NUF - Nufarm Limited

[oldblue]

So did you get in?...or you gona wait for $6 something? opened at 7.29 and fell to its close at 7.12 which was a surprise to me as i thought the issue price would be a new floor....knife catching can be profitable and dangerous and prob best suited to a staged entry IMO.

The issue price is $5.75 so that could yet become the new floor, although I don't think so!

The theoretical ex issue price was $7.41 but that was even more theoretical than is usually the case, given the circumstances of a long previously announced issue but at an unknown ratio and an unknown price!

I'll be taking up my entitlement at $5.75 but will wait for some strength in the SP before deciding whether or not to buy more.

 

[oldblue]

To be honest I thought about buying on the bell but it was too close to the daily low for me. I think there will be a bit of an overhang with the rights issue and don't expect anything major soon. Also was this issue only
making up half of the 250 mil? If so...what about the rest?

What about yourself? In/out? Rights issue taken? What about others?

These "accelerated renounceable entitlement" issues seem to be the way they do things these days. Institutional holders first, then retail holders later. The institutional rights not taken up are offered in a bookbuild before the retail offer opens. The idea seems to be to get the issue placed and done with in short order!

See NUF's announcement of 20 April for the full details and dates.

 

[So_Cynical]

The issue price is $5.75 so that could yet become the new floor, although I don't think so!

The theoretical ex issue price was $7.41 but that was even more theoretical than is usually the case, given the circumstances of a long previously announced issue but at an unknown ratio and an unknown price!

I'll be taking up my entitlement at $5.75 but will wait for some strength in the SP before deciding whether or not to buy more.

lol shows you how much attention ive been paying...i thought the issue was at 7.50...so we have a long way to go to get down that low ($5.75) maybe it will turn out to be one of those super easy money opportunity's, it certainly looks like easy money at the moment.

 

[JTLP]

lol shows you how much attention ive been paying...i thought the issue was at 7.50...so we have a long way to go to get down that low ($5.75) maybe it will turn out to be one of those super easy money opportunity's, it certainly looks like easy money at the moment.

So are you expecting NUF to buck the trend or to continue lower? I think the rights will have an overhang effect and really do see the $6 price range coming into play. Don't know about $5.75 though...

I would attempt to get on these historic lows only when I'm happy with a trend. Missing a few cents here and there in this one due to uncertainty/profit takers isn't going to fuss me.

 

[oldblue]

NUF announced on Friday that the institutional bookbuild cleared the stock not taken up at $7.40. Doesn't look like $6.00 any time soon!

 

[JTLP]

NUF announced on Friday that the institutional bookbuild cleared the stock not taken up at $7.40. Doesn't look like $6.00 any time soon!

Haha if it got to $6.00 flat I'd be very happy to snare a few. My aim for the 6's is both a strategic and mindset one. Strategy in that I like the thought of an equity placement providing a floor and institutions taking up a heap as well.

Mindset in that if it touched the 6's i'd be happy to say I bought in there and trusted my instinct/valuation/startegy etc. I'm still betting on a bit of an overhang before decent gains but still...always time to get in!

 

[JTLP]

Haha if it got to $6.00 flat I'd be very happy to snare a few. My aim for the 6's is both a strategic and mindset one. Strategy in that I like the thought of an equity placement providing a floor and institutions taking up a heap as well.

Mindset in that if it touched the 6's i'd be happy to say I bought in there and trusted my instinct/valuation/startegy etc. I'm still betting on a bit of an overhang before decent gains but still...always time to get in!

So far i've been dead wrong and most likely expect it to stay that way. NUF finished on 7.64 today...basically 7-8% off the low of 7.08. Does anybody know when the shares hit accounts? Perhaps I'd wait for that

Still time still time...

 

[oldblue]

So far i've been dead wrong and most likely expect it to stay that way. NUF finished on 7.64 today...basically 7-8% off the low of 7.08. Does anybody know when the shares hit accounts? Perhaps I'd wait for that

Still time still time...

Yes, the clearance of the institutional overhang at $7.40 appears to have put a floor under the price.

As it was an entitlement issue it means that the instos who took them up, or most of them at least, don't have to wait for allotment if they want to sell some NUF. ( It was a 1 for 5 issue.) As they can sell "old" shares now I wouldn't expect that to be an issue.

But see NUF's announcement of 20 April for all relevant dates.

 

[JTLP]

It would appear my prediction of NUF in the 6's came to fruition; ableit not the way I predicted. However I pulled my buy order due to the market meltdown and now seem to have missed it completely. Here's hoping for more bad news from the Euro Zone or Wall st and I'll have a shot on Monday. Unlikely now =(

 

[So_Cynical]

It would appear my prediction of NUF in the 6's came to fruition; ableit not the way I predicted. However I pulled my buy order due to the market meltdown and now seem to have missed it completely. Here's hoping for more bad news from the Euro Zone or Wall st and I'll have a shot on Monday. Unlikely now =(

LOL predicted $6 something and didn't buy it the thing with meltdowns is ya just never know when and how far, and it mostly feels better to just wait and see etc...personally i put every cent i had into the market today.

