NUF - Nufarm Limited

[jojoventure]

I have been looking at NUF lately,

but too me it doesnt seem like a buy yet . Not expensive now, but just fairly priced at $5.60 per share as I write.

I ve been calculating its intrinsic value, and to me with a 4-5% annual growth this is what it should be priced.

Furthermore its downspiral of a trend does not seem like its going to reverse anytime soon.

Its historic PE ratio has been much larger then lately, and its earnings and profitability are bound to improve eventually, just not soon.

I am waiting, and i think it will be a buy at less then $3.00.

Unless some giant crops start growing this year in both europe and the US of A , I think the price will keep declining yet.

This is what I think for the Long term.

 

[oldblue]

I'm interested in why you think NUF will be a BUY at $3.00 when you also think it's fairly priced at $5.60?

Do you see a general decline in share prices or is this something specific to NUF?

(I think the forum discourages us from giving price predictions without stating reasons).

 

[jojoventure]

Sorry Oldblue I didnt mean to make a prediction, I just wanted to get a general feeling on this stock as I am stuck between 2 minds with it.

Well I have been calculating its intrinsic value, using a one-stage DCF model (with 4-5% growth), and thats what my calculations tell me(between $5-$7 per share). Has anybody else tried calculating its intrinsic value?

I think it would be a buy at half its current share price as I like shares to have little downside and a lot of upside space, and thats what I think would be the case with such a low share price. Clearly this is not a good scenario for current NUF shareholders; But at the moment I havent seen anything good in NUF and its businesses (apart for the aquisition of the GM seeds company, which could prove very useful in the LT).

I am looking for an excuse or a reason to buy this company.... I just cant find one yet

 

[Julia]

I am looking for an excuse or a reason to buy this company(

Why?

There are more than 2000 companies trading on the ASX, many proven longtime performers. Why are you trying to persuade yourself to buy something that's in such an abysmal downtrend?

 

[oldblue]

I am looking for an excuse or a reason to buy this company.... I just cant find one yet

No, I can't find a reason to buy NUF just now either - with its SP stuck in a downtrend.

No point in trying to guess the bottom. I have it on my watchlist for when the SP turns back up and starts to show some strength.

 

[JTLP]

Things are getting ugly for NUF.

There presentation released yesterday wasn't very inspiring...Elder's issuing a profit guidance in the negative (with such a positive outlook not long before that) and closing on a 5 year low of 5.50!

Agristocks out of favour?

 

[JTLP]

Nuf down 3.5% with no end in sight! This has been hit very hard recently. Management could really do with issuing some guidance. Feel sorry for holders since the glory days.

How's everybody else feeling?

 

[TheBull]

Hit my stop sell last week and I got out. Got in at 6.1. Sector is looking ill.... .

 

[jancha]

Thanks for that info.

I've held out (again!) from buying after a really poor finish at the end of the day. Markets also looking toppy won't help anybody's cause.

Long term downtrend still in place...thought the cap raising would have provided a bit of a floor...

Watching...waiting...probably won't pull the trigger :

BANG Feel sorry for those that hung on to this one.
Longterm should be good at this price.

 

[jancha]

BANG Feel sorry for those that hung on to this one.
Longterm should be good at this price.

Standards & poors rating for NUF is bb down from bbb-.
$3.00? As someone said could be around the mark.

 

[jojoventure]

Looks like a big downward spiral to me.

Anybody knows how is Nufarm's capital position. Surely this ratings downgrade can cause more already serious problems as their cost of capital will be higher. I have not seen their Leverage ratio, but if it is high, it certainly doesnt look good in their short medium term..... Shaky times ahead.......

 

[ROE]

Looks like a big downward spiral to me.

Anybody knows how is Nufarm's capital position. Surely this ratings downgrade can cause more already serious problems as their cost of capital will be higher. I have not seen their Leverage ratio, but if it is high, it certainly doesnt look good in their short medium term..... Shaky times ahead.......

Worse money I put in stock for a long time broke my rules and I pay the price but nothing too damaging for me plenty of other make up for stupid decision

Their cash flow is declining and they have to take on another 100m
I don't think it will kill them but look like it won't turn around for a while
Best hope for someone like me coming just under 6 is a take over in the next
12 months and walk away even or a little gain

It does have assets others wants so hopefully someone low ball it soon
It has total 450m debt thanks to the down grade...was 350 after capital raising

 

[Taltan]

Does anyone know the ramifications, costs of joining the Slater & Gordon legal case against NUF. I it free to join on a success fee basis

 

[noie]

Performed a quick calculation on this one today (wanting a little more exposure to the sector than IPL) and came up with 2.79 which surprised me somewhat.

I am sill looking.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Possible move here, out from base formation.

 

[pixel]

December Low has been broken, as has the recent falling trendline.
Even if this setup gives me as much (or little) gain as the last one did, an early entry will be worth it.



I bought today's break.

 

[pixel]

December Low has been broken, as has the recent falling trendline.
Even if this setup gives me as much (or little) gain as the last one did, an early entry will be worth it.

I bought today's break.

After selling at the initial resistance, I'm now back on board at $4.20, as a double top is no longer a threat.
Trailing stop lifted to break-even as a return below the breakout level would make it a false break.

 

[skc]

After selling at the initial resistance, I'm now back on board at $4.20, as a double top is no longer a threat.
Trailing stop lifted to break-even as a return below the breakout level would make it a false break.

View attachment 57340

NUF is reporting on 26 March... so be aware of potential gap either way.

 

[pixel]

NUF is reporting on 26 March... so be aware of potential gap either way.

Thanks mate
I did notice the Intraday sell-off and was wondering if I should take early profit.
If the 4.25 bids get taken out, there's not much demand apparent down to $3.90 or maybe even lower.

 

[pixel]

Thanks mate
I did notice the Intraday sell-off and was wondering if I should take early profit.
If the 4.25 bids get taken out, there's not much demand apparent down to $3.90 or maybe even lower.

... and a false break it turned out to be.



Glad I heeded your warning (and my gut feeling ) and took profit yesterday.