JohnDe
La dolce vita
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All depends on whether large multinationals are happy and willing to buy from countries with poor health and safety standards.
All depends on whether large multinationals are happy and willing to buy from countries with poor health and safety standards.
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have only NIC left as a major nickel play ( i also hold S32 and BHP but they are multi-commodity miners )
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Current and short term target.
< 3 months
< 3 months
Sean K
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Some good news on the Nickel front and especially for Canada Nickel with Samsung putting in a chunk of equity and locking in offtakes. CNC doubled over the past few days.
So, not all doom and gloom. Hopefully some more partnering and offtakes for our juniors down the track.
So, not all doom and gloom. Hopefully some more partnering and offtakes for our juniors down the track.
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Not wanting to be the prophet of doom Sean, but at the moment over here in nickel central, it ain't looking so rosy.
Hopefully the Govt can think of an incentive, to encourage a global battery manufacturer to build a gigga factory here as was suggested a couple of years ago.
At least then when we buy all these grid batteries, we're supporting our own jobs, rather than losing jobs and buying batteries from overseas.
Maybe Samsung could build a factory here if we gave them an incentive, let's be honest Tesla was looking here before they decided on Indonesia.
Meanwhile we seem to be addressing every social issue known to man, while China play us like a fiddle.
February 2023:
Albanese: Keep critical minerals in Australia, make our own batteries
Linking national security to domestic industry, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese wants to put money into projects that could expand manufacturing and recover from the loss of the big carmakers.
The comments came in a response to a question about China’s desire for approval from Canberra to invest in big mining projects and gain access to lithium at a time of growing demand for the minerals needed for high-tech devices.
“We need to not just dig it up. I want to make sure we use the lithium and nickel and other products we have to make batteries here,” Albanese said.
Another blow for WA's nickel boom as Ravensthorpe mine suspends mining
The owner of the Ravensthorpe nickel operation on WA's south coast says it will suspend mining and cut 30 per cent of its 420-strong workforce.
www.abc.net.au
Canada's First Quantum Minerals has today announced the changes in response to weaker metal prices — the second casualty in as many weeks for WA's once-booming nickel industry.
In a statement, First Quantum Minerals said it will continue to produce nickel from ore stockpiles, and the suspension of mining will ensure Ravensthorpe remains viable in the long-term.
The stockpiles are anticipated to take the next 18 months to two years to process before mining resumes at the Hale Bopp and Halleys ore bodies at Ravensthorpe.
It is expected that 125 workers will lose their jobs.
Ravensthorpe was last placed on care and maintenance in 2017, but restarted mining again in 2020.
Today's announcement follows the closure of the Savannah nickel mine in the Kimberley, which was announced last week and saw its 140-strong workforce made redundant.
Construction halted at Cosmos
IGO has paused the construction of the mechanised materials handling system at is Cosmos nickel operation in Western Australia.
www.australianmining.com.au
The eight mines most at risk of closure amid a battery metals slump
The boom in battery metal prices has turned to bust, prompting closure of high-cost Australian lithium and nickel operations. Could these be the next to shut?
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I had forgotten about this post a few months back, jeez I must have put a curse on, or something.
The good thing is, we are building a lot more social housing, I think that will be a huge growth industry in the making.
The good thing is, we are building a lot more social housing, I think that will be a huge growth industry in the making.
Unless we can get into, what they are into, we will be toast.
Our whole future is being bet on the fact that we will have clean $hit, so everyone will want it.
Indonesia don't give a $hit and their nickel is a lot dirtier than ours, but Tesla is talking about building a battery giga factory there and I'LL bet a pound to a pinch of $hit that BYD and CATYL will also.
Meanwhile we will be sitting back here with our 'clean' nickel sulphide mines shut down, as we smugly sit back telling everyone how we are nailing it.
While bringing in more migrants, to build more houses, to support our investment in the housing ponzi and blaming baby boomers as the reason no one afford one.
The clever country, keep pouring more money into supporting 1/4 of an acre in Sydney/ Melbourne being worth $4m dollars, while Indonesia builds giga factories.
Please flush twice, it's a long way to Canberra..
