My trading strategy blows goats... should I change?

[ivant]

this is my trade i did tommmorow



DEAL Closing trades 21/04/09 B6UXM6AB Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3395.5 A$ +33 369999.5 A$600,000000000000000 and a bit


get my point?

could always do a screenshot i spose and shut that beemsta fella up once and for all


but hey if ya really did turn 1500 into 550k in 12 mnths , i tip my hat to ya and have a great day

ha! all 4 screens? this is the first page of one of the accounts. i think its the second set of numbers.

 

[ivant]

oh and of course if you want to be really picky, you could start calculating all those numbers, ie exit - entry and times that by 5. and if you want to be even more picky, i did say i close out my last trade at 3750, when in actual fact it was 3700, so i did make a mistake there.

 

[ivant]

this isnt proof of anything actually but hey good luck to ya ..........hang on i,ll just post a result too


DEAL Closing trades 33/12/08 BSWQ78AC Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3500 A$ +5 3791.5 A$77777777777777,287.50


yes i done did real good there

oh and just so that you know, 3791.5-3500 = 291.5*5*5 = 7,287.50 you are a few trillion off

 

[nunthewiser]

by the way m8 .i understand where u coming from ie , being so young and going for sheet or bust .......... do agree with TH a lil here and reckon u should put some of that cash aside now that you made yourself a nice lil capital base to work with

but hey if you dont and continue this way ,,,, hell who is to say it shouldnt be done . your cash .your choice . just hope you continue winning and turn into a gigazillionaire by the time ya 25

good luck with it champ

 

[nunthewiser]

oh and just so that you know, 3791.5-3500 = 291.5*5*5 = 7,287.50 you are a few trillion off

whats a few trillion in a forum hey ?

 

[Cartman]

Since the great men TH and MRC & Co AND sanity-debated Cartman all seem to accept the trading claims, all I can say is.

I resemble that remark !!

Ivan, you are one BIG SWINGING DICK. (This is not a personal attack http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=big swinging dick)

Hey "Ive" ----- personally it doesnt worry me whether you made a squillion or not, and if you have, brilliant, ---- i gotta be honest; i'm still a "bit" skeptical though , sorry mate, but with the sort of claims you have made you gotta expect that -- but that doesnt mean i dont like your style !!

what scares me the most (or in the case that your claims are true, what interests me the most) is that i have a few of your habits (except the one where you risk 100% on a trade ie scaling into positions around the top/bottom of a perceived reversal etc ----

TH has shown us all that he can turn 2 grand into 20 grand when he gets in the zone (and thats on his "play" account lol ), so your claims from a monetary % are actually believable --

I'm seriously not trying to rain on your parade on a personal level, but the average punter doesnt need to be given any info that could be considered dodgy, cause it could end up costing them their shirt if you get my drift --- and believe me i know what its like to lose my shirt --- and i dont look good in underwear !!!

I havent been through many of the trades you pasted up (im not that pedantic) , but this one i'm having a little trouble with

DEAL Closing trades 23/12/08 BSWQ77AC Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3500 A$ +5 3791.5 A$7,287.50


opened long at 3500 (whatever date) and closed at 3791.50 on the 23/12/08 correct ??

M8, if i'm missing something, i apologise, but as i say, you have to accept skepticicity (i made that up ) when making big claims

Cheers.

 

[nunthewiser]

is that i have a few of your habits (except the one where you risk 100% on a trade ie scaling into positions around the top/bottom of a perceived reversal etc ----

.

UH OH

hope that does not make my sanity doubtable also as this is a method i often use lol not the 100% but the scaling in on perceieved reversal points

 

[DB008]

I noticed that you were asking about brokers before Ivant.


The best one that l have come across so far is Tradestation.

http://www.tradestation.com/brokerage/overview.shtm

Platform looks good and services also.

If it only did shares (and more) on the ASX, l would be in.

 

[ivant]

UH OH

hope that does not make my sanity doubtable also as this is a method i often use lol not the 100% but the scaling in on perceieved reversal points

its an interesting point actually. i add to losses and heavily. ill pick a few points and rate them as to how likely i think they will be. ill enter lightly at the first likely reversal point, and then add more and more at the next ones.

I resemble that remark !!





Hey "Ive" ----- personally it doesnt worry me whether you made a squillion or not, and if you have, brilliant, ---- i gotta be honest; i'm still a "bit" skeptical though , sorry mate, but with the sort of claims you have made you gotta expect that -- but that doesnt mean i dont like your style !!

what scares me the most (or in the case that your claims are true, what interests me the most) is that i have a few of your habits (except the one where you risk 100% on a trade ie scaling into positions around the top/bottom of a perceived reversal etc ----

TH has shown us all that he can turn 2 grand into 20 grand when he gets in the zone (and thats on his "play" account lol ), so your claims from a monetary % are actually believable --

I'm seriously not trying to rain on your parade on a personal level, but the average punter doesnt need to be given any info that could be considered dodgy, cause it could end up costing them their shirt if you get my drift --- and believe me i know what its like to lose my shirt --- and i dont look good in underwear !!!

