Oil price discussion and analysis

[>Apocalypto<]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

OiL bugs today marks a very interesting situation in Crude this is the frist sign of real weakness i have seen.

see the chart first time the new push down has penetrated the previous resistance area if it closes inside this area the trend is no longer and is starting to creep a sign the trend is slowing down.

I am watching crude interesting times coming in it!


Good trading

 

[CanOz]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Interesting TI, i've been watching bean oil, and i thought it might retest the last break point, could be some correlation here?

Cheers,

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Time to resurrect this old thread!

Oil up over $US83 barrel today. So, what price ULP to reach now in OZ? (it's currently around $1.34 ltr in Wodonga). A few months back when oil was *only* about $US80 we were paying over $1.45/ltr - before the price enquiry began. Might see $1.40+ again soon?

AJ

Refined petrol is a market in itself. Contrary to popular belief, it's not simply the crude oil cost plus x. Crude's gone up - petrol could go either up or down given it's only a small change.

Obviously if the crude price doubles then petrol will rise since otherwise production would be unprofitable. But then this did happen once before where it was profitable to buy petrol, diesel, fuel oil etc and blend them together and sell the product as crude oil. In a similar way it was once more profitable to set fire to the stuff than pay the cost of transporting it from the refinery to service stations.

Lots of funny economics in the oil business.

 

[Aussiejeff]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

UAE forced to slash oil output by a quarter
by Dylan Bowman on Sunday, 23 September 2007
(Getty Images)Scheduled maintenance at three of the UAE's largest oilfields will cut oil output by 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) in November, the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) said in a statement on Sunday.

Adnoc's statement confirmed work widely expected by the industry and reported by Reuters in August. At its peak, the maintenance would cut 810,000 bpd of output from the world's sixth-largest oil exporter, oil traders said last month.

The output reduction as detailed by Adnoc was about a quarter of the UAE's output. The Opec member produced about 2.56 million bpd in August, according to a Reuters survey.

This news confirming a looming significant drop in World Oil Production won't help the oil price to drop significantly any time soon.... especially with the odd hurricane hanging around and pipelines in Iraq being blown up regularly.

I wonder how many more Middle East oil fields are going to need maintenance over and above that guessed by the pundits, to keep flowing their sludge?

AJ

 

[Trader Paul]

Re: OIL AGAIN!



Warning: Astrostuff ahead .....

Hi folks,

Crude price will likely see some hefty rises soon, particularly
between 24102007 and 09112007, where some expansive
time cycles (Jupiter/Neptune) come into play.

In particular, we'll be alert around 30102007, when a hike
in oil prices may also be accompanied by some negative
news in currency markets, as well (???)

Longer term outlook ... if you think oil prices are high now,
just wait until May and December 2009 ... !~!

have a great day

paul

P.S. ..... be sure to be watching AZZ and ARQ, around the
end of this month (Oct 2007), as Neptune goes
direct on 31102007.... as, it has PROVEN to be a
trigger for BOTH of these stocks in the past !~!


=====

 

[Wysiwyg]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

OPEC said they will be boosting output by 500,000 barrels per day starting Nov. 1 .I`ll bet that prices fall on rising inventories and lower demand.

 

[reece55]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Anyone trading Oil, wow it's a volatile night tonight..... All the way up to almost $88 for US light crude, now at about $86.50... looks like a break of that heavy trendline that has been in place for some time........ I have been shorting it at various times throughout the night..... Perhaps it's a case of so much bullish fever in relation to oil that when positive news comes out, we have a reaction that is the opposite of what would make economic sense.

Cheers

 

[wayneL]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Oil closes at $89.60ish and is moving up in the after hours. I wouldn't mind betting we take out the big number before it opens again.

$90 Oil!

 

[rederob]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Wayne
I ran.
I should have talked Turkey last year, instead!

Magdoran
I think $90 is possible, but only if accompanied by geopolitical concerns that spill onto the world stage - Iran is the culprit to watch.
And then I thought about hurricanes: Put the two together and we have $100 as possible.
Otherwise I think POO over $85 this year will be a bit of a tall order.
I say this based on pragmatism, and not on natural demand, which I expect to be typically robust in the second half.

 

[rederob]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Just another $9.97 and the and the menace a trois digits est ici.

 

[Smurf1976]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Hmm...

Lots of new supply was going to come online if oil ever hit $40. So no need to worry.

And it was sure to happen at $50.

And it was guraranteed at $60.

And of course nothing would stop it at $70.

And $80? Well of course it that ever happened we'd promptly be flooded by the stuff and we'd switch to alternatives anyway.

Been hearing this for years now. Plenty of oil, lots of alternatives blah blah...

Bottom line: Production essentially flat for the past 2 years, rising demand, soaring prices and now declining inventories too.

PEAK OIL seems to be either very near or perhaps even in the past.