View attachment 165818
Sean K
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I had forgotten about this post a few months back, jeez I must have put a curse on, or something.
The good thing is, we are building a lot more social housing, I think that will be a huge growth industry in the making.
Yes, there was supposed to be a premium for sulphide and EV/battery makers were going to have to buy it to keep their total CO2 in check. That doesn't seem to be happening in the slightest. But, CNC getting funding from Samsung might be a good sign.
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The only benefit sulphide has as far as I know, is it is much cleaner to process and the residue is no where near as toxic.
The narrative has been that we will get a premium price for our nickel due to its 'Green' credentials, but as Usual the reality very seldom meets the narrative, unless we can get a top battery manufacturer to build a plant here we are toast IMO.
As I've mentioned in other threads the next big issue is going to be processing industries that use fossil fuel, a lot will be working out whether it is worth the expense to replacing their generating plant, or just shutting down.
Take for example Alumina, as far as I know the process requires steam, therefore the power station makes the steam and after it goes through the turbine it exhausts through the plant, which means really the electricity is a byproduct of the process.
So will it be worth replacing the power station with enough renewables to make the steam and enough renewables to make the electricity required to run the plant.
I guess it will depend on how much money they actually make from processing the bauxite, as opposed to just exporting it. Add to that the environmental issues surrounding mining the bauxite.
These are just my understanding of the issues, maybe @IFocus can correct me if I'm wrong, he appears to know the plant, I have never worked there, it is just my understanding from talking to technical people who have.
Scary times at the moment IMO. a lot of people coming in, a lot industries working out if they are viable.
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What? You mean like this.
Indonesian government said on Tuesday there was a strong indication of a safety procedure violation that led to a fire at a nickel smelter on Sulawesi island that killed 21 workers.
A fire broke out on Dec. 24 at a furnace in a smelter operated by Tsingshan Stainless Steel Indonesia, located in the country’s largest nickel hub, the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP).
Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP)
Commencing construction in 2013, Tsingshan has now established industry recognised infrastructure and operational facilities at the IMIP.
nickelindustries.com
The development of the IMIP and its competitive operational cost structure is underpinned by several factors:
- The ability to source an abundance of higher grade (>1.8% nickel grade) nickel ore which is now restricted from export from Indonesia as a result of the Indonesian Government’s ban on the exportation of unprocessed nickel ore under a grade of 4% nickel.
- The generation of competitive electricity costs by the IMIP’s purpose-built 1.26GW power plant which is powered by domestically sourced thermal coal.
- The vertically integrated nature of operations within the IMIP to produce a stainless steel end product, utilising the key raw material inputs, including nickel ore and power.
Dona Ferentes
Abrió la caja, vio al gatito, y sonrió
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“The nickel industry is undergoing a number of structural changes and is at a cyclical low in realised pricing,” BHP said in today's Quarterly update. “Nickel West is not immune to these challenges. Operations are being actively optimised, and options are being evaluated to mitigate the impacts of the sharp fall in nickel prices.”
BHP also said it would consider whether it needed to take a writedown on the value of the Nickel West asset.
BHP also said it would consider whether it needed to take a writedown on the value of the Nickel West asset.
JohnDe
La dolce vita
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What? You mean like this.
Indonesian government said on Tuesday there was a strong indication of a safety procedure violation that led to a fire at a nickel smelter on Sulawesi island that killed 21 workers.
A fire broke out on Dec. 24 at a furnace in a smelter operated by Tsingshan Stainless Steel Indonesia, located in the country’s largest nickel hub, the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP).
Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP)
Commencing construction in 2013, Tsingshan has now established industry recognised infrastructure and operational facilities at the IMIP.
The development of the IMIP and its competitive operational cost structure is underpinned by several factors:
- The ability to source an abundance of higher grade (>1.8% nickel grade) nickel ore which is now restricted from export from Indonesia as a result of the Indonesian Government’s ban on the exportation of unprocessed nickel ore under a grade of 4% nickel.
- The generation of competitive electricity costs by the IMIP’s purpose-built 1.26GW power plant which is powered by domestically sourced thermal coal.
- The vertically integrated nature of operations within the IMIP to produce a stainless steel end product, utilising the key raw material inputs, including nickel ore and power.
