NUF - Nufarm Limited

[So_Cynical]

Why would Hartley have a recommended buy on NUF when the markets showing otherwise and any thoughts from chartist regarding NUF?

Perhaps there actually prepared to back there judgement instead of playing it safe and going with the crowd...jancha ill post a 3 year chart so we can see what the market has thought of NUF week by week over the last 3 years...now can you please tell me at what level do you think the market was right and what level you would buy at??? $8.30 or closer to 18?

Very interested to read your reply
~

 

[footlose]

Of course this didn't come entirely out of the blue - the Chinese had tried before and to a lot of investors it was only a matter of when they would try again.
A combination of a depressed market, a profit downgrade from NUF and subsequent drop in the SP were all the ingredients needed to re-ignite a bid.
I bought a few today because I reckon NUF is a well run company with a good business and prospects. At $10-$11 I'll be happy to hold, whether or not this situation develops into an actual offer.

The Chinese usualy bargain for the best price.I hope we retain a well placed Aussie based company.Due to the record rainfall this year I am sure NUF will have a bumper year,and a good recovery.The local farmers arround here think so.

 

[jancha]

Perhaps there actually prepared to back there judgement instead of playing it safe and going with the crowd...jancha ill post a 3 year chart so we can see what the market has thought of NUF week by week over the last 3 years...now can you please tell me at what level do you think the market was right and what level you would buy at??? $8.30 or closer to 18?

Very interested to read your reply
~

So-Cynical thanks for the chart but in all honesty im not a chart reader & for you to ask me from the chart at what level the market was correct & at what level i would buy in at is beyond me.
However the past year the volume in trading is considerably higher as the previous two years and it's currently at it's lowest resistance level but as far as what level the market is correct is at what current sp it is at the time. The markets never wrong. Yes
We just hope that when we buy in it's at a point when the sp heads north.
As i said before im no chartist but at some point NUF will have to go lower or higher in sp so back to you with your chart & to my original question how would a chartist read the chart?

 

[jancha]

Probably because they consider it undervalued at the current shareprice compared to their own valuation.

On the other hand, the market is still waiting to see the terms and price of the forthcoming cash issue and reluctant to bid up the SP meanwhile.

Must Huntley's must think it's a real bargin in that case
Currently $7.96 and a 3.6% drop in sp.

 

[jancha]

Perhaps there actually prepared to back there judgement instead of playing it safe and going with the crowd...jancha ill post a 3 year chart so we can see what the market has thought of NUF week by week over the last 3 years...now can you please tell me at what level do you think the market was right and what level you would buy at??? $8.30 or closer to 18?

Very interested to read your reply
~

SoCynical
Nuf is enough on this judging by the large sells & the current sp.
Huntleys recommendation for a buy on this has me wondering.
As for the 3 year chart you posted last week i cant see any relevance in studying it the way the market's hammering it down to $7.54.
Have noticed tho that the volume in buyers is picking up.

 

[oldblue]

As far as I can tell Huntleys are basically value investors. They do their own analysis of a stock and decide whether the market is undervaluing ( a Buy) or over-valuing ( a Sell) with degrees such as Accumulate, Hold, Reduce between these extremes.

Others prefer to invest on TA and for them NUF is a no-no at present.

Personally, I reckon there's a fair bit of pressure being exerted to make sure that management isn't tempted to put some fancy over-price on the new issue.

 

[ROE]

On valuation look pretty good .... Chinese made the right move to walk
I wouldnt pay $12 or $11 a pop but at this price it's a different story

a couple things I dont like about NUF but the risk and reward ratio stack up so I break a few of my rules and take on one of Lou Simpson and see if it will cost me or reward me

sold a 2 stocks today including DMP in preparation for the onslaught....

 

[JTLP]

Kinda breaking new ground here on the 5 year chart. It did dip down to 7.30 back in early December '08 but still...looks kinda iffy. Steady downtrend since Nov '09 and as said earlier...on a T/A perspective oldblue has it hit straight on the head...big no no.

Oh well I don't know enough about the story but was waiting for an entry...the wait will continue...

 

[So_Cynical]

SoCynical
Nuf is enough on this judging by the large sells & the current sp.
Huntleys recommendation for a buy on this has me wondering.
As for the 3 year chart you posted last week i cant see any relevance in studying it the way the market's hammering it down to $7.54.
Have noticed tho that the volume in buyers is picking up.

The Market does whatever it does, i don't like over analysing why anyone is selling or buying because it make no sense to me...stocks getting hammered always means that they fall past the point of sensible value and approach the ridiculous.

