Oil price discussion and analysis

[qldfrog]

Hello friends. I have questions about oil...

Recently I bought into the Betashares crude oil index ETF on the ASX.
I bought $10,000 @ $2.90 and
$5,000 @ $2.97
For an average price of around $2.93.

I know about the risks with contract expiry and prices.

I have a question however.
From my calculations the dividend of 5.978c in April means a yield on my average purchase price of 8.12%.
However I saw that this was slashed from over 40c the previous quarter.
Is this almost certain to fall further next quarter?

Also why doesn't the price on this ETF reflect the percentage increase in the WTI futures.
For example I bought in when WTI was around $12 and its now $34.
BUT I do know that the ETF is linked to the June July and August contracts.
Is the reason why prices don't move the same percentage wise have anything to do with the ETF costs, dividend payment and potential costs when moving from one month's contract to the next?
Still it is much lower than the WTI movement.

Any thoughts would be a tremendous help

Has anyone else purchased?

@pavilion103 , on that thread, look back toward end April, we have discussed OOO a lot then with plenty of valuable information

 

[pavilion103]

@pavilion103 , on that thread, look back toward end April, we have discussed OOO a lot then with plenty of valuable information

Which thread my friend? Is there a specific one for OOO?
How can I find it?
Thanks so much

 

[Joe Blow]

Which thread my friend? Is there a specific one for OOO?
How can I find it?
Thanks so much

Hi pav, welcome back!

You can find the OOO thread here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/t...il-index-etf-currency-hedged-synthetic.35340/

 

[rederob]

Which thread my friend? Is there a specific one for OOO?
How can I find it?
Thanks so much

It's also laid out clearly at their website:

The price of oil futures contracts is not the same as the “spot price” of oil. As such, OOO does not aim to, and should not be expected to, provide the same return as the performance of this spot price. The performance of an ETF that is linked to oil futures may be materially different to the performance of the spot price of oil itself. This is because the process of “rolling” from one futures contract to the next to maintain investment exposure can result in either a cost or benefit to the Fund, affecting returns.
​

Note also that OOO is, until further notice, exposed to the 3-month ahead contract rather than the next month as was previously the case.

 

[qldfrog]

Which thread my friend? Is there a specific one for OOO?
How can I find it?
Thanks so much

Hi @Pavilion, much of the talk was within this thread, looking at US similar ETF changing its rules, and the way OOO does NOT match oil price curve, in any way etc Especially the way it is NOT a tool for any even medium term holding.I learnt a lot

 

[pavilion103]

Thanks a lot guys

 

[debtfree]

Excuse my post everyone. Great to see you back @pavilion103.

 

[pavilion103]

Excuse my post everyone. Great to see you back @pavilion103.

Thank you
I have been absent with 5 years of chronic illness. Lyme Disease. Slowly recovering finally
Forced to move away from trading but using the same skills to invest in the markets

 

[pavilion103]

Hi @Pavilion, much of the talk was within this thread, looking at US similar ETF changing its rules, and the way OOO does NOT match oil price curve, in any way etc Especially the way it is NOT a tool for any even medium term holding.I learnt a lot

There are a lot of pages

With my chronic illness I struggle to read through lots of text on web pages.

If anyone did want to provide a summary of pointers/thoughts I'd welcome it.
However I don't expect it, as it seems it has ready been hammered and I know that people are busy!!

Thanks for letting me know where to look though

 

[qldfrog]

A good podcast about ooo
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/t...ussion-and-analysis.797/page-128#post-1070033

 

[pavilion103]

A good podcast about ooo
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/t...ussion-and-analysis.797/page-128#post-1070033

Thanks so much

 

[qldfrog]

Thanks so much

All credits to @InsvestoBoy for that gem, but please, if you can, follow the discussion around that time, a lot of knowledge.

 

[peter2]

Did I read this correctly? DTO a double short oil ETN that last traded >$50 is now zero?

 

[Smurf1976]

All credits to @InsvestoBoy for that gem, but please, if you can, follow the discussion around that time, a lot of knowledge.

I'll second that one - anyone considering buying OOO should read everything that's been said regarding it very, very carefully to understand exactly what they're investing in.

Depending on circumstances, this ETF may or may not effectively track movements in the price of crude oil.

Buying OOO is not buying crude oil or even a guarantee of tracking its price. Make sure to understand the detail of it.

 

[rederob]

Baker Hughes reported that the number of active U.S. rigs drilling for oil has now fallen for 10 weeks in a row, dropping by 21, to 318.
That is likely to keep the POO within the trading range below:

 

[pavilion103]

All credits to @InsvestoBoy for that gem, but please, if you can, follow the discussion around that time, a lot of knowledge.

I had a listen.
A lot more involved than I (or my financial adviser ) realised.

I’m interested to hear further updates in this thread now.

It’s been a month since that podcast. So much must have happened since then?

 

[pavilion103]

does anyone know what the storage situation is as of now?

 

[fiftyeight]

does anyone know what the storage situation is as of now?

Oil is always discussed on Macrovoices, just listen to the most recent podcast

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

does anyone know what the storage situation is as of now?

I go to oilprice.com for oil price news: https://oilprice.com/

Also, if you have the time you can monitor the oil tankers in oil refinery hubs like Singapore to see if they are building up:



https://www.myshiptracking.com/

 

[ducati916]

Boost for oil:

https://www.city-journal.org/covid-19-will-intensify-dominance-of-oil

jog on
duc