Unless something changes from the buyer side, it looks like Indonesia have the market sown up.
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Pressure needs to be applied against Indonesia for being China's puppets.
Sean K
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And, China and Indonesia are the No 1 and 2 plastic in the ocean polluters as well. It's understandable due to their geography and 'developing' country status but the've got a long history of not really giving a fvk about the environment.
Maybe the West needs to establish a separate market for nickel in sulphate for all EU, US, Sth Korean and Japanese battery and steel makers. They're going to have to report on their Scope 3 emissions at some stage, if not already.
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As I said earlier where has all the talk of building a battery manufacturing plant here gone? Just give Samsung. LG or Tesla a tax incentive to process here we have the ingredients just need the tech and Govt support.
Let's be honest the last Govt got CSL to build a vaccine manufacturing plant in Victoria, it's about time we moved on with secondary manufacturing and using our materials, rather than just talking crap to get elected.
Why can't we supply our own grid batteries, we are going to need plenty of them.
Taxpayers, CSL to build vaccine manufacturing plant
The Morrison government will spend $1 billion over a decade to underwrite the construction of a new vaccine production facility to guarantee the nation continues to have its own supply of flu shots, antivenins and, if another pandemic occurs, the sovereign capability to look after its own...
Under the deal, CSL subsidiary Seqirus will spend $800 million to build a new state-of-the-art facility at Melbourne's Tullamarine airport.
Sean K
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As I said earlier where has all the talk of building a battery manufacturing plant here gone? Just give Samsung. LG or Tesla a tax incentive to process here we have the ingredients just need the tech and Govt support.
Let's be honest the last Govt got CSL to build a vaccine manufacturing plant in Victoria, it's about time we moved on with secondary manufacturing and using our materials, rather than just talking crap to get elected.
Why can't we supply our own grid batteries, we are going to need plenty of them.
The Morrison government will spend $1 billion over a decade to underwrite the construction of a new vaccine production facility to guarantee the nation continues to have its own supply of flu shots, antivenins and, if another pandemic occurs, the sovereign capability to look after its own citizens first.
Taxpayers, CSL to build vaccine manufacturing plant
The Morrison government will spend $1 billion over a decade to underwrite the construction of a new vaccine production facility to guarantee the nation continues to have its own supply of flu shots, antivenins and, if another pandemic occurs, the sovereign capability to look after its own...www.afr.com
Under the deal, CSL subsidiary Seqirus will spend $800 million to build a new state-of-the-art facility at Melbourne's Tullamarine airport.
I think Wyloo and IGO still have plans for precursor material at Kwinana but they should be going one step further and build the actual batteries. Maybe we don't have the people in Perth to do it? Wouldn't be too hard to put the material on an extra carriage on the Indian Pacific and have a factory in Sydney.
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I think we should go much further and copy Indonesia https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/indonesia-s-uncertain-climb-nickel-value-chain
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From your article:
The law aimed at expanding domestic benefits from mining by requiring mining companies to domestically add value through processing and refining minerals before exporting.
Funnily enough we used to do that, when BHP opened up, Cockatoo Island, Koolan Island and Koolyanobbing in the 1960's the Government made them build a blast furnace at Kwinana, it was meant to be followed by a steel furnace in the early 1980's, but it never eventuated.
Also back then the companies were made to build townships and communities, oh where have the politicians with some vision and a drive to build Australia gone?
These days, all our politicians want to do is nothing other than tinker with taxes, outsource their work and polish seats IMO.
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
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Could somebody post a "mad minute write" summarising Nickel, to bring me up to speed.
I normally spell it Nickle, which shows how out of date I am ! Although I do remember some British cousins losing a motza one afternoon a few years ago when it crashed.
gg
I normally spell it Nickle, which shows how out of date I am ! Although I do remember some British cousins losing a motza one afternoon a few years ago when it crashed.
gg
Good afternoon @Garpal Gumnut
Hoping find you well and have a very nice weekend.
