Oil price discussion and analysis

[InsvestoBoy]

Amazing coverage on the Oil subject, thank duc. You've pretty much looked at it from all angles as to how to play it.
I could only add one other way to play it, looking at the situation and that is using Oil tankers.
Um... none in Australia I could find, but there are Tanker stocks like Teekay Tankers Ltd (TNK) in the USA market that is getting a share price boost at the moment.

STNG, EURN, TNK, DHT, LPG, DSSI, INSW, FRO on the NYSE

OET and HUNT on the OSE.

I'm holding some EURN.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

XOP wasn't mentioned and has been doing better than XLE off the lows.

 

[ducati916]

XOP wasn't mentioned and has been doing better than XLE off the lows.

XOP:

This ETF offers exposure to the exploration and production sub-sector of the domestic energy market, making it a potentially useful tool for those looking to target stocks of companies responsible for discovering and accessing new deposits of oil and gas. XOP is likely too targeted for those with a long-term focus, but can be useful as a tactical overlay or as part of a sector rotation strategy. XOP is unique in that it seeks to replicate an equal-weighted benchmark. As such, the exposure offered by this fund is considerably more balanced than IEO, which includes many of the same stocks but assigns weighting based on market capitalization. It often costs more to pursue an equal-weighted strategy, but that isn't the case here; XOP is also very appealing from a cost perspective, making it the most attractive option for those seeking to bet on this corner of the U.S. energy market.





XOP has a different focus. Over a 5yr period both XOP & XLE are pretty close with regard to performance. I guess the argument is: how much of a jump in POO is required to drive further exploration over and above existing supply, given that there will be some excess supply to work off in the short term.

Also, a number of companies appear in both ETFs. XLE has a far heavier weight in XOM & CVX. This may appeal or repel.



Off the bottom, XOP is outperforming currently.

jog on
duc

 

[aus_trader]

My favourite mid-tier Oil/Gas producer is Beach Energy Ltd (BPT) on the asx, debt free to withstand these crippling times and has low cost of production with added benefit of gas credits.

Well, it's one thing liking and doing research on stocks but another thing to put your money down and buy it.

Decided to buy some shares of Beach Energy (BPT) today given that it's trading at nearly 50% lower in price to the January peak. As I mentioned earlier, this one is likely to come out OK in this Oil downturn, given it's financial strength and cheap production costs. Will detail the purchase amount in the Speculative Stock Portfolio later tonight when I get some time.

 

[derangedlawyer]

Anyone else got burned with OOO not replicating actual price swings?
I have written some of my findings here if anyone wants to contribute or get in touch OOO - Betashares Crude Oil Index ETF - Currency Hedged (Synthetic)

 

[ducati916]

XOM & CVX report earnings on Friday 1 May. With XLE carrying a high % of these 2, interesting to see how market will respond to the report. Current figures will be ignored (as we know they will be shocking). It will be the forward guidance that will be parsed.

jog on
duc

 

[wayneL]

XOM & CVX report earnings on Friday 1 May. With XLE carrying a high % of these 2, interesting to see how market will respond to the report. Current figures will be ignored (as we know they will be shocking). It will be the forward guidance that will be parsed.

jog on
duc

If absolutely diabolical they will rally hard. That's how it works these days isn't it?

 

[qldfrog]

If absolutely diabolical they will rally hard. That's how it works these days isn't it?

I got some XOM and they went up last night , expecting good news maybe?

 

[rederob]

WTI contracts relate to deliver to and storage at Cushing's hub, and below charts its present state of affairs at 24 April, plus each of the USA's storage districts (PADDs):

Clearly the USA has a lot of overall storage capacity, but Cushing does not.
Here's an article on its implications.

 

[aus_trader]

I got some XOM and they went up last night , expecting good news maybe?

I think today pretty much all Oil/Gas stocks rallied on the ASX as well.

Including, wait for it...
.
.
.

"OOO"

 

[rederob]

Current trading within the trend is looking good so far:

Looks like traders don't want to come close holding next-month WTI futures again, with USO being a former casualty and having to restructure its portfolio.

 

[Smurf1976]

It seems that the inevitable is happening with wells now being shut in in the US:

Oil production in the country tumbled sharply to 12.2 million bpd in the third week of April, a good 900,000 bpd less than the record peak of 13.1 million bpd recorded just a month prior.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Wave-Of-Shale-Well-Closures-Has-Finally-Begun.html

Given the lack of drilling of new wells and the reality that oil wells do deplete, there'll be zero chance of a prompt return to that 13.1 million bpd production rate anytime soon. It'll be some years after we see a return to much higher prices before there's any real chance of that sort of production being back on.

 

[qldfrog]

So next in line is what is happening to the massive debt of fracking oilers

 

[rederob]

Nice gap up at the start of this week's trading:


Baker Hughes rig count for 1 May saw a 7th week of declines for North America - 57 fewer were drilling for LTO.

 

[jbocker]

So next in line is what is happening to the massive debt of fracking oilers

Its going to be a big problem for the frackers unless they can afford to hold the debt long enough for a big price recovery and they would be praying that will be quick. Into the future it might only be done by the BIG oilers only.

 

[rederob]

WTI crude has bounced over 20% since last week's close:

 

[aus_trader]

Local ETF is up as well...


Beach Energy Ltd (BPT) is also up, which is in the Speculative Stock Portfolio.

 

[Kryzz]

Anyone else's CFD broker stopped the ability to trade west texas and only have brent crude available to place orders with??

 

[rederob]

Traders have taken a firm grip on oil prices:

A consistent uptrend within the lower band in the above chart suggests oil could be tracking where producers need it to go.
Demand has not returned,however, and supply cuts have barely taken effect. While current momentum is promising, I see POO struggling in the short term as it nears $30/bbl.
The other factor that will weigh in in months to come is the curtailment of production agreed by OPEC nations and others in order to lift prices. Given all nations are struggling with cashflows, those who have cut back will as quickly as possible try to recover their losses.

 

[ducati916]

News:



Oil prices shot up on Tuesday on signs of rebounding demand and supply shut ins. President Donald Trump was notably excited by the news, tweeting the demand was returning. But it may not only be demand that is driving oil prices higher. DNB analyst Helge Andre Martinsen highlighted that “We are currently seeing accelerating oil-production curtailments outside the OPEC+ countries,”. He went on to suggest that the supply side of global oil markets “is about to change quite quickly.”

Bakken output down 400,000 bpd. Roughly a third of North Dakota’s oil production has been shut in so far, down 400,000 bpd since March. The Bakken has some of the highest costs out of all U.S. shale, with an average breakeven price of about $46, according to Reuters and Deutsche Bank.

Lockdown easing boosts demand. Data is still scarce, but the loosening of stay-at-home orders across the world are thought to be boosting demand. Marco Dunand, the co-founder of oil trader Mercuria said that the oil market has “turned a corner,” according to the FT. “But if we have a second wave of pandemic then all bets are off,” he added.

jog on
duc