I havent been through many of the trades you pasted up (im not that pedantic) , but this one i'm having a little trouble with

DEAL Closing trades 23/12/08 BSWQ77AC Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3500 A$ +5 3791.5 A$7,287.50


opened long at 3500 (whatever date) and closed at 3791.50 on the 23/12/08 correct ??

M8, if i'm missing something, i apologise, but as i say, you have to accept skepticicity (i made that up ) when making big claims

Cheers.

yea i entered in at 3500 (which i think was an automatic entry through an order to open) and closed on the 23/12. i know what you are thinking, that point doesnt exist on the chart. do you remember that crazy last 3 minutes of trade, when the market was up a lot? i closed that out on my phone. i was happy. got back home, they reversed my trade due to irregular trades. thats that -5000+ on that day. ig markets deleted that spike and reversed my trade. they actually ended up giving me the 5k back later, but thats besides the point. well noted though my friend

hehe ive been in my underwear a few times i know what its like too. actually when in 2007 i borrowed 20k from the bank to invest in stocks. one of the stocks was CENTRO. i didnt even have underwear after they went into a trading halt the day i wanted to sell. that hurt. although, out of interest which info do you mean?

whats a few trillion in a forum hey ?

haha only a few extra keystrokes.

by the way m8 .i understand where u coming from ie , being so young and going for sheet or bust .......... do agree with TH a lil here and reckon u should put some of that cash aside now that you made yourself a nice lil capital base to work with

but hey if you dont and continue this way ,,,, hell who is to say it shouldnt be done . your cash .your choice . just hope you continue winning and turn into a gigazillionaire by the time ya 25

good luck with it champ

hahaha gigzillionaire? thats a been insane. that would be funny just to laugh at buffett im definitely cutting down on risk, or more so, not increasing the amount of positions as much as my capital base is. ive had too many close calls and there is no way im trading at 100% anymore. its still crazy, but i try not risk more than 50%. the only thing though is that i cant definitely say where i stop out, because i look at particular support and resistance levels and wait for a confirmation of a move against what i wanted before i cut.

 

[ivant]

I noticed that you were asking about brokers before Ivant.


The best one that l have come across so far is Tradestation.

http://www.tradestation.com/brokerage/overview.shtm

Platform looks good and services also.

If it only did shares (and more) on the ASX, l would be in.

thanks a lot for that i will be checking them out in detail today. i cant find a demo anywhere, but im sure they have something :0 thanks again

 

[ivant]

Finding a good broker is harder than finding a good girlfriend, each has its features.

 

[Cartman]

UH OH

hope that does not make my sanity doubtable also lol

haha ---- its too late for you to start worrying about that Nun

i know what you are thinking, that point doesnt exist on the chart. do you remember that crazy last 3 minutes of trade, ....... well noted though my friend

all good ---

just needed to confirm the reason for the anomaly, cause the numbers were obviously conflicting with the chart ----- that was the info i was after .... now cleared up

hehe ive been in my underwear a few times i know what its like too.

i didnt even have underwear after they went into a trading halt the day i wanted to sell.

no underwear at all :22_yikes: ----- bummer :arsch:

 

[ivant]

all good ---

just needed to confirm the reason for the anomaly, cause the numbers were obviously conflicting with the chart ----- that was the info i was after .... now cleared up



no underwear at all :22_yikes: ----- bummer :arsch:

actually that also explains the drawdown ive been asked about before.. it wasnt a drawdown it was them reversing my trade. but yea that was one whacked day... i think i lost my voice. my dad was with me in the car and though i have completely lost my sanity. he knew im insane as is, just not THAT bad.. haha. yea Centro too all i had at the time haha.

 

[Ardyne]

Nice screenshot ivant. Send that off to the mag "Smart investor" and they'd use that as a centerfold spread.

Theres a snippit of your running profit and loss. Its a bit cut off. Maybe you've never closed a losing trade and its actually running at A$ -1,140,000.00

 

[ivant]

Nice screenshot ivant. Send that off to the mag "Smart investor" and they'd use that as a centerfold spread.

Theres a snippit of your running profit and loss. Its a bit cut off. Maybe you've never closed a losing trade and its actually running at A$ -1,140,000.00

lmao!! haha it was actually a few points down. back in positives now. and you added a few zeros although smart investor had stuff like that, i swear!!

 

[alwaysLearning]

oh my friend, i think mr livermoore would laugh at my MM haha. what i said and showed is only numbers. whats that famous phrase, that you find on all hedge funds and ponzi schemes: past results are not indicative of future returns? i dont know anywhere near as much about the markets as id hope, and i am nowhere near good enough to pick perfect bottoms. in that trade i was going long right about where the market started dropping. what saved me was position sizing. van tharps favourite thing lets hope the shorts come through in the next few weeks. what are your targets? think we can get a retest in this move or is it seeming it will be closer to october?

