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Oil price discussion and analysis

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Re: OIL AGAIN!

There are some who have, for as long as I've known about the subject (1980's), been denying that peak oil is real. Despite all the evidence in fields, in countries etc they somehow think global production will keep growing forever.

They seem to have gone a bit quiet lately...
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

Does anyone know of an Australian company with plans to start producing sythetic ULP and Diesel using GTL,...

Arrow energy mentioned they have done a study on it and it looks strong from both a technology and economic perspective.

I was just wondering if any company actually had laid plans to do it.
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

Either way, technically or fundamentally, a 15% surge in 6 days is stretching it a bit - some sort of relief pause is due?

There has always been a proviso attached to any view of the oil price, that being, "barring any drastic downturn in the world economy". Well, that event may be closer than we think, as the US determines wether their recession will be mild or severe and the EU & the rest of the world attempts to smother the emergence of super stagflation.

When will the oil price factor in a synchronised global recession? A nice head & shoulders is still developing - the fall will be spectacular?
 

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Re: OIL AGAIN!

I'm not so sure about spectacular, but some kind of pullback is definatley in order IMO. Perhaps similar to gold, and I am waiting for it to try and catch a trend with this one.

I am still very long-term bullish on both oil and gold.

Very simple for me, production is simply not, and never going to catch demand IMO, whilst gold has to catch up sometime with the world inflation.
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

Is the price of oil being kept artificially high? The oil companies are reporting astronomical profits, aren't they? OPEC controls the supply and are deliberately keeping it subdued as they reckon that even if they increased supply it wouldn't help prices doesn't make a lot of sense. If you are interested in this sort of stuff look here :

http://www.prisonplanet.com/archives/peak_oil/index.htm

The chart looks like it is in full-blast blow-off mode , it is making steeper and steeper uptrend lines on both the daily and weekly, I'm looking for a hellava pullback in oil, time to buy DUG (ultrashort oil & gas proshares), but timing is critical at this point - even if you are off a day or two you could get badly burnt .
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!


DUG looks to be forming that double bottom... so I would say it presents a low risk entry to the up side with a stop just below the bottom.
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

Linking to an article written in 2005 would be OK if there was some evidence its content held true. Do you have some?
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

ShareIt said:
Absolute genius... there is always one in a life time

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Rb_rDkwGnU&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tf4gOS8aoFk&NR=1
Click to expand...

Water is not a fuel source,... It is simply a vehicle.

You have to use electricity to get the hydrogen from the water so your still using an outside fuel source,...

It's almost like saying that your equipment runs on batteries so it doesn't need any out side energy source,.... except you go home and plug your battery into the coal fired grid.
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!


yeah i know... i was just making a point that he is a genius and this could be one of the many alternatives needed
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

ShareIt said:
yeah i know... i was just making a point that he is a genius and this could be one of the many alternatives needed
Click to expand...
He's a dead genius if he was ever one.
His brother in law took the technology to Xogen to produce cars that ran on water.
The company (8 years on) is trying to maker water from waste water - not trying to make that dream car anymore.
It's a quantum shift.
Looks like a load of hogwash from the outset.
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

Hopeful said:
OPEC controls the supply and are deliberately keeping it subdued
Click to expand...
In the same way that I control the gold supply and am deliberately keeping it subdued by reducing to zero production from my backyard mine. Something which misses the point that geology has already made that decision for me and no amount of drilling, digging or other activity will substantially alter it.

Peak oil has been known about and understood by geologists for more than half a century. Im my view a conspiracy is far more likely amongst those who kept selling SUV's and cars in general in the pursuit of profit rather than a bunch of retired geologists with nothing to gain.

The car companies could easily have kept fuel prices down if they had wanted to. Just don't ever mass market any vehicle that doesn't do at least 100km on 10 litres. Not hard at all, most consumers just buy what they're sold by the industry, but smaller cars = smaller profits.

Even in 2008 most car manufacturers still rate performance in terms of acceleration etc rather than efficiency - a point that will seem incredible in an historical context. Incredible that so many consumers fall for it despite wars for oil, climate change, soaring prices and so on.

Nothing "wrong" with that guzzler as such though. It's a free society and so on where we all make choices. But anyone complaining about the cost of petrol for private motoring (farmers etc have a valid point though) has a lot in common with the person who leaves school at age 16 and then complains that they're not earning at least $100K.

All of this is said in a friendly manner though. Kind of a sort of payback for all those "why'd you buy a 4 cylinder car" comments. Funny how nobody has asked me that in the past few months... :
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

Smurf1976 said:
.... All of this is said in a friendly manner though. Kind of a sort of payback for all those "why'd you buy a 4 cylinder car" comments. Funny how nobody has asked me that in the past few months... :
Click to expand...

Smurf, listen to moi.. listen to moi! Now, I've got ONE word to say to you...

G.O.G.G.O.M.O.B.I.L.E.



AJ
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

More of the same.....

"Oil surged to a record peak near $US127 [overnight] after OPEC producer Iran said it was studying a plan to cut output despite signs record-high prices are hurting consumer nations."

http://business.theage.com.au/oil-hits-record-after-iran-threat/20080514-2dyb.html

How service stations in Wodonga, VIC, have been holding ULP under $1.45 for the past week and a half while oil has spiralled up into the stratosphere is beyond me....I seem to remember way back when oil was at a mere $95 barrel or so, ULP here had climbed at one point to $1.47 litre!!

Is there a "ULP Price vs Oil Price Dartboard Game" that someone in a higher place is playing?


AJ
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!


Exactly, it can be shown by the fact that General motors stopped manufacturing electric vechicles as soon as the californian mandate that forced them to do it was dropped,....

Once the clean Air mandate was dropped they stopped production on the electric vehicles and Bought the rights to manufacture Hummers.
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!


Lets hope and pray that the Aussie $$$ doesn't weaken to the US$$$...

It's the only thing that has been insulating us over the past 5 years,...

Imagine what the fuel price would be if we went back to 2002 when it was nearly A$1.00 for US$0.50 a barrel of oil would be costing $240 Australian dollars,...

The fuel tax system also should be changed,... It should be a set figure per litre sold,... say 30c per litre,.... not a 30% per litre tax,..... it's just making it worse.
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

why do you keep posting charts up acouch... anyways, what ever makes you happy!

Wanted to point out that oil has failed this whole week to make a new closing high and has tried on several occassions... with caution, this top is looking set in place...
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!


What about the Saudis overnight snubbing GWB's plea for more oil production? Might set another takeoff point?

AJ
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

Lucky it's not three strikes and you are out!
Presently the oil market is being well bought into on price weakness, as evidenced by a dip into the low $120s during the week that was very, very shortlived.
It shows that oil's "bullishness" is not yet exhausted in the short term, although a correction is warranted.
 

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Re: OIL AGAIN!

Or a classic megaphone top/whipsaw?
 

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