always, depends on the market structure. Many can simply not pass it on, this is why Monopoly (both buyer and seller) power is of such paramount importance in these times.
Only certain Australian's have accumulated wealth, I bet many in rural areas are really struggling!
Not always, depends on the market structure. Many can simply not pass it on, this is why Monopoly (both buyer and seller) power is of such paramount importance in these times.
Only certain Australian's have accumulated wealth, I bet many in rural areas are really struggling!
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Good point Wayne, this is genearlly bullish is it not? No bother, just read your next post.
Not sure how long Contango has been in effect, but I just noticed the same earlier this afternoon......
Good point Wayne, this is genearlly bullish is it not? No bother, just read your next post.
Not sure how long Contango has been in effect, but I just noticed the same earlier this afternoon......
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
The reasons for contango/backwardation are not always straightforward and/or transparent, that's why I posted the bearish trader's view. I don't know whether it's bullish or not, but worth highlighting anyway.
The reasons for contango/backwardation are not always straightforward and/or transparent, that's why I posted the bearish trader's view. I don't know whether it's bullish or not, but worth highlighting anyway.
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Ah k.
Who knows, that bearish trader may have a way out of the money, long dated put, so he stands to loose little and make a dime or two!
Ah k.
Who knows, that bearish trader may have a way out of the money, long dated put, so he stands to loose little and make a dime or two!
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Re: OIL AGAIN!
Gentlemen,
You know i have my money on $150.00 oil, but, the way i see it is that you just trade the trend no matter which way it goes whether you are buying/selling commodities or equities.
You have to be bonkers to get in the way of a strongly trending commodity or equity thinking you can pick the top or bottom. I would have thought it would be much wiser to go with the trend with a trailing stop loss then once you get closed out wait for the market to clearly show you it has reversed then go short and ride the opposite direction.
Well, thats my plan. If you take profits along the way and slowly reduce your holdings as the price rises you put yourself in an even stronger position and reduce your risk.
Obviously oil will take a breather or have a reversal at some time but i thought that with very strong trending patterns the biggest push is always just before the reversal. If thats the case then oil should run further and stronger before it reverses.
So my opinion is that you should be long with a trailing stop until it clearly shows you it has reversed the trend, then just go short?
Regardless of what the bears are saying the price is still rising, i will get off when it is clearly falling.
Seems logical to me.........................
Gentlemen,
You know i have my money on $150.00 oil, but, the way i see it is that you just trade the trend no matter which way it goes whether you are buying/selling commodities or equities.
You have to be bonkers to get in the way of a strongly trending commodity or equity thinking you can pick the top or bottom. I would have thought it would be much wiser to go with the trend with a trailing stop loss then once you get closed out wait for the market to clearly show you it has reversed then go short and ride the opposite direction.
Well, thats my plan. If you take profits along the way and slowly reduce your holdings as the price rises you put yourself in an even stronger position and reduce your risk.
Obviously oil will take a breather or have a reversal at some time but i thought that with very strong trending patterns the biggest push is always just before the reversal. If thats the case then oil should run further and stronger before it reverses.
So my opinion is that you should be long with a trailing stop until it clearly shows you it has reversed the trend, then just go short?
Regardless of what the bears are saying the price is still rising, i will get off when it is clearly falling.
Seems logical to me.........................
