- Joined
- 23 November 2004
- Posts
- 3,974
- Reactions
- 850
Re: OIL AGAIN!
What we need is for the Americans to have to buy their petrol in Turkey!
What we need is for the Americans to have to buy their petrol in Turkey!
Oil price discussion and analysis
- Thread starter wayneL
- Start date
theasxgorilla
Problem solved... next bubble.
- Joined
- 7 December 2006
- Posts
- 2,343
- Reactions
- 1
Re: OIL AGAIN!
Hey BigBWACULL,
Thats a terrific graphic...hadn't seen that one before.
It's also disgusting when you look at it...and who started the war in Iraq??? I don't hate America per se but there are some blatent things they could fix to be much less of a burden on the rest of the world.
Hey BigBWACULL,
Thats a terrific graphic...hadn't seen that one before.
It's also disgusting when you look at it...and who started the war in Iraq??? I don't hate America per se but there are some blatent things they could fix to be much less of a burden on the rest of the world.
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
- Joined
- 11 July 2006
- Posts
- 11,543
- Reactions
- 519
Re: OIL AGAIN!
Whats even more amazing to me is Canada's usage....if you think that Canada and Australia are very similar demographically. The big difference though, is the size of the North American cars/pickup trucks that the Canadians drive too.
Cheers,
Whats even more amazing to me is Canada's usage....if you think that Canada and Australia are very similar demographically. The big difference though, is the size of the North American cars/pickup trucks that the Canadians drive too.
Cheers,
theasxgorilla
Problem solved... next bubble.
- Joined
- 7 December 2006
- Posts
- 2,343
- Reactions
- 1
Re: OIL AGAIN!
CanAus...I didn't see that...can you tell I just woke up over here??
Thats remarkable...I mean, I love a good V8 as much as anybody, but if we think global warming has addressable causes surely this one has to be priority, or?
CanAus...I didn't see that...can you tell I just woke up over here??
Thats remarkable...I mean, I love a good V8 as much as anybody, but if we think global warming has addressable causes surely this one has to be priority, or?
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
- Joined
- 11 July 2006
- Posts
- 11,543
- Reactions
- 519
Re: OIL AGAIN!
Its the whole big pickup SUV thing i think. I had a Senator when i lived in Australia with the LS2 in it and it was great on fuel...until you put the boot into it.
But put one of those in a big Cadillac SUV with all the mod cons or drive a big hummer and your using some serious petrol.
The tax component is lower in Canada than Australia too i think...
Good on ya for just getting outa bed...i bets its a great place to wake up to.
Cheers,
Its the whole big pickup SUV thing i think. I had a Senator when i lived in Australia with the LS2 in it and it was great on fuel...until you put the boot into it.
But put one of those in a big Cadillac SUV with all the mod cons or drive a big hummer and your using some serious petrol.
The tax component is lower in Canada than Australia too i think...
Good on ya for just getting outa bed...i bets its a great place to wake up to.
Cheers,
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
- Joined
- 11 July 2006
- Posts
- 11,543
- Reactions
- 519
- Joined
- 13 April 2007
- Posts
- 801
- Reactions
- 0
Re: OIL AGAIN!
My oil/gas portfolio has been showing some stellar returns this week, despite a fall in crude (EGO, CVI, CVN, EMR).
Does anyone know whether this has been the case for most oil/gas stocks, and if so offer reasons, because I'm stumped
Thanks
My oil/gas portfolio has been showing some stellar returns this week, despite a fall in crude (EGO, CVI, CVN, EMR).
Does anyone know whether this has been the case for most oil/gas stocks, and if so offer reasons, because I'm stumped
Thanks
- Joined
- 3 March 2007
- Posts
- 274
- Reactions
- 2
Re: OIL AGAIN!
In its simplist form id say that OIL represents a 'safer' sector than most.
Every day we have less oil, every day demand gets stronger and the oil left in the ground becomes harder and more expensive to extract.
