Oil/Gold Prices Will Go Up This Week!

[hardmoney]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

Well I have to say that I am also with Smurf and Hanrahan, I've known about peak oil for about three years.What is happening now to oil prices is no surprise to me at all, and yes I am fully invested in energy stocks.Folks, your current way of life is all but over and major changes are afoot.

Dont belive me ?, well like Smurf I have also given up on trying to show others the truth of the matter.The average punter just does'nt want to know.If its not on 60 minutes or the front page of the paper, then it just aint true.

 

[Epsilon]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

".Folks, your current way of life is all but over and major changes are afoot."
Can you give us a brief description as to how tomorrow's way of life is going to be?
Back to ...Stone Age, without petroleum?

 

[hardmoney]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

Epsilon - how bad will it get, well I have no idea.It all depends on the rate of depletion and just exactly when it occurs.You must realise that 'peak oil' is not a theory, it is cold hard scientific fact.The only point in dispute is when it will occur.Worst case estimates range from now through to the USGS prediction of about 30 years from now.Even a small depletion rate of one or two percent a year will cause a hefty drag on the global economy.And remember that these rates are compounding.Two percent a year, every year, for ever.If the global depletion rate is higher,say around ten percent such as the North Sea production suffered this year, then we are simply screwed, completely screwed.The economic drag would be horrific.

Like Matthew Simmons, investment banker and former energy adviser to President George W. Bush, says, The problem is that the world has no Plan B.When asked what is the soloution he replied "I don’t think there is one… The solution is to pray. Pray for mild weather and a mild winter. Pray for no hurricanes and to stop the erosion of natural gas supplies. Under the best of circumstances, if all prayers are answered there will be no crisis for maybe two years. After that it’s a certainty."

 

[Epsilon]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

H/M Thanks for that interestingly edifying brief analysis mate))
However.....Although I agree in most aspects with you, I am not as pessimistic as you.....
A). There are alternative sources of energy (Nuclear, solar, wind, waves, and of-cource Hydrogen)...
B) Scientists are franticly working on new methods, sources, i.e Hydrogen Fuel Cell is one of them.....
I happen to have more faith in us...Humans and our scientific, inventive, capabilities.....
Anyway, whichever way one analyses it...The depletion of the existing oil reserves is a very frightening scenario.....
Cheers!!!!

 

[Hanrahan]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

Epsilon, I could suggest going to peakoil.com but like others I am not after converts. Go there at your own risk, but your optimism may be shattered for alltime.

How bad COULD it be? Worst case estimates are of a 90% die-off. Can't happen? Read about Christmas Island.

Was it here or another thread I said that modern agriculture is simply a process of converting oil to food. End of cheap oil, end of cheap food.

 

[Milk Man]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

Ethanol can be substituted for petroleum and is completely sustainable. It emit half the nasties of petrol (still CO2 I think) and is easily manufactured. In Brazil they already use an 85% ethanol blend. Basically all that needs doing is to use something other than oil to make it burn so you can see it and its a great source of fuel. How those energy stocks look now?

 

[hardmoney]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

Well its nice to have faith, however faith wont save us, only action will, and there is precious little of it that I can see.Alternative energy, well there simply insn't one single alternative to oil.Oil is basically free energy,you stick a straw in the ground and it comes gushing out under pressure.Sure they also use water injection to help the pressure flow along, but the energy return is much greater than the energy input to pump it out.Being a liquid, its nice and easy to transport and to store away for a rainy day and it fuels everything from plains,trains and automobiles through to your winter heater.

The alternatives, well hydrogen is a non starter, its an enery carrier not an enery source.Ther is nowhere in the world that you can stick a pipe in the ground and have the hydrogen come flowing out.There is no mine you can dig the hydrogen up out of.You have tyo make it from something.Something like natural gas or water.That takes a lot of energy to do.More energy than you get back from the finished product.Hydrogen is the lightest element and so its a real bugger the store without leakage from its container long term.


You tell me, do you think that we are going to build the thousands of nuclear power plants needed to provide the electricity to make enough hydrogen to fuel all of our transport ? and do it all within the next say 10 to 15 years ?
Where are all of the vehicles going to come from ?, where is all of the infrastructure to make,transport, and store the hydrogen going to come from, Who is going to pay for it , how are they going to pay for it,where are they going to build all of this ?.Remember all of this has to happen before the peak in oil production, not ten years after.Were is the discussion about how all of this is going to be achieved ?

Simmons is right, the world has no 'Plan B'

 

[Epsilon]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

Han, thanks for the URL mate) I have bookmarked it and will go back for serious reading later....Thanks again)
Loakglen, from what I have read, the maximum safe ethanol/oil blend is no more than 30% ethanol. Above that level the engines appear to be adversely affected.....
As for Brazil....Whoa...Those cars must be the....happiest cars in the world, after consuming so much "intoxicating' ethanol!

 

[Epsilon]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

HardMoney......As it stands, now the technological advancements are obviously NOT AN ANSWER to the Energy depletion problems our planet is faced with.....
What i was saying, they (scientific centres all over the world) are franticly working and that (because of that) I have faith that they will come with something that may solve the energy problem....
The question is WHEN? How soon????
Hopefully before the last drop of oil!!!!!!

 

[GreatPig]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

So the end of cheap oil will also be the end of cheap food.

Cheap food is not so much the issue as enough food.

Mount Erebus in Nea Zealand

Mt Erebus is not in NZ. It's in Antarctica.

Ethanol can be substituted for petroleum

Not for all uses of petroleum. Fuel for vehicles is only one relatively minor use. So many other important parts of modern civilisation require products derived from petroleum.