The other thing about a meltdown is that there's dozens of stocks that look to be bargains so your spoilt for choice, and the stocks like NUF tend to fall off the radar or at least don't look as attractive.

 

[JTLP]

LOL predicted $6 something and didn't buy it the thing with meltdowns is ya just never know when and how far, and it mostly feels better to just wait and see etc...personally i put every cent i had into the market today.

The other thing about a meltdown is that there's dozens of stocks that look to be bargains so your spoilt for choice, and the stocks like NUF tend to fall off the radar or at least don't look as attractive.

I know right... Gotta have the courage to back my convictions. Was today the last onslaught? Who knows? US Job Data tonight...could swing either way. Why did you pump everything in today? Hopefully this and a few others are off peoples radars a little longer...

 

[So_Cynical]

I know right... Gotta have the courage to back my convictions. Was today the last onslaught? Who knows? US Job Data tonight...could swing either way. Why did you pump everything in today? Hopefully this and a few others are off peoples radars a little longer...

Long story as to why today and not yesterday, the day before etc, have to say that i usually buy in too early so time will tell if ive done it again. :dunno:

The bottom line is that you do have to back yourself sometimes, just believe in your judgement and do it, see XYZ or what ever at a stupid price and just put the crap to one side and buy it....ive seen 4 "bottoms" in the last 2 years and brought all of them and done well.

 

[JTLP]

So NUF is once again in my target range. The selling seems to be off screen and quite relentless so perhaps I'll wait a little longer. Thought it cost me last time.

Anywhoo, what is the pressure a result of? Market slowdowns? Profit taking?

 

[oldblue]

Probably retail holders selling to take up the issue at $5.75 without increasing overall exposure to NUF.

Issue closes this Friday.

 

[JTLP]

Probably retail holders selling to take up the issue at $5.75 without increasing overall exposure to NUF.

Issue closes this Friday.

Thanks for that info.

I've held out (again!) from buying after a really poor finish at the end of the day. Markets also looking toppy won't help anybody's cause.

Long term downtrend still in place...thought the cap raising would have provided a bit of a floor...

Watching...waiting...probably won't pull the trigger :

 

[So_Cynical]

Thanks for that info.

I've held out (again!) from buying after a really poor finish at the end of the day. Markets also looking toppy won't help anybody's cause.

Long term downtrend still in place...thought the cap raising would have provided a bit of a floor...

Watching...waiting...probably won't pull the trigger :

Markets looking toppy!!!!!!!! seriously markets looking toppy you say.

Fridays low for NUF was 6.62 and today's was 6.75..the SP may or may not get any closer to 5.75...at some point your gona have to just put a price on it your happy to pay or walk away and quite possibly watch NUF rally away from you.

Catching bottom can become a bit of a game where you wait to long...as i did a few times at "the" bottom....a good alternative is a 2 stage entry, even then with 2 goes at it, you wont get it 100% right...still what ever you do you need to be at ease with yourself and happy with your actions.

GL JTLP

 

[JTLP]

Markets looking toppy!!!!!!!! seriously markets looking toppy you say.

Fridays low for NUF was 6.62 and today's was 6.75..the SP may or may not get any closer to 5.75...at some point your gona have to just put a price on it your happy to pay or walk away and quite possibly watch NUF rally away from you.

Catching bottom can become a bit of a game where you wait to long...as i did a few times at "the" bottom....a good alternative is a 2 stage entry, even then with 2 goes at it, you wont get it 100% right...still what ever you do you need to be at ease with yourself and happy with your actions.

GL JTLP

Haha i'm a little B1tch aren't I.

I mean toppy for the current futures post: Euro bailout. I'm thinking a couple more points down but eh!

Thanks for the reinforcement. I know I have to do something and stop whinging...I just wanna get it right. The 2 staged entry is a good idea...will look at putting that into place as well.

I'm just cautious as I'm moving my portfolio to more longer term things and want to get it right from the start...even if it is longer term.

Are you in this one?

 

[oldblue]

There's nothing wrong with waiting for the trend to turn up, IMO.

In fact, I wouldn't be buying NUF at present but then I also wouldn't expect to be able to buy at the bottom. It may be reasonable to expect some strength in the SP once the issue is out of the way but I'd wait for some confirmation first.

Disc: Holding NUF and took up issue at $5.75.

 

[JTLP]

Bit the bullet today. Was away from the comp on the open but managed to get a little higher. Still largish volumes and 2 days to go before order forms can be in but i'm happy with this price for now.

What's with all the director notices at 7.07?

 

[ROE]

Wow what a week for NUF

I went all in today with $5.94, all my available cash.

are we all happy comrade Rudd Super Tax and Greece create some awesome opportunities