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Oil price discussion and analysis

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Re: OIL AGAIN!

My view: OPEC decision in Dec meeting on whether to increase oil production will have a major impact on the oil price till the end of winter season.:)

Yesterday shorted Comex copper and shorted S&P 500, stated in my blog. Working to short oil at $100, and buy silver at $14.00.
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

BREND said:
My view: OPEC decision in Dec meeting on whether to increase oil production will have a major impact on the oil price till the end of winter season.:)

Yesterday shorted Comex copper and shorted S&P 500, stated in my blog. Working to short oil at $100, and buy silver at $14.00.
Click to expand...
BREND
OPEC's decision may have a very short impact.
The reality is that the Saudis may have some limited spare capacity. But in the last 2 years they have made no meaningful contribution to a supply side response.
So if their words are not matched with results in 2008, the jig's up and you need to look long.
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

rederob said:
BREND
OPEC's decision may have a very short impact.
The reality is that the Saudis may have some limited spare capacity. But in the last 2 years they have made no meaningful contribution to a supply side response.
So if their words are not matched with results in 2008, the jig's up and you need to look long.
Click to expand...

Understand, and totally agree with u.

By the way, I had done so backtesting on oil, and posted them in my blog, it might interest u with the results..
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

moneymajix said:
Oil shale may finally have its moment

Can oil shale work?
]
Click to expand...

I think the real question is can the planet afford the carbon emmisions relating to oil shale and oil sands,....

these technoligies can be devasting to the environment both locally and gloablly,

1, oil sands and oil shale mining turns oil production into a mining operation,.... massive open cut mines are used to get at the oil shale,...

2, Most of the current oil sands, oil shale and coal to oil production facilities burn about 6 times as much energy in natural gas than they produce in oil. so you still have all the emissions related to burn the oil as well as the burning of the natural gas to produce it.
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

Am tipping $100 oil tonight.
Enough's enough.
The line just has to be crossed soon!
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

Tysonboss1 said:
I think the real question is can the planet afford the carbon emmisions relating to oil shale and oil sands,....

these technoligies can be devasting to the environment both locally and gloablly,

1, oil sands and oil shale mining turns oil production into a mining operation,.... massive open cut mines are used to get at the oil shale,...

2, Most of the current oil sands, oil shale and coal to oil production facilities burn about 6 times as much energy in natural gas than they produce in oil. so you still have all the emissions related to burn the oil as well as the burning of the natural gas to produce it.
Click to expand...
Carbon emissions are a bigger one than most seem to realise.

If you looked only at resources in the ground then, for example, we'd be flat out (globally) building coal-fired power plants in order to close the gas-fired plants. Likewise we'd be converting industry to coal wherever possible too.

Trouble is, in a carbon constrained world we may find that most of our fossil fuel reserves may as well not be there. Coal, tar sands, shale etc. That's almost all of our fossil fuel resources. And all set to be effectively worthless. Indeed to some extent it already is - no many will invest in a major plant that could be outlawed in a decade or tow.

Oil and gas are a tiny fraction of the energy resources we have. And yet they represent the bulk of energy consumption. That, ultimately, is the problem. The good point with gas is that its development has lagged oil - but it ultimately is headed exactly the same way.
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

Crikey Rederob

I hope you have a "Bloody Good Allibi?"

As you have documented in recent days
You certainly have the motive


Salute and Gods' speed
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

Oil seems to be falling now given the spike we saw yesterday due to exploding pipelines.

Overnight February contracts tested the broke through the $90 mark but found good buying support there.

Gone long on a couple of contracts, I think the market is still very tight and given the buying support at these levels it may prove to be cheap in the coming month.

I feel at these prices much easier to go long than be short on a commodity with tight supply.

Will be interesting if OPEC can commit the additional oil they say they can, given the fact that earlier they were stating they could not provide additional oil.
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

dj_420 said:
Oil seems to be falling now given the spike we saw yesterday due to exploding pipelines.

Overnight February contracts tested the broke through the $90 mark but found good buying support there.

Gone long on a couple of contracts, I think the market is still very tight and given the buying support at these levels it may prove to be cheap in the coming month.

I feel at these prices much easier to go long than be short on a commodity with tight supply.

Will be interesting if OPEC can commit the additional oil they say they can, given the fact that earlier they were stating they could not provide additional oil.
Click to expand...
I think this is a case of "buying the rumour".
I hope oil drops another $10 as it will get excellent technical support around the $80 level.
Furthermore, I think the main players realise that despite the huffing and puffing of OPEC, oil has little downside left because demand is simply too strong.
China would ship in more oil if it could refine it - but it can't: It's relying more and more on refined product and as a result gas station queues are becoming a problem.
Oil has become a no brainer for longs: It's just a matter of riding this one down and hoping the bottom point will plateau long enough to get another strong push to $100 mark again.
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

Tysonboss1 said:
Care to set a date that you believe oil should have dropped to $79.99 by
Click to expand...