 

[kgee]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Find a cheaper alternative to oil??
Although it's not touted so much here (Australia)Bush would love to go into Iran and he's pushing for it .
Oil ;if its not the driving force behind the worlds econonomies it at least is one of the major factors that lies behind our economy today.
I'm a firm believer that it has at least 50 years to run b4 "crunch" an if I had any money to put in the bottom draw it would be oil.
Good news both Pluto and Gorgon gasfields have being given the go ahead in WA and I wouldn't be surprised if a few more gems are found out there
To put the value of Gorgon into perspective $60 million has been allocated to the protection of greenback turtles- thats more than the market cap of my fav stock at the moment?!??!
Oil is massive if I had fears: it is that Bush is looking at Iran I don't know how that is going to pan out...but my thoughtss are that Russia and China just won't allow that to happen...mind you Israel has said it won't allow Iran to have nucleur facillities not a nice "catalyst"

 

[Wysiwyg]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

OPEC said they will be boosting output by 500,000 barrels per day starting Nov. 1 .I`ll bet that prices fall on rising inventories and lower demand.

Well I have to admit being wrong about the crude oil price falling. Record prices being smashed again.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

With the ever increasing reliance of present societies on the rotting organic matter deep below the earth it goes without saying that finite is the inevitable agreement.If it weren`t for my own share market participation i would not have an understanding of why fuel prices are so high.At first the discussion about peak oil seemed to me one of those `oh yeah, right` arguments over reacting to cyclical supply issues.After seeing crude prices nearing $100 and listening more intently to those apparently in the know, it is hard to ignore the theory as reason behind supply/demand issues.

Driving cars, using electricity and overall the industrial age has created a deep seated reliance on and expectation of fuel energy for people to exist.As long as people see cars and aeoroplanes burning fuel for pleasure they surely will think that there `aint a problem.In fact it sends the message that fuel abuse is o.k., jump in the car and drive to the corner store.The truth is human beings are selfish and egotistical.Admit it, the majority want government or some other person/s to `take care of it` .

Looking from an alternate perspective this present situation is just part of the evolution of human and whatever will be will be.Live your life to the fullest.

That`s my cuppla and not even worth that.

 

[Col Lector]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Coal to liquids (CTL) ...ie, prodn of synthetic diesel from insitu-coal, is a response to higher oil prices that seems likely to be more widely pursued/adopted...it seems maybe even by some of the most unlikely big energy consumers......


Quote:

US air force eyes alternative fuel
SMH October 27, 2007 - 5:49PM

The world's most powerful air force is seeking to wean itself from foreign oil and nearly wipe out its carbon dioxide output as part of a sweeping alternative energy drive, a senior Pentagon official said.

By early 2011, the US air force aims to make sure its entire fleet of bombers, fighters, transports and other aircraft can use a domestically produced 50-50 blend of synthetic and petroleum-based fuel.

William Anderson, an assistant air force secretary, said the goal was to reduce energy demand, look for cleaner power sources and to reuse captured carbon commercially, for instance to enhance the growth of biofuels or improve oil well production.

"We can get ourselves very close to a zero carbon footprint," said Anderson ahead of talks on the issue with counterparts in Britain and France next month.

"Not today. Not tomorrow. But maybe a decade or so down the road," he told a briefing at the State Department's Foreign Press Centre.

Anderson said the air force's economic clout as a purchaser could help promote sources of power that do not add to emissions of greenhouse gases. Such gases trap heat in the atmosphere.

The largest US solar-electric power array of 14.2 megawatts is to open in December at Nellis Air force Base in Las Vegas, and Anderson said Congress had asked the service to consider if its bases are appropriate sites for small nuclear facilities.

Anderson said the effort on synthetic jet fuel had been spurred by the 2006 challenge to the nation from President George W Bush to wean itself from its "addiction" to imported oil. Oil supplies are diminishing, Anderson said.

On Monday, a C-17 Globemaster cargo aircraft, workhorse of the US-led wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the military's biggest user of jet fuel, flew for the first time with a coal-derived synthetic blend as the only fuel on board.

Anderson said jet fuel from coal produced 1.8 times more carbon dioxide between production and consumption as jet fuel from oil, but he said most of that additional amount could be captured during production of the synthetic fuel.

Coal was abundant in United States and renewable energy sources could not meet growing energy demands. "Coal is going to play big in the future, we believe, based on all projections," said Anderson, assistant secretary for installations, environment and logistics.

US air force global operations require a huge amount of energy. In fiscal 2006, the service consumed almost 2.6 billion gallons of aviation fuel at a cost of more than $US5.7 billion ($A6.3 billion), according to an air force fact sheet.

Jet fuel accounts for 81 per cent of the air force's total $US7 billion ($A7.7 billion) a year in energy spending, said Anderson.

For every $US10 ($A11) jump in the price of a barrel of oil, air force costs rise $US610 million ($A673 million), a sum that eats into modernisation efforts and other programs if not offset by additional funds from Congress, he said.

In France and in Britain, Anderson said he would reach out to industry as well as to sister air forces in the hope of speeding up energy-saving efforts worldwide.