Man, got to love Jesse Livermore though, what a legend he was

 

[alwaysLearning]

I resemble that remark !!





Hey "Ive" ----- personally it doesnt worry me whether you made a squillion or not, and if you have, brilliant, ---- i gotta be honest; i'm still a "bit" skeptical though , sorry mate, but with the sort of claims you have made you gotta expect that -- but that doesnt mean i dont like your style !!

what scares me the most (or in the case that your claims are true, what interests me the most) is that i have a few of your habits (except the one where you risk 100% on a trade ie scaling into positions around the top/bottom of a perceived reversal etc ----

TH has shown us all that he can turn 2 grand into 20 grand when he gets in the zone (and thats on his "play" account lol ), so your claims from a monetary % are actually believable --

I'm seriously not trying to rain on your parade on a personal level, but the average punter doesnt need to be given any info that could be considered dodgy, cause it could end up costing them their shirt if you get my drift --- and believe me i know what its like to lose my shirt --- and i dont look good in underwear !!!

I havent been through many of the trades you pasted up (im not that pedantic) , but this one i'm having a little trouble with

DEAL Closing trades 23/12/08 BSWQ77AC Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3500 A$ +5 3791.5 A$7,287.50


opened long at 3500 (whatever date) and closed at 3791.50 on the 23/12/08 correct ??

M8, if i'm missing something, i apologise, but as i say, you have to accept skepticicity (i made that up ) when making big claims

Cheers.

I know what you mean about being critical and all. But then, there is that one guy on forex factory who turned $1000 into $126000 within 1 week and yep, he posted all trades, and actually he accidently included his account number, lol. (it was a pdf report thing from fxcm) So yeah, crazy returns are possible if you're willing to take the risks.

Doesn't mean that it is safe to take such huge risks though. The bloke on forex factory who made that huge amount of money said that he would never have done that with his normal account but just for ****s and giggles did it on a $1000 account. i can find the thread on forex factory if you like?

 

[Mr J]

Re: My trading strategy blows goats...should i change?

Having a exit only on a trailing stop loss policy seems to be the go.

Different stop strategies for different strategies.

Not really

You buy 100 $5 shares ($500)
They go to $10 each ($1000)

You sell off 50 shares @ $10 each and get your $500 back
You now have 50 shares and your initial capital back to trade aonther lot of shares

You are not understanding that you are lowering your risk. Even though the potential profit is smaller, your risk is 0. If the shares fall back to $5 you get 10*50 + 5*50 = $750. If you are holding the whole lot and they fall back to $5 you get 100*50 = $500. (of course they would't go all the way back because you'd be using a stop... but you are still in front if you sell half your position).

Think about it like this. Would you argue pyramiding positions is bad? By your argument you'd say it's not good because the potential profit is larger if you don't pyramid and instead you just buy the whole position in one lot. But with pyramiding the risk is alot lower.

Ideally, you want to be trading with the lowest risk for the highest reward. If you sell half your position, you achive that.

Brad

It still doesn't become a risk-free trade. Whatever we have in play is ours to lose (despite the fact it could be argued that it's not ours until we've exited). There's also the opportunity cost of that trade (I recognise that taking money off the table lowers this). My only point here is that it's not a risk-free trade.

Pyramiding, well it's trading profit for consistency. I don't know whether or not it is more effective, I suppose that depends on the trading method and the skill of the trader. Pyramiding doesn't bring the highest reward, although it may bring a better R:R ratio (I assume that's what you meant).

I really don't agree with selling half the position just for the sake of reducing risk. As far as I'm concerned, the only reason to exit a trade is if further profitability of the trade is in reasonable doubt. Taking half off just for the sake of reducing risk can leave a lot of money on the table, and we should be trying to get everything we can.

im still young and aggressive so i trade big. i can afford being wiped out a few more times. meanwhile im up 250 fold for the year. but as i said i risk a lot!

You're ignoring the opportunity cost of being wiped out and having to rebuild. I doubt it is worth it to take shots, unless your capital is so small that a responsible level of trading is unsustainable. On the other hand, a bankroll is as large as all of the money you're willing to lose, including future income you would devote to trading.

 

[ivant]

livermore was a legend indeed.

the opportunity cost of being wiped out? i read it like this, i have 2 ways to go about it.

1. finish my commerce degree (which i will regardless) and then get a stable job
2. trade off my face now, and lower the risk as i get older (which i do anyway)

considering im doing ok at the later, i dont see why i should stop. sure i do trade aggressively, but i have a huge risk tolerance. once again, thanks centro. having said what i risk on a trade, i usually go in only when odds favour the return. in fact i try to have a 90% chance of winning a trade.. so overall the risk is a little hard to calculate...

 

[prawn_86]

in fact i try to have a 90% chance of winning a trade.. so overall the risk is a little hard to calculate...

What is your actual win rate of all your past trades?