NUF - Nufarm Limited

[Miner]

Yes, I'm not interested in NUF anymore. It's going to take some time to stabilise and form another base pattern. The business needs time for the droughts to ease, time to reduce inventories, time to see if there's any ramifications from the Monsanto case. reduce debt levels etc.

Of course I could be wrong and price makes a dramatic "V" reversal. I need to wait for a low risk opportunity. V reversals are not low risk. Gambling is not low risk.

Ha Ha @peter2 .
Gambling is low risk only when you buy 1 game at $1.10 (less than a Kit Kat's normal price) and try to win Power Ball Jack Pot. I am leaving on you to calculate the probability of success however

 

[peter2]

Since my untimely call that the "bottom was in" on NUF the price has indeed made a "V" reversal to fill the gap. Price is still below the sloping resistance line and should need more time to form a solid base.
I've put this back in the reversal watch list and waiting for a weekly HL pattern to form.

 

[rnr]

As I see it, prices over the last 4 bars have been consolidating, so where to from here?

 

[Smurf1976]

Since my untimely call that the "bottom was in" on NUF the price has indeed made a "V" reversal to fill the gap. Price is still below the sloping resistance line and should need more time to form a solid base.

Just an update but price is back down to the March lows as of now.

Whether that's a double bottom in the making or whether it's got further to fall I won't claim to know as this isn't a stock I know much about.

Do not hold, it just came to my attention so thought others might be interested.

 

[peter2]

I've had NUF in a reversal watch list waiting for a weekly HL. Now that price has gone below the last low it doesn't deserve to be watched any more. Clearly mgt have a tough job coping with the current trading conditions.

Their recent presentation (Macquarie Australia Conference 2019) was optimistic and their next report will be interesting.

This is one for the deep value investors, contrarians and magicians to start picking over. I'll wait for them to start investing.

 

[Ann]

Just a chart for Miner, $3.50 could be a floor but I wouldn't be taking any bets. It is still well under the falling overhead resistance line coming from June 2018. It may see a short term rally if it hits $3.50 in an effort to overcome the falling overhead but I would be astounded if it did overcome the falling overhead. However I could be wrong, it might surprise us all!

This is a 10 year daily chart.

 

[qldfrog]

I think the glyphosate lawsuit potential is what is leading the fall.

 

[qldfrog]

https://www.mauriceblackburn.com.au/injury-law/occupational-diseases/roundup-investigation/

 

[qldfrog]

Shark are circling, in a world of antivaxx and GW propaganda, who cares about facts or science

 

[Knobby22]

Shark are circling, in a world of antivaxx and GW propaganda, who cares about facts or science

True.
Shouldn't the law require scientific evidence? Maybe we need to ensure juries to be scientifically literate.

 

[qldfrog]

True.
Shouldn't the law require scientific evidence? Maybe we need to ensure juries to be scientifically literate.

Definitively,when you see billions compensation for a gardener having cancer.. seriously
This is public mob lynching, but you will see our usual leftist in full support, and in 20y a country overun with weeds
Lantana,blackberries etc should in an ideal world not be in Australia but they are....
And when the next bushfire is more destructive than ever, blame global warming
Vast areas in southern Europe are following this scenario even before glyphosate ban due to rural population collapse.

 

[notting]

I've used Round up for about 35 years. I never bothered even taking the safety precautions, meaning no gloves and getting the concentrate, not the diluted stuff you get off the muppet shelves, on my bare hands!!
I have no problem with it! I know lots of other guys who are the same. It's a total beat up and all started when Monsato developed Glysophate resistant seed. Took out a patent which pretty much forced all farmers to have to use their seed.
Any way. Eventually when this will all come out and is cleared NUF and BAYN will be awesome buys if they can get through the costly litigation BS and battles.

I actually come from a legal family and have a bit of lawyer instinct!! At the very least I would pose this question to the claimants. "Was Glysophate the only chemical you were spraying regularly in your career!?" You can bet that anyone in industries that spray stuff like this will also be spraying pesticides, far more likely to effect a person's health than a herbicide. I would then request that the claimant do the same amount of research on all the other chemicals he had exposed himself to regularly before assuming it was conclusive that it was Glysophate that was the cause of his health issues!! There are lots of other good arguments too!!

 

[qldfrog]

Same, no problem with glyphosate use in my place, i limit but definitely do not forbid.
But no mosquito spray or baygon in my home
People are so deluded and brainwashed..

 

[notting]

Any one for a law suit?

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

NUF has gone up 7.38% today on not unreasonable volume

I would ask why?