As the US dollar decreases in value the oil price must increase in value because payment is in US dollars, if it didnt sellers would be getting paid less per barrel of oil as the US dollar weakened.
The world loves OIL, almost everything requires oil, either to produce or transport.
Just wait until one day, out of the blue OPEC announces that they can no longer increase output to help meet demand because ' there oil wells are in decline'. Essentially they are running out of the stuff!!!
Now, just hope you are holding oil shares on that day................
Go oil!!!
JW
In its simplist form id say that OIL represents a 'safer' sector than most.
Every day we have less oil, every day demand gets stronger and the oil left in the ground becomes harder and more expensive to extract.
As the US dollar decreases in value the oil price must increase in value because payment is in US dollars, if it didnt sellers would be getting paid less per barrel of oil as the US dollar weakened.
The world loves OIL, almost everything requires oil, either to produce or transport.
Just wait until one day, out of the blue OPEC announces that they can no longer increase output to help meet demand because ' there oil wells are in decline'. Essentially they are running out of the stuff!!!
Now, just hope you are holding oil shares on that day................
Go oil!!!
JW
Wysiwyg
Everyone wants money
- Joined
- 8 August 2006
- Posts
- 8,428
- Reactions
- 284
Re: OIL AGAIN!
I see you already hold CVI pommiegranite???
Anyway here is a chart showing clearly the drop off in the price of crude.If I was a commodities trader then I would be watching closely for an entry but then again the rrrrrs is falling out of everything so it `ll prolly tank further.Hoo nose.
My oil/gas portfolio has been showing some stellar returns this week, despite a fall in crude (EGO, CVI, CVN, EMR).
Does anyone know whether this has been the case for most oil/gas stocks, and if so offer reasons, because I'm stumped
Thanks
I see you already hold CVI pommiegranite???
Anyway here is a chart showing clearly the drop off in the price of crude.If I was a commodities trader then I would be watching closely for an entry but then again the rrrrrs is falling out of everything so it `ll prolly tank further.Hoo nose.
Attachments
- Joined
- 3 March 2007
- Posts
- 274
- Reactions
- 2
Re: OIL AGAIN!
Guess the key is that there will always be fluctuations to price, more so in times of economic uncertainty and with folks being unsettled as they are at present.
I still think that you have an over riding factor being that demand is increasing and supply is decreasing. America might go into recession?? but oil will still be getting gobbled up at alarming rates!
All the cheap easy to extract oil has nearly been used and we are not making new discoveries quickly enough to replenish proven and probable existing reserves. Basically we are in drawn down. Further, with the new discoveries they are making the oil costs more to extract and the discoveries are much, much smaller.
So, if your long on oil, its pretty much a given that the price will increase. Whats not a given is that the company you have invested in will be able to find future viable reserves.
Also, if the US dollar craps itself, which the Chinese may just play a part, the price of oil per barrel will increase proportianately.
I'd say oil above $60.00 a barrel is a safe bet for a long, long time yet.
Its a non renewalable resource, well, not renewalable in our lifetime anyway.....................
By about 2030 you'll know all about oil, it will be the single most talked about issue in the world and its not that long until we exhaust our supplies.
Guess the key is that there will always be fluctuations to price, more so in times of economic uncertainty and with folks being unsettled as they are at present.
I still think that you have an over riding factor being that demand is increasing and supply is decreasing. America might go into recession?? but oil will still be getting gobbled up at alarming rates!
All the cheap easy to extract oil has nearly been used and we are not making new discoveries quickly enough to replenish proven and probable existing reserves. Basically we are in drawn down. Further, with the new discoveries they are making the oil costs more to extract and the discoveries are much, much smaller.
So, if your long on oil, its pretty much a given that the price will increase. Whats not a given is that the company you have invested in will be able to find future viable reserves.
Also, if the US dollar craps itself, which the Chinese may just play a part, the price of oil per barrel will increase proportianately.
I'd say oil above $60.00 a barrel is a safe bet for a long, long time yet.