NUF is now approaching the ridiculous IMO...all over sold stocks bottom with a reasonably sharp V and i would expect that with NUF, even in a rallying, toppish bear market....I'm watching with interest but must admit that my buying attention is elsewhere.

The markets never wrong. Yes

Correct, however the markets only right one second at a time...so any trader/investor with time on there side has a clear advantage.

 

[bloomy88]

$250 million equity raising announced today. Can buy 1 new NUF share for every 5 you hold for $5.75.

Record date is this Friday. Does this mean that you already have to hold NUF shares to be entitled to the capital raising?

Great prospects for this company imo as farmers will have to continue to look for more efficient ways to farm with less water...

 

[JTLP]

That's a pretty deep discount. I suspect the sustained pressure from last week was people in the know?

Ahh well I'll wait for a dump of the shares and try and pick some up cheap!

 

[ROE]

$250 million equity raising announced today. Can buy 1 new NUF share for every 5 you hold for $5.75.

Record date is this Friday. Does this mean that you already have to hold NUF shares to be entitled to the capital raising?

Great prospects for this company imo as farmers will have to continue to look for more efficient ways to farm with less water...

Yeah you have to have bought the share Monday to qualify
It stays in trading halt till Friday.

I bought up last week at 5 years low nothing cause a perfect storm
like earning downgrade and cut dividend pretty much like Flight Centre not long ago

 

[JTLP]

Will be interested to see what price this will open up at when trading resumes/when the rights are issued. As I said earlier it's a pretty deep discount and I'm hoping to pick this up somewhere in the low to mid 6's. Do holders have any inclination as to what the rights issue will do to the price?

 

[ROE]

Will be interested to see what price this will open up at when trading resumes/when the rights are issued. As I said earlier it's a pretty deep discount and I'm hoping to pick this up somewhere in the low to mid 6's. Do holders have any inclination as to what the rights issue will do to the price?

(5 x 7.75 + 1 x 5.75) / 6 = $7.41

if you didnt pick up for $7.35 last week I doubt you can get any lower
but you never know with the market...it does mis-price sometimes and
buy up and buy big when it does...

 

[oldblue]

Yes, the theoretical rights price is $1.66 but this is highly "theoretical" given that the cum rights price was factoring in a known issue but at an unknown ratio and price.

Personally, I could be interested if the rights trade much below $1.66 or the heads below $7.41.

 

[JTLP]

Yes, the theoretical rights price is $1.66 but this is highly "theoretical" given that the cum rights price was factoring in a known issue but at an unknown ratio and price.

Personally, I could be interested if the rights trade much below $1.66 or the heads below $7.41.

Thanks ROE and oldblue. Are the rights tradeable though? And when do they hit the market if so?

In saying I'm hoping for under 7.41...you may be right ROE...the market pushed it right down before this cap raising...so it might be difficult to get a sniff.

Still...I'm hoping people are big profit takers and let me on board =p

 

[oldblue]

Thanks ROE and oldblue. Are the rights tradeable though? And when do they hit the market if so?

In saying I'm hoping for under 7.41...you may be right ROE...the market pushed it right down before this cap raising...so it might be difficult to get a sniff.

Still...I'm hoping people are big profit takers and let me on board =p

I've clarified with the NUF issue "hotline" that there won't be any rights trading. Shares not taken up will be deemed to be effectively renounced and offered in a Retail Bookbuild after the issue closes. Net proceeds will be distributed to rights holders.

It will be interesting to see where the ex issue shares open when trading recommences. Anything under $7.41 would get my further interest!

 

[So_Cynical]

Still...I'm hoping people are big profit takers and let me on board =p

So did you get in?...or you gona wait for $6 something? opened at 7.29 and fell to its close at 7.12 which was a surprise to me as i thought the issue price would be a new floor....knife catching can be profitable and dangerous and prob best suited to a staged entry IMO.

 

[JTLP]

So did you get in?...or you gona wait for $6 something? opened at 7.29 and fell to its close at 7.12 which was a surprise to me as i thought the issue price would be a new floor....knife catching can be profitable and dangerous and prob best suited to a staged entry IMO.

To be honest I thought about buying on the bell but it was too close to the daily low for me. I think there will be a bit of an overhang with the rights issue and don't expect anything major soon. Also was this issue only
making up half of the 250 mil? If so...what about the rest?

What about yourself? In/out? Rights issue taken? What about others?

 

[So_Cynical]

What about yourself? In/out? Rights issue taken? What about others?

As far as im concerned, the dividend yield isn't enough for me and i cant see much upside, and in general don't like the business, also have no idea where the bottom is or could be :dunno:...all my funds are other wise engaged anyway as one of my core holdings is having a SPP and i plan to take as many as i can get.

Whatever you and others decide to do...good luck.