"We believe that we have to find an environmentally friendly way to mine coal and to burn coal," he said. "We believe the technology is very close, and we believe that an organisation with the market size and presence of the United States air force can help move technology forward to make coal a much cleaner and greener alternative across the board."

© 2007 Reuters

 

[rederob]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

Brazil hit paydirt with a giant oil find last week: 8 billion possible barrels of recoverable oil/gas.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22729385-5005200,00.html
Put into context, if we threw a switch and drew all oil from this field today until it ran out, we would be switching back next February: At 31billion barrels global consumption per year, the biggest oil find in many years is just a small blip on the "supply" side response.

 

[ithatheekret]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

I wince everytime I pull up to a pump and I traded the ute in an Astra Hatch , that at the time of deciding to do so would have cost me $40 to fill , that has risen by an average $15-$18 . Has it phased me ? No , just makes me uncomfortable at paying the high taxes attached per litre . Which the administration refuses to part with , no matter how hard a squeeze it is placing on economic conditions . There's your surplus !

But ..... looking at the oil price in a retroactive historical context in relation to our own situation here at home , pondering the thought that we are a small nation occupying a very large space , jammed packed with lots of goodies the globe needs right now . Escalate that into a situation where the rest of the globe starts to squabble about right of supply . ponder it enough and you could have nightmares .

The thought of Iran being a target alone must be preciptated by the fact that in doing so it would also cut off another source the globe relies on , even if some of the global community may see them as a hinderance in the way of progress . Or was that democracy ?

I saw the reports of that first appointed puppet installed , visiting an Iraqi police station and personally handing out a summary execution without a hearing , seven times in a row !
If that's Iraqi democracy you can keep it , because that will inflate anger within the region along with other act suchs as ....... not a good look when reflecting on Iraqi oil , which is still yet to make a contribution to the globes supply to meet demand .

Ergo , we should be happy , ney , estatic , that everyone wants to buy our commodities , instead of just taking them whilst the globes big stick is preoccupied .

Everyone is talking about $100 oil ........ I 'm more worried about $160 oil , but I will still drive that Astra 31kms to the shops in Gawler and 31kms back to take the missus shopping , paying the higher fuel cost , to avoid inflated convenience prices locally . We will still maintain our drive to Gawler Station to commute to Adelaide , which is 71kms away form home on a work day . We are always looking at reduction methods , but have 4 children and in our world they come first and last , so the grind continues , no matter the oil cost per barrel .

It's just when the oil price stops me from doing my parental and marital duties , that I will finally spit the dummy , because any force that interfers with my families future will need decisive action by a government . That will and can only come by two means , a drop on petrol excise or a rise in wages to meet the expectations I must adapt to or be allowed be allowed to take some form of control over other than an election . The key element though is adaption . My faith lies not in governments to find a solution , but the oil companies , who will sell it to us , in doing so they will see organic growth .
At present I only have to adapt to a rising pump price , that I'm sure is the catayst for the 23% rise in the grocery bills , noting the weight reductions in packaged products , which is basically a way the company passes on its inflated costs to the consumers .

That now leaves the other two previous matters firmly in the governments hands , be it either Blonk A or Blonk B that gets voted in , neither have yet mentioned anything in regards to an excise cut . And I know , that oil will surpass $100 a barrel , especially when I take into account , the price has been kept artificially low for decades , and calculations of it's fundamentals have it pointing to just over $116 a barrel already .

 

[Knobby22]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

I wince everytime I pull up to a pump and I traded the ute in an Astra Hatch ,

It's just when the oil price stops me from doing my parental and marital duties , that I will finally spit the dummy , because any force that interfers with my families future will need decisive action by a government . That will and can only come by two means , a drop on petrol excise or a rise in wages to meet the expectations I must adapt to or be allowed be allowed to take some form of control over other than an election . The key element though is adaption . My faith lies not in governments to find a solution , but the oil companies , who will sell it to us , in doing so they will see organic growth .
At present I only have to adapt to a rising pump price , that I'm sure is the catayst for the 23% rise in the grocery bills , noting the weight reductions in packaged products , which is basically a way the company passes on its inflated costs to the consumers .

.

People need to change their behaviour.

We already have low oil taxes compared to most other countries and it is a fair thing that road users be taxed as per a user pays basis. There is also the balance of payment problems exacerbated by the amount of oil imported. The more inefficient the car, the more tax paid. Seems fair to me!

 

[Junior]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

If you're concerned about the rising oil price make sure you own some WPL or have some exposure to oil stocks...share price gains will help pay for your tank of fuel.

 

[CanOz]

Re: OIL AGAIN!

If you're concerned about the rising oil price make sure you own some WPL or have some exposure to oil stocks...share price gains will help pay for your tank of fuel.

Great idea, its called hedging. What does everyone think the airlines do in times of high fuel cost??? They go long oil futures...

The same can be done for home owners worried about rising interest rates...go long IR futures!

The above is not advice, but merely ideas...can anyone actually relate to personal types of hedging? I know one member here that is short on SPI futs, hedging their portfolio of ASX stocks.

Cheers,