Its a non renewalable resource, well, not renewalable in our lifetime anyway.....................
By about 2030 you'll know all about oil, it will be the single most talked about issue in the world and its not that long until we exhaust our supplies.
- Joined
- 14 February 2005
- Posts
- 15,187
- Reactions
- 17,185
Re: OIL AGAIN!
I'm expecting it a bit earlier than that myself since I really don't see how demand is going to be met even in 5 years time if it keeps growing as it has been. For that matter, even six months from now is really only doable with stock drawdown which is unlikely to be able to be replaced in time for the following season.
explod
explod
- Joined
- 4 March 2007
- Posts
- 7,341
- Reactions
- 1,197
Re: OIL AGAIN!
If we look at the changes to the world over the last 100 years (the phone for example) you will find that the changes in the last 20 (the internet/computers in mobile phones) then in 30 years, if we have survived the pollution, oil will have been long forgotten
If we look at the changes to the world over the last 100 years (the phone for example) you will find that the changes in the last 20 (the internet/computers in mobile phones) then in 30 years, if we have survived the pollution, oil will have been long forgotten
Sean K
Moderator
- Joined
- 21 April 2006
- Posts
- 22,135
- Reactions
- 11,254
Re: OIL AGAIN!
Oil headed for $100 a barrel: Chavez
August 12, 2007 - 7:29AM
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez predicted that oil prices will hit $US100 a barrel, saying the world is facing an energy crisis.
"The price of oil is headed for $US100," Chavez told Caribbean leaders at an energy summit. "OPEC says so ... We should prepare ourselves for those prices."
He added that "the world is entering into an energy crisis" largely caused by a US-influenced "consumerist model and the limitless waste".
Venezuela, a member of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, still counts the United States as its top buyer although Chavez has sought to diversify his clientele by selling more to Latin America, the Caribbean and as far away as China.....
Oil headed for $100 a barrel: Chavez
August 12, 2007 - 7:29AM
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez predicted that oil prices will hit $US100 a barrel, saying the world is facing an energy crisis.
"The price of oil is headed for $US100," Chavez told Caribbean leaders at an energy summit. "OPEC says so ... We should prepare ourselves for those prices."
He added that "the world is entering into an energy crisis" largely caused by a US-influenced "consumerist model and the limitless waste".
Venezuela, a member of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, still counts the United States as its top buyer although Chavez has sought to diversify his clientele by selling more to Latin America, the Caribbean and as far away as China.....
- Joined
- 13 April 2007
- Posts
- 801
- Reactions
- 0
Re: OIL AGAIN!
As we all know, there has been a sharp increase over the past 5 years in the price of crude. I'm wondering whether this has more to do with demand from the booming global economy and not from a lack finding new reserves.
If this is the case, by OPEC controlling the flow of oil, would it be fair to say that prices are being kept artificially low to keep their market from moving to other energy sources?
Surely, one day OPEC will have to open up and say "things are really bad...we've almost run out"
If this is the case, then isn't there a huge spike waiting to happen? When this will happen is anyone guess. It could be 2 years or it could be 20 years.
As we all know, there has been a sharp increase over the past 5 years in the price of crude. I'm wondering whether this has more to do with demand from the booming global economy and not from a lack finding new reserves.
If this is the case, by OPEC controlling the flow of oil, would it be fair to say that prices are being kept artificially low to keep their market from moving to other energy sources?
Surely, one day OPEC will have to open up and say "things are really bad...we've almost run out"
If this is the case, then isn't there a huge spike waiting to happen? When this will happen is anyone guess. It could be 2 years or it could be 20 years.
- Joined
- 14 February 2005
- Posts
- 15,187
- Reactions
- 17,185
Re: OIL AGAIN!
But go to any car dealership in Australia and you will still find new petrol fuelled vehicles for sale. Now, if we've hit peak oil in 2005 as is starting to seem plausible then we really need to be not building petrol engines any more. We'll have trouble enough fuelling the ones we already have plus rising aviation, shipping and petrochemical demand without building more petrol engines.