Someone pushing the price up to get out or insider information on good news?

gg

 

[notting]

This is the relevant news regarding Bayer - German company that bought Monsanto

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ndup-jury-verdict-court-hearing-idUSKCN1TX32C

Bayer is up 17% over the last 12 days after the massive fall because of this BS.

Keep this in mind -

Dr Joshua Mylne is an Australian Research Council Future Fellow appointed jointly to the School of Chemistry and Biochemistry and The ARC Centre of Excellence in Plant Energy Biology at the University of Western Australia.

"Frankly, I tire of this glyphosate(RoundUp) mania, which I hoped would stay in the USA – the silence as scientists wait for people to be sensible seems not to be working, so I will try to say something.

The overwhelming opinion of experts is that glyphosate is safe. People forget ‘the dose maketh the poison’.

The scary data sheets that come with herbicides are for the concentrated compound, plus all the chemicals needed to dissolve it, plus the detergents needed to allow the chemical to penetrate the leaf – the concentrate is a toxic cocktail to be sure.

However, the concentration at which what’s in the bottle is applied is usually 1,000 times less, or even more dilute than that. What might remain behind days or weeks after spraying might be many orders of magnitude more diluted than what it was applied at. (of course it is, otherwise things would not grow back in 2 weeks’ time!!)

Our exposure to toxins is a constant - some exposure is more noticeable than others. One of our favourite drugs, alcohol, is quite toxic and a KNOWN carcinogen yet we pour it down our throats with vigor every weekend. It is considered a carcinogen by Cancer Australia as well as the IARC who ruled that for ethanol there was “sufficient evidence (highest IARC classification of carcinogenicity)” for it causing cancer of the oral cavity, pharynx, larynx, oesophagus, colorectum, liver (hepatocellular carcinoma), and female breast.

I wish people would trust experts and keep some perspective. If you seriously want to lower your cancer risk, keep using Roundup and stop drinking. I am disappointed to think Australia might go down the same road as the hyper-litigious USA."

Professor Ivan Kennedy is an expert in risk assessment and environmental fate of pesticides at the University of Sydney

"The International Agency for Research on Cancer made a bad mistake in claiming glyphosate was a probable cause of cancer. There is no convincing evidence for this and much evidence gathered over 40 years about it as the safest herbicide known. Any replacement will be more likely to be damaging to human health. Of course, I also agree with the previous article from Sydney Institute of Agriculture that it is unfortunate farmers are so reliant on glyphosate and that alternatives as good aren’t available. But just as that SIA article says, finding a replacement as good is very unlikely. The precise specificity for affecting plants only by a chemical inherently so safe to animals is unlikely to be repeated. I sincerely regret that the law is being used so badly in this case."

Also be mindful that companies can be destroyed by endless law suits and the product will have a taint with super sensitive millennials who tend to be fanatically religious with conspiracy theories they discover on the net.
Also Monsanto was an absolute c--t of a company. So there is a lot of hatred and want to kill out there on this one.
However I will be likely going in pretty hard on it! Unfortunately I missed the run today.

 

[Miner]

Just a chart for Miner, $3.50 could be a floor but I wouldn't be taking any bets. It is still well under the falling overhead resistance line coming from June 2018. It may see a short term rally if it hits $3.50 in an effort to overcome the falling overhead but I would be astounded if it did overcome the falling overhead. However I could be wrong, it might surprise us all!

This is a 10 year daily chart.

View attachment 95302

Thanks @Ann
Sorry missed your posting with a special chart for me.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I'm still not sure about NUF.

I got badly stung by Ansell. ASX:ANN (lol Ann)

I bought it back in the 80's when I set up my SMSF thinking that condoms will always sell. I didn't realise they also made dodgy heart valves. I've held on and am ahead but it's not a screamer, excuse the pun.

I've looked at NUF many, many times. Never bought.

I wonder how much rust is under the iron.

I'll wait and see. It's certainly at a good price.

gg

 

[notting]

Another thing that hurt it was the drought that hit most of the south east of Australia leading for the year leading up to this winter. When there are droughts you don't need to spray nearly as much and guys like NUF and Graincorp get hit pretty hard.
Some will want to confirm that we are not going to get a continuation of that before going in hard.
If climate change is becoming a thing these things could suffer more -

We should be in the high 60s at this time of year.

 

[Smurf1976]

Mixed thoughts on this one from me.

The issues others have mentioned as negatives.

"It will rain sometime" is the positive. Droughts always break eventually and it's not as though farming is likely to disappear as an industry.