Kind regards
rcw1
13.1 Summary
Chinese demand (from end-uses such as stainless steel and EV battery production) continues to drive global nickel consumption, now forecast to rise by 5.5% year-on-year in 2023 and by 7.4% annually to 2025. A continuing oversupply in the global nickel market — driven by strong growth in Indonesian and Chinese supply — is expected to peak in 2023, though will remain over the outlook period. Weaker prices over the outlook period are expected to push Australian nickel export earnings lower, falling from $5.0 billion in 2022–23 to $3.9 billion in 2023–24, before recovering to $4.3 billion in 2024–25.
13.2 World consumption
World nickel demand continues to expand in 2023 due to China
Global refined nickel consumption continues to strengthen, with 5.8% year-on-year growth in the year to September. While most major markets have seen declining demand this year, China usage has seen a significant rebound, rising 16% year-on-year over the period. Global stainless steel output — which represented around 70% of refined nickel demand in 2021 — continues to be a significant driver of growth in Chinese nickel demand. In the September quarter 2023, China has seen a 28% year-on-year increase in stainless steel production, with output expanding due to increased infrastructure spending by China’s central government in recent years.
Electric vehicle demand to continue to drive nickel consumption to 2025
Despite growing global macroeconomic uncertainty, electric vehicle demand has continued to grow through 2023, with world sales of full electric vehicles rising close to 40% in the year to August. Nickel chemistries continue to dominate the global battery market with nickel-manganese-cobalt (NMC) and nickel-cobalt-aluminium (NCA) accounting for close to 75% of market EV sales over the same period. However, non- nickel lithium battery chemistries have remained on the rise in 2023, with lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) accounting for 25% of the market and growing more than 50% year-on-year over in the year to August.
This trend is being driven by the Chinese market. With electric vehicle batteries making up about a third of the cost of an EV, Chinese consumers have shown a strong preference for lower-cost EVs, favouring LFP chemistries. For example, in 2022, almost 95% of LFP batteries produced globally for light duty vehicles were used to produce vehicles in China. Demand for non-nickel batteries such as LFP grew in 2023, but short-term growth has been revised down due to softer-than-expected EV sales. EV-related nickel demand is expected to be the main driver of nickel consumption from 2025 onwards, with nickel demand growth expected to remain the strongest out of the base metals, (Resources and Energy Quarterly | December 2023; p123).
13.5 Australia
Export earnings to be impacted by falling nickel prices
Stronger production and export volumes are expected over the outlook period, though this is initially expected to be outweighed by falling global prices. Export earnings are expected to fall to $3.9 billion in 2023–24, before increasing to $4.3 billion 2024–25. Export volumes are forecast to rise from 161,000 tonnes in 2022–23 to 172,000 in 2023–24 (7.1% growth) and 195,000 in 2024–25 (14% growth).
Australian production to grow over the outlook period
Following flat growth in 2022–23, Australian mined nickel production is forecast to grow to 159,000 tonnes in 2023–24 and 186,000 tonnes in 2024–25 (both figures have been revised down from the September Resources and Energy Quarterly). Contributing to this increase in mine production will be IGO’s Cosmos project, a further ramp up at Kambalda (Wyloo Metals) and a restart of Black Swan (Poseidon Nickel). Australian refined nickel production (including refined and intermediate products) is expected to grow from 134,000 tonnes in 2022–23 to 151,000 tonnes in 2024–25. This growth in output is expected to be driven by a ramp up in production at BHP’s Nickel West operations.
Exploration expenditure remains near decade highs
Nickel and cobalt exploration expenditure for the September quarter 2023 was around $88 million. This was 5.7% higher/lower than the previous quarter, and 11% higher than the comparable period in 2022. Exploration for the 12 months to September 2023 was $341 million, and continues a general upward trend seen since 2016.
Revisions to the outlook
Compared to the September 2023 Resources and Energy Quarterly, nickel exports earnings have been revised down by $0.4 billion in 2023–24. This is a result of slight downward revision to price forecasts for the period, (Resources and Energy Quarterly | December 2023; p126).
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
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Thanks for a comprehensive post on Nickel @rcw1. I think I understand it, but will save your post and digest it slowly and repeatedly.
I just thought I'd post a 25 year chart of Nickel from Trading Economics which gives me an idea of what heights and lows that N can reach. The price now appears to be a pivot point.
gg