So, I'll have confidence in the "technology will solve the problem" when I see Holden announce the end of production of petrol fuelled Commodores, Ford announcing no more petrol or LPG Falcons and Toyota saying no more petrol or diesel in anything. And not just that, but to see the exact same thing happen in the rest of the world too, developing countries included.
Look at the crashing production at Cantarell, North Sea etc and you'll see why I'm saying that if we keep building any significant number of petrol / diesel cars past the peak of oil production then we're in serious trouble. We'll need most of the oil to run vehicles already built plus ongoing use for aviation, trains, ships, portable generators and so on.
Stand on any city street corner and pretty soon you'll see a car built back when lead was added to petrol and "internet" was a term few had heard. That's the problem - every engine built today requires fuel for the next 20 or so years.
Oil heaters haven't generally been sold in Australia since 1979 (probably a few on here have never seen one). There's still enough of them around here in Hobart to warrant two fuel suppliers and a few repair guys being in business. And that's despite the wood boom of the 1980's, HydroHeat direct in the 90's and more recently heat pumps. Even the Boags brewery only recently stopped using oil to run the boilers. Oil using equipment doesn't turn over at anywhere near the rate of computers.
Agreed about the increasing pace of change.
But go to any car dealership in Australia and you will still find new petrol fuelled vehicles for sale. Now, if we've hit peak oil in 2005 as is starting to seem plausible then we really need to be not building petrol engines any more. We'll have trouble enough fuelling the ones we already have plus rising aviation, shipping and petrochemical demand without building more petrol engines.
So, I'll have confidence in the "technology will solve the problem" when I see Holden announce the end of production of petrol fuelled Commodores, Ford announcing no more petrol or LPG Falcons and Toyota saying no more petrol or diesel in anything. And not just that, but to see the exact same thing happen in the rest of the world too, developing countries included.
Look at the crashing production at Cantarell, North Sea etc and you'll see why I'm saying that if we keep building any significant number of petrol / diesel cars past the peak of oil production then we're in serious trouble. We'll need most of the oil to run vehicles already built plus ongoing use for aviation, trains, ships, portable generators and so on.
Stand on any city street corner and pretty soon you'll see a car built back when lead was added to petrol and "internet" was a term few had heard. That's the problem - every engine built today requires fuel for the next 20 or so years.
Oil heaters haven't generally been sold in Australia since 1979 (probably a few on here have never seen one). There's still enough of them around here in Hobart to warrant two fuel suppliers and a few repair guys being in business. And that's despite the wood boom of the 1980's, HydroHeat direct in the 90's and more recently heat pumps. Even the Boags brewery only recently stopped using oil to run the boilers. Oil using equipment doesn't turn over at anywhere near the rate of computers.
- Joined
- 3 March 2007
- Posts
- 274
- Reactions
- 2
Re: OIL AGAIN!
Spot on Smurf, that essentially captures how i feel about the issue myself.
Just to add to those comments and reinforce the dire situation that we are in most people only think of fuel (petrol) and the various types of oils (heating, lubricants) and so forth.
Now while i'll happily agree that a huge amount of oil is used through this process what they forget about is this.........
Oil is required for, platics (try and think of a product that does not contain plastic, it might just be the bubble wrap around it or the bag you carry it home in), all petrochemical products (this list includes detergents, pesticides and zillions more), some waxes. Road surfaces are made from, bitumen, which is oil.
Avaiation fuel, pretty important if you intend to travel..................
Another biggie is that to produce FOOD we use **** loads of oil and unless we return to the horse and plough i dont see a way out of this one. Also, to pump the water to irrigate the crops, we need, you guessed it, oil.
May as well include medicines while we are at it, most are plant extracts or petrochemical by products.
Now, thats pretty gloomy stuff but, and i hear a few people saying what about nuclear reactors, solar and wind power.