GP

 

[Epsilon]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

Great Pig...what a ...Misnomer!!!!!
Far more appropriate a nom de plume would have been....."Great OWL".....
Anyway, I mixed Mount Erebus with the Air NEW Zealand disaster IN MOUNT EREBUS......
Although.....Climatologically there is not much difference between the South of N.Z and Antarctica.......
They are both as bleak and dark...as the Son (Erebus) of Chaos and Night that region between Earth and Hades, in ancient (classical) Greek mythology....
Thanks for spotting it.......OWL))))

 

[Hanrahan]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

Ethanol can be substituted for petroleum and is completely sustainable. It emit half the nasties of petrol (still CO2 I think) and is easily manufactured. In Brazil they already use an 85% ethanol blend. Basically all that needs doing is to use something other than oil to make it burn so you can see it and its a great source of fuel. How those energy stocks look now?

Most of what is said re alternatives is a triumph of wishful thinking over science.

Do some research and find out how many mill barrells/day of petrol/diesel we burn in Oz. Then find out how many acres of cane or sorgum we would need to plant to replace this. Then calculate how much diesel we would burn to produce that cane. Then add the acreage needed to produce that ethinol to your first figure. Do you see the problem?

This may help your calcs:http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8607389/

 

[mime]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

I think peak oil like global warming is exaggerated. I think we have enough oil reserves for at least 20 years. By then we will probably have a new type of energy sources and will be far less relient on oil.

 

[Yippyio]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

The benefit of high oil prices for the majority of people will be need to find an alternate energy source i.e. Hydrogen, Nuclear, Electric, Hydro, Wind and a combination.

The main reason we have this current problem is that whilst governments are making a furtune from massive fuel excise taxes they are not incentivised to encourage alternate fuel sources. Think of the loss in tax revenue if the government said hypothetically "ok there will be no more sales of combustion energy engines which rely 100% on petrol, everybody now has to switch to new hybrid electric cars" (Toyota Eunos, Honda)

We need governments to think long term about sustainable energy which is clean and cheap, it can happen now but the loss of revenue makes it a big call.

 

[Milk Man]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

Loakglen, from what I have read, the maximum safe ethanol/oil blend is no more than 30% ethanol. Above that level the engines appear to be adversely affected.....
As for Brazil....Whoa...Those cars must be the....happiest cars in the world, after consuming so much "intoxicating' ethanol!

I'm sure its 85% blend and haven't heard any reports that it damages engines. No doubt there are mods though; this is what I'm looking for. In the states there are drag cars that run on 100% ethanol and methanol is a very common race fuel (only one less carbon I think) but is derived from petroleum. Slightly more horsepower from methanol.

The best thing I like about ethanol is the available inrease in horsepower. Just let me loose in an alcohol powered monster on the street and i'll be happy.

 

[Milk Man]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

Most of what is said re alternatives is a triumph of wishful thinking over science.

Do some research and find out how many mill barrells/day of petrol/diesel we burn in Oz. Then find out how many acres of cane or sorgum we would need to plant to replace this. Then calculate how much diesel we would burn to produce that cane. Then add the acreage needed to produce that ethinol to your first figure. Do you see the problem?

This may help your calcs:http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/8607389/

Thanks for the info Han.

Ethanol can be used as a complete replacement for diesel IMO. I don't know what the numbers would look like though. New engines would be needed for tractors and trucks but given the amount of compression you can apply to ethanol the torque output should be sufficient to power a truck easily. That said, with new engines designed for ethanol the lifespan of a massive low revving high-torque engine shouldn't be much different.

 

[Hanrahan]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

Please excuse my English. I got 26/50 in the exam.

Hate to get personal but you probably failed in logic too.

Seriously, If you do not believe what we say, when we are quoting highly intelligent people, experienced in the industry, then quote opposing evidence and sources. I could flood this thread with "black" data but you wouldn't read it. If you are interested you will search on "King Hubberd", "Peak Oil" and "matt Simmons". If you are not leave the debate to the adults.

 

[Epsilon]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

Han...Please don't be so austerely harsh on Mime...He has not perpetrated a crime that deserves such a severe criticism......
It is (after all) his inalienable democratic right to express himself in whichever way he choses fit to do so, as long as he does not insult anybody......

 

[Hanrahan]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

Han...Please don't be so austerely harsh on Mime...He has not perpetrated a crime that deserves such a severe criticism......
It is (after all) his inalienable democratic right to express himself in whichever way he choses fit to do so, as long as he does not insult anybody......

You're right of course. Mime has the right to post as he wishes. But I reserve the right to ask for sources.

Mime: Please don't take this personally, after all I don't know you personally, but I spend a couple of hours a day reading macro economics. I am not an authority though and cannot write an authorative rebuttal on everything without chasing old reports as I did on the calorific value of ethinol production as I did earlier in this thread. I spent 15mins finding that report and wonder why I should have to do so when Google is so convenient. So peace

 

[Epsilon]

Re: Oil....Gold prices Will Go Up This Week!

Han...Thanks mate)))
Have a pleasant evening......

**** I have not read any books on Macro-Economics since I was at uni....Some 20 years ago......Interesting stuff...although, in today's world with so many unpredictable geo-political developments, almost on a daily basis is hard to implement a macro-economic analysis.....
For example, I just finished reading a report by the ....esteemed economic analysts at ABARE re: Next year's gold price....
They are besing their prediction entirely upon supply and demand factors (new gold production coming on line, de-hedging etc) and totally ignore the geopolitical economic uncertainties....
In my (humble) opinion their analysis and prediction is TOTALLY WRONG.....
.......And, of-course, those guys are getting paid super-handsomely in order to give us their "expert" opinion......