Nickel is back!

[Sean K]

Second week of rioting and unrest in New Caledonia


It has also led to a sharp spike in the price of nickel, which has reached its highest level in nine months.

New Caledonia possesses an estimated 25 per cent of the world’s nickel resources and accounts for 6 per cent of global production of the metal, giving the territory a level of influence on industry that belies its size. “Anything that happens in New Caledonia is of interest to the nickel industry,” says Adrian Gardner, principal analyst for nickel markets at energy research firm Wood Mackenzie.

While New Caledonian nickel mines have been operational since 1888, their level of importance to France in particular has gone up in recent years...

New Caledonia’s two major nickel-processing facilities – known as Doniambo and Koniambo – account for nearly a quarter of the global supply used in ferronickel, an alloy that is one of the key materials used in stainless steel production.

“If you suddenly withdraw a quarter of the nickel required by the stainless steel industry just to stay the same, then you’ve got a mini-panic on your hands,” says Gardner. “So that is the real pressure point that New Caledonia has in terms of global nickel . "

But it could be a short term thing. The worst thing is Indonesia not really caring about their environment, or China caring about emissions. Whilst (is that the correct English) Indonesia and China don't give a crap, sulphide nickel is in the toilet. Some punters think this dynamic must change due to our need to reduce emissions, but I'm beginning to think it's a load of crap.

 

[Captain_Chaza]

Elon Musk once said the Lithium Ion Battery should be called The Nickle Ion Battery
as he went about securing all the Indonesian Nickle he could

 

[Sean K]

BHP seems to have been a bit slow in capitulating here.

Perhaps the thing they got wrong was the general belief that the EV and battery industry as a whole was going to choose 'clean' nickel over the dirty Indonesia laterite crap that China is happy to use. Indonesia has certainly crapped on the market.

I wonder if the sulphide premium will ever eventuate or the market has just misjudged that battery makers will take the cheapest product instead of the greenest.

Maybe it's a turn around story as some stage.

 

[divs4ever]

well i remember an article several years back , about a ( US ) uni project that created a spray on battery ( looked like a slow release capacitance to me , but i am no engineer ) , and despite being in early stage research looked like a game changer to me

so have always been hesitant about 'battery tech ' through the hype bubble ( but still got badly mauled with RFX and PAN )

and oddly BHP has been trying to decide what to do with Nickel West for years even before Mincor was taken over , maybe BHP should spend a few bucks and clean the windscreen )

i hold BHP

but nope i will wait for sub $20 BHP before considering increasing my holding

it is selling/closing assets and not showing clear paths to near term growth ( growth always seems to be 5 years away )

BTW expect write-downs over the OZL acquisition

 

[JohnDe]

BHP seems to have been a bit slow in capitulating here.

Perhaps the thing they got wrong was the general belief that the EV and battery industry as a whole was going to choose 'clean' nickel over the dirty Indonesia laterite crap that China is happy to use. Indonesia has certainly crapped on the market.

I wonder if the sulphide premium will ever eventuate or the market has just misjudged that battery makers will take the cheapest product instead of the greenest.

Maybe it's a turn around story as some stage.

View attachment 180497

RIP Australian nickel.


well, for the foreseeable future anyway. BHP mentioned that they are mothballing their plant until the 2030's.

 

[UMike]

well i remember an article several years back , about a ( US ) uni project that created a spray on battery ( looked like a slow release capacitance to me , but i am no engineer ) , and despite being in early stage research looked like a game changer to me

so have always been hesitant about 'battery tech ' through the hype bubble ( but still got badly mauled with RFX and PAN )

and oddly BHP has been trying to decide what to do with Nickel West for years even before Mincor was taken over , maybe BHP should spend a few bucks and clean the windscreen )

i hold BHP

but nope i will wait for sub $20 BHP before considering increasing my holding

it is selling/closing assets and not showing clear paths to near term growth ( growth always seems to be 5 years away )

BTW expect write-downs over the OZL acquisition

If you are considering a more likely a 50% drop than any gain why not sell it now?

 

[divs4ever]

If you are considering a more likely a 50% drop than any gain why not sell it now?