Now thats a fair call, but, to produce solar cells and wind generators, you need oil baby. They are made of plastic and you need oil to make plastic, then you need oil to transport them.
At present, these alternate energy sources only contribute a tiny fraction of the worlds energy demand.
As for nuclear reactors, dont quote me on this but i thought i heard somewhere that if you changed every single power plant in the world into nuclear we could only run them for about 100 years before we mined and used up all the worlds Urainium.
And, i'd agree that $100 a barrel is not far away. That will be considered CHEAP in the not to distant future.
Its a grim future unless we get our act together and develop technologies and alternate energy sources.
Spot on Smurf, that essentially captures how i feel about the issue myself.
Just to add to those comments and reinforce the dire situation that we are in most people only think of fuel (petrol) and the various types of oils (heating, lubricants) and so forth.
Now while i'll happily agree that a huge amount of oil is used through this process what they forget about is this.........
Oil is required for, platics (try and think of a product that does not contain plastic, it might just be the bubble wrap around it or the bag you carry it home in), all petrochemical products (this list includes detergents, pesticides and zillions more), some waxes. Road surfaces are made from, bitumen, which is oil.
Avaiation fuel, pretty important if you intend to travel..................
Another biggie is that to produce FOOD we use **** loads of oil and unless we return to the horse and plough i dont see a way out of this one. Also, to pump the water to irrigate the crops, we need, you guessed it, oil.
May as well include medicines while we are at it, most are plant extracts or petrochemical by products.
Now, thats pretty gloomy stuff but, and i hear a few people saying what about nuclear reactors, solar and wind power.
Now thats a fair call, but, to produce solar cells and wind generators, you need oil baby. They are made of plastic and you need oil to make plastic, then you need oil to transport them.
At present, these alternate energy sources only contribute a tiny fraction of the worlds energy demand.
As for nuclear reactors, dont quote me on this but i thought i heard somewhere that if you changed every single power plant in the world into nuclear we could only run them for about 100 years before we mined and used up all the worlds Urainium.
And, i'd agree that $100 a barrel is not far away. That will be considered CHEAP in the not to distant future.
Its a grim future unless we get our act together and develop technologies and alternate energy sources.
- Joined
- 3 March 2007
- Posts
- 274
- Reactions
- 2
Re: OIL AGAIN!
Pommiegranite wrote: 'As we all know, there has been a sharp increase over the past 5 years in the price of crude. I'm wondering whether this has more to do with demand from the booming global economy and not from a lack finding new reserves.'
Pommie, the answer to this is BOTH.
Demand is increasing but existing reserves are also being depleted and exasperating this is that new discoveries while being considerably smaller are not being discovered as quickly as we are using the existing reserves.
This why we are in draw down now.
Compounding the problem is that we have found and almost used up all the easy to find and extract oil.
The remaining oil and future discoveries cost more per barrel to extract and are typically in more difficult areas or further under ground. Either way the outcome is that it is going to cost MUCH more in the future to produce a barrel of oil, considerably more.
Put the increased extraction cost with more demand and less supply and BINGO, its a no brainer, UP GOES THE PRICE!!!!!!!!!
JW - Go oil
Pommiegranite wrote: 'As we all know, there has been a sharp increase over the past 5 years in the price of crude. I'm wondering whether this has more to do with demand from the booming global economy and not from a lack finding new reserves.'
Pommie, the answer to this is BOTH.
Demand is increasing but existing reserves are also being depleted and exasperating this is that new discoveries while being considerably smaller are not being discovered as quickly as we are using the existing reserves.
This why we are in draw down now.
Compounding the problem is that we have found and almost used up all the easy to find and extract oil.
The remaining oil and future discoveries cost more per barrel to extract and are typically in more difficult areas or further under ground. Either way the outcome is that it is going to cost MUCH more in the future to produce a barrel of oil, considerably more.
Put the increased extraction cost with more demand and less supply and BINGO, its a no brainer, UP GOES THE PRICE!!!!!!!!!
