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Nickel is back!

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I've been getting alerts nearly every day, for months now, of nickel hitting a new 52 week low.

"There's nothing like a nickel boom" . Muppet.

Monthly bars.
Will find support "soon", once enough blood has been spilled.
"Soon" can be defined as;
an undefined length of time, measured in days, weeks or months.

 
i also hold NIC ( along with BHP and a very distressed PAN )

MCR was a winner for me as was OZL despite being better known as a copper/gold producer , while WSA crystallized a loss

i inherited some Poseidon Nickel certificates ( from that infamous company back in the '70s )

nickel for me nah not in Australia as a single commodity play

the Greenies/politics will screw the cost basis

i messed with nickel miners enough now to understand the '70s was not a 'one-off '
 
BHP (and me) have been banking that the Western EV makers will choose sulphide nickel over laterite due to the energy / emissions demands of producing laterite over sulphide. There's supposed to be a 50c per pound premium for sulphide.

The only problem is ..... China. China doesn't care about emissions, they just worry about price. I don't know how much, but a lot of the nickel in Indonesia and the Philippines is half owned by China.

So, I think we're counting on big auto in Europe and the US who are converting to 100% EVs between 2030-35 to be paying a premium for nickel in sulphides.

The short term surplus has been well advertised this year, but when and if it turns into a deficit may depend on Indonesian output and Western EV OEMs to pay extra for the virtue signalling.

One thing that may be in sulphide's favour is if there is a government direction that EV makers must include the embedded cost of emissions in battery production into the emissions cost of producing an EV and there be some sort of tax on it. Not sure if we're heading in that direction, but if Canada can put a CO2 tax on a grocery bill then I daresay that's where everything else is going.
 
i also over-looked my previous holding in IGO where i had a ( relatively ) short but profitable ride

but i bought that on it's Tropicana exposure , when they sold their share of Tropicana i sold out of IGO
 
divs4ever said:
i also over-looked my previous holding in IGO where i had a ( relatively ) short but profitable ride

but i bought that on it's Tropicana exposure , when they sold their share of Tropicana i sold out of IGO
Click to expand...

IGO's a long hold for me. The battery narrative is alive and well in the medium to longer term, unless a flux capacitor is invented very soon.
 
Sean K said:
IGO's a long hold for me. The battery narrative is alive and well in the medium to longer term, unless a flux capacitor is invented very soon.
Click to expand...
am not convinced lithium is the answer to all problems , it will still be used though

have seen some ( uncommercialized ) capacitor tech that might become popular , am watching the alternate tech for home/farm/business storage ( for personal use and investment )

costs might be the lithium-killer

but i do hold WES ( bought before they bought a lithium project ) and have no immediate plans to offload WES
 
Dona Ferentes said:
the scale and lack of sophistication in Indonesia's Nickel boom can be seen in this vid.

Deadly conditions inside Indonesia’s nickel indus…:
Click to expand...
they ( the broadcaster ) don't seem to mind the cobalt mining in Africa , or gold mining in the Philippines ( other developing nations )

maybe Indonesia is 'anti-Woke ' and that is their crime

maybe Bill Shorten can rush over there and 'save the miners ' ( on the way to getting re-elected PM )
 
IGO AGM Preso out and their nickel supply demand graph looks like they're pushing the deficit to the right by a year or so. This is still highly dependant on Indonesia I think as their 18,000 islands seem to be made of Class 2 laterite nickel and they're very happy to dig it all up and post it to China not caring about the emissions implications. Yet to see too much advantage of being a sulphide explorer/producer at this point. :-(

 
well i bit the bullet and bought some IGO shortly before the close

time will tell if it was wise
 
Sean K said:
Someone tell Indonesia to dial it back or they'll kill the market.
Click to expand...
I think they already have.

Most forecasts had PON much higher than where it currently is.
Fitch had it $15k for 2024 but had raised that to $17k, which we are seeing now, earlier than forecast.

I'm rethinking the plan re exposure to nickel, as a contrarian approach any time soon, seems to be overly jumping the gun, by years.

Indonesia ain't going away unfortunately.
 
Unless we can get into, what they are into, we will be toast.
Our whole future is being bet on the fact that we will have clean $hit, so everyone will want it.
Indonesia don't give a $hit and their nickel is a lot dirtier than ours, but Tesla is talking about building a battery giga factory there and I'LL bet a pound to a pinch of $hit that BYD and CATYL will also.
Meanwhile we will be sitting back here with our 'clean' nickel sulphide mines shut down, as we smugly sit back telling everyone how we are nailing it.
While bringing in more migrants, to build more houses, to support our investment in the housing ponzi and blaming baby boomers as the reason no one afford one.
The clever country, keep pouring more money into supporting 1/4 of an acre in Sydney/ Melbourne being worth $4m dollars, while Indonesia builds giga factories.

Please flush twice, it's a long way to Canberra..

 
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