RFX and PAN holdings are already less than brokerage costs ( so are all but crystallized tax write-offs )

other battery linked holdings such as MIN are still in ridiculous profit ( only profits at risk ) while i want to add IGO in future weakness

and WES is WES i doubt low lithium prices will may a big difference

however i am watching two vanadium battery plays ( i hold neither ) a big drop might finally tempt me to dip a toe in ( i like shopping in knee-deep blood )

 

[The Triangle]

https://www.mining.com/indonesian-onslaught-wipes-out-australias-nickel-industry/

Indonesia should not be blamed for the collapse of Australian nickel. Australia and Australians should be blamed for the collapse of Australian nickel. The obsession with gender diversity and bringing on lower experienced people, the extremely high wages being paid, flying everyone around business class everywhere, getting your mates to jack up all the rates on contracts so they can take you out to Optus stadium, short-term thinking by executives and shareholders to maximize quarter on quarter share prices.

The Australian nickel industry has done nothing to help itself. It's not Indonesia's fault.

 

[divs4ever]

https://www.mining.com/indonesian-onslaught-wipes-out-australias-nickel-industry/

Indonesia should not be blamed for the collapse of Australian nickel. Australia and Australians should be blamed for the collapse of Australian nickel. The obsession with gender diversity and bringing on lower experienced people, the extremely high wages being paid, flying everyone around business class everywhere, getting your mates to jack up all the rates on contracts so they can take you out to Optus stadium, short-term thinking by executives and shareholders to maximize quarter on quarter share prices.

The Australian nickel industry has done nothing to help itself. It's not Indonesia's fault.

well Indonesia was plenty of lower grade coal , iron ore ( of less than premium quality )and cheap abundant workforce and all relatively in a condensed area , why wouldn't any sensible industry value-add

 

[Dona Ferentes]

for those liking pictures and grabs .... 17mins

How China Took Over Indonesia’s Nickel Industry T…:

 

[sptrawler]

well Indonesia was plenty of lower grade coal , iron ore ( of less than premium quality )and cheap abundant workforce and all relatively in a condensed area , why wouldn't any sensible industry value-add

We used to do it, before we outsourced our value adding.

 

[sptrawler]

for those liking pictures and grabs .... 17mins

How China Took Over Indonesia’s Nickel Industry T…:

That's what China does, we used to call it dumping, now they call it giving us a thrashing. Lol

 

[Dona Ferentes]

That's what China does, we used to call it dumping, now they call it giving us a thrash

aka hegemonic behaviour.

 

[sptrawler]

aka hegemonic behaviour.

Yes I think this is only the beginning, they will leverage into all their critical minerals, meanwhile we are locked in to buying all their manufactured critical infrastructure, our smugness will keep us warm. Lol

 

[sptrawler]

Yes I think this is only the beginning, they will leverage into all their critical minerals, meanwhile we are locked in to buying all their manufactured critical infrastructure, our smugness will keep us warm. Lol

As I said quite a while back nickel is first, now it's lithium to the sword, funny how it's so predictable.
Alumina and iron ore maybe next? Certainly hope not, or we will have the recession we need, whether the Govt want it or not.

Lithium crash to cost 300 jobs at miner in WA

The world’s largest lithium producer will slash production of the battery ingredient in WA, prompting the federal government to consider bringing forward planned assistance.

www.watoday.com.au

A crash in lithium prices has pushed US miner Albemarle to halve production and stop expansion at its $2 billion lithium hydroxide plant in south-west Western Australia, shed 300 workers and write down the asset’s value by about $1.5 billion.

The move by the $US11 billion ($16.8 billion) company to close one of two operating trains at Kemerton, near Bunbury, south of Perth, and halt construction work on a third train is another blow to minerals processing in the mining state.

In July, BHP closed its WA nickel operation for at least three years, shedding 3000 positions. Frontline workers will be offered employment elsewhere at BHP. Alcoa this year closed its ageing alumina refinery in Kwinana, south of Perth, with about 750 jobs lost.

The price Albemarle – the world’s largest lithium producer – is receiving for its global production has been more than halved in less than a year, from about $US20 per kilogram of lithium carbonate equivalent in the second half of 2023 to between $US12 and $US15.

 

[frugal.rock]

Going up too fast?