JW - Go oil
- Joined
- 14 February 2005
- Posts
- 15,187
- Reactions
- 17,185
Re: OIL AGAIN!
The only real exceptions to this are firewood, dung etc used largely in developing countries and solar energy used directly for lighting (eg through windows). Virtually everything else is fossil, nuclear or hydro.
As for future supplies, hydro is sustainable under some circumstances (most of the Australian schemes are reasonably sustainable) but fossil fuel is a dead cert to run out eventually. For oil and gas that's frighteningly close. For coal it's a bit longer.
As for running out of uranium, that depends on the technology that is used. I would argue that there has been massively less exploration for uranium than for oil / gas so there ought to be quite a bit still to discover. How it is used then becomes the key - the present throw away nuclear fuel cycle isn't sustainable that's for sure. Trouble is, go to breeder reactors and then you've got a bigger problem with hazardous waste.
The vast majority of commercial energy worldwide is from oil, coal or natural gas. What is not from those sources is almost entirely nuclear and hydro.
The only real exceptions to this are firewood, dung etc used largely in developing countries and solar energy used directly for lighting (eg through windows). Virtually everything else is fossil, nuclear or hydro.
As for future supplies, hydro is sustainable under some circumstances (most of the Australian schemes are reasonably sustainable) but fossil fuel is a dead cert to run out eventually. For oil and gas that's frighteningly close. For coal it's a bit longer.
As for running out of uranium, that depends on the technology that is used. I would argue that there has been massively less exploration for uranium than for oil / gas so there ought to be quite a bit still to discover. How it is used then becomes the key - the present throw away nuclear fuel cycle isn't sustainable that's for sure. Trouble is, go to breeder reactors and then you've got a bigger problem with hazardous waste.
- Joined
- 13 February 2006
- Posts
- 5,067
- Reactions
- 11,486
Re: OIL AGAIN!
Just watched the documentary detailing the death of the "Electric Car".
Battery distance 200 miles
Top speed 150mph
Acceleration 0-60mph 3.6secs
Cost of charging from home $200/month
Time taken ....overnight
Cost .....undisclosed
General Motors, Ford, Toyota, all had models.
Road tested by consumers, all were really positive [600+]
All TRIED to purchase their cars, all were refused.
All cars were taken back and destroyed within 3 years
In a single stroke the following problems solved;
*no CO2 emissions
*no petrol required
*no engine/no engine parts required
*no services required
Immediately you can see why the Oil Industry & Automotive Industry hated it
The Politicians [American] basically caved in to the pressure.
Interesting film.
jog on
d998
Just watched the documentary detailing the death of the "Electric Car".
Battery distance 200 miles
Top speed 150mph
Acceleration 0-60mph 3.6secs
Cost of charging from home $200/month
Time taken ....overnight
Cost .....undisclosed
General Motors, Ford, Toyota, all had models.
Road tested by consumers, all were really positive [600+]
All TRIED to purchase their cars, all were refused.
All cars were taken back and destroyed within 3 years
In a single stroke the following problems solved;
*no CO2 emissions
*no petrol required
*no engine/no engine parts required
*no services required
Immediately you can see why the Oil Industry & Automotive Industry hated it
The Politicians [American] basically caved in to the pressure.
Interesting film.
jog on
d998
- Joined
- 10 July 2004
- Posts
- 2,913
- Reactions
- 3
Re: OIL AGAIN!
Time to resurrect this old thread!
Oil up over $US83 barrel today. So, what price ULP to reach now in OZ? (it's currently around $1.34 ltr in Wodonga). A few months back when oil was *only* about $US80 we were paying over $1.45/ltr - before the price enquiry began. Might see $1.40+ again soon?
AJ
Time to resurrect this old thread!
Oil up over $US83 barrel today. So, what price ULP to reach now in OZ? (it's currently around $1.34 ltr in Wodonga). A few months back when oil was *only* about $US80 we were paying over $1.45/ltr - before the price enquiry began. Might see $1.40+ again soon?
AJ