The us senate just wrapped up a deal to improve US vehicle efficency by 40pc by 2010 .....

In Europe vehicles average about 37 miles per gallon and are set to get 50 miles a gallon by 2012 .....

US has turned millions of acres of farmland into Ethanol growing ...


Last price was 88.37

In London, January Brent crude dropped $1.41 to $88.81 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

Oil prices have tumbled this week amid speculation that supplies are rising and a slowdown in U.S. growth will undercut energy demand.

"If the price drops below $90, the correction process will no doubt accelerate rapidly, making a level of $80 a barrel quite likely in the next few weeks," said Commerzbank analyst Eugen Weinberg in Frankfurt.
Click to expand...


http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/30/markets/oil.ap/index.htm?postversion=2007113015


Just armed with this info the natural assumption should be downward pressure on Oil prices.
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

numbercruncher said:
The us senate just wrapped up a deal to improve US vehicle efficency by 40pc by 2010 .....

In Europe vehicles average about 37 miles per gallon and are set to get 50 miles a gallon by 2012 .....

US has turned millions of acres of farmland into Ethanol growing ...
Click to expand...

Increasing vechicle efficiancy is good,... but the national car fleet has a very slow turnover the average life of a car is over 10 years,... so it takes years for any change in vehicle standards to become mainstream and have a large impact

even if you scrapped every car world wide and replaced it with a fuel sipping hybrid you would only extend the life of the oil reserves by 7 years due to the world wide economic growth,

if demand for energy is growing by 5% / year,... in 7 years it has increased by 50%,... so within the next 7 years we have a few options,

1, Increase oil production by 50%,..(probally not going to happen)

2, every piece of machinery that uses oil needs to be using 50% less oil (maybe,.. but not likely)

3, we need to bring alternatives to market that are equal to about 15billion barrels of crude oil energy / year.
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

Tysonboss1 said:
Increasing vechicle efficiancy is good,... but the national car fleet has a very slow turnover the average life of a car is over 10 years,... so it takes years for any change in vehicle standards to become mainstream and have a large impact

even if you scrapped every car world wide and replaced it with a fuel sipping hybrid you would only extend the life of the oil reserves by 7 years due to the world wide economic growth,

if demand for energy is growing by 5% / year,... in 7 years it has increased by 50%,... so within the next 7 years we have a few options,

1, Increase oil production by 50%,..(probally not going to happen)

2, every piece of machinery that uses oil needs to be using 50% less oil (maybe,.. but not likely)

3, we need to bring alternatives to market that are equal to about 15billion barrels of crude oil energy / year.
Click to expand...

Oddly enough, very few people understand the basis maths behind the impending energy crisis.
2008 will be great for oilers.
2009 fantastic.
2010 - could it get betterer!

It's also why I am bullish copper in medium term - best medium for electricity expansions and electric motors in particular.
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

I also have no doubt about the long term implications of peak oil, but was just showing some facts in response to the claim that oil under 80$ is impossible, which imho clearly isnt impossible,its only 10pc away from that.



But the most closely-watched issue was fuel efficiency. The new standards could alter the economics of driving: The cost of new cars would at first increase but over time be offset by savings at the pump.

"The cost of the technology is dwarfed by the oil savings," said Ann Mevnikoff, Washington representative for the Sierra Club. "I think the American people would rather put that money into technology rather than see it disappear in oil."

Mevnikoff said by 2020 the country could save 1.2 million barrels of oil a day, or about the same amount the country currently imports from the Middle East. Even factoring in the technology costs, she said the savings would amount to $26.5 billion a year.
Click to expand...

http://money.cnn.com/2007/12/01/news/economy/fuel_efficiencysat/index.htm

Gawd knows what the worlds Hungry are going to be eating once oil hits 200, and all the good farmland is planted out for fuel .... :eek:
 
Re: OIL AGAIN!

numbercruncher said:
I also have no doubt about the long term implications of peak oil, but was just showing some facts in response to the claim that oil under 80$ is impossible, which imho clearly isnt impossible,its only 10pc away from that.

:
Click to expand...

I wasn't saying oil under $80.00 was impossible,.... after all nothing is certain in the markets except the madness of man,....

Oil will drop closer to $80 due to the end of the USA driving season after all oil tends to take 3 steps forward one step back,

I just don't feel that it will drop below $80 and if it does it won't be far below and it won't be there for long.
 

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