My trading strategy blows goats... should I change?

[Aussiest]

in fact i try to have a 90% chance of winning a trade.. so overall the risk is a little hard to calculate...

That is a good strategy, be almost certain before you take the trade.

If i were you, i would seriously consider preserving most of that capital. That could be a once in a lifetime opportunity.

Perhaps you could open two accounts? One for sensible trading and the other for speculation?

 

[Mr J]

livermore was a legend indeed.

the opportunity cost of being wiped out? i read it like this, i have 2 ways to go about it.

1. finish my commerce degree (which i will regardless) and then get a stable job
2. trade off my face now, and lower the risk as i get older (which i do anyway)

considering im doing ok at the later, i dont see why i should stop. sure i do trade aggressively, but i have a huge risk tolerance. once again, thanks centro. having said what i risk on a trade, i usually go in only when odds favour the return. in fact i try to have a 90% chance of winning a trade.. so overall the risk is a little hard to calculate...

Yes, the opportunity cost of being wiped out. It's not so relevant if you have another source of income (i.e. a job), but extremely important if you don't.

Having huge risk tolerance is irrelevant if you're overbetting. There's only so much you can risk before it becomes a liability. Aggressive is fine as long as it's not irresponsible.

How much do you risk per trade, on average? Highest amout at risk? As prawn_86 asked, what is your current winrate? What's your average return per trade?

 

[beamstas]

Can't believe people are actually buying this..



Claimed Increase account size 250 fold in a year

Traded parents SMSF as a young teenager

Trying to trade at 90% win rate (see NR's beginner cycle)

Risking more than your account size - You claim to only trade with trades that will win 90% of the time (btw my crystal ball is broken can i borrow yours? how do you work out if a trade is going to win before hand?) it is almost certain you will wipe your account out in 10 trades.

I can get my quantitative methods books out from last year at uni and work out some probabilities for you guys, to actually determine what kind of chance this black swan event would have (and i'd need a huge sheet of paper to plot it on a bell curve..) but it's really a waste of my time

 

[nunthewiser]

Can't believe people are actually buying this..

never said ANYWHERE i believed it ........ do wish him well and all the best tho

 

[alwaysLearning]

Can't believe people are actually buying this..



Claimed Increase account size 250 fold in a year

Traded parents SMSF as a young teenager

Trying to trade at 90% win rate (see NR's beginner cycle)

Risking more than your account size - You claim to only trade with trades that will win 90% of the time (btw my crystal ball is broken can i borrow yours? how do you work out if a trade is going to win before hand?) it is almost certain you will wipe your account out in 10 trades.

I can get my quantitative methods books out from last year at uni and work out some probabilities for you guys, to actually determine what kind of chance this black swan event would have (and i'd need a huge sheet of paper to plot it on a bell curve..) but it's really a waste of my time

Check this thread out
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=56670

 

[Family_Guy]

I would be extremely happy to pay and sit over your shoulder Ivan and watch and learn how to pull this kinda profit. If you could 90% guarantee that i could turn $1500 into just a small profit, say, $15000 in perhaps a month or so trading the way you do, hell, you can have my $15k tax free in $10 notes.....or $20's, up to you.

...............i'm serious, always keen to learn.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Traded parents SMSF as a young teenager

Trying to trade at 90% win rate (see NR's beginner cycle)

would like to see the actual definition of trading a SMSF. Which is 'carrying on a business" and not allowed in a super fund .

Check this thread out
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=56670

Oh Damn!! that beats my 50,000 from 1000 in a week.

Right where are the bucket shop account login details again. Me got some swingin to do

 

[beamstas]

I have started paper trading when i was 13. traded my parents SMSF, didnt do too badly opened an account on my 18th bday. then went to futures 07 and tried everything under the planet. metastock was working overtime at that point when i tried to get a strategy. it was in late 07 i found something that worked ok, in terms of oversold/overbought indicators (that are about to die off, as soon as we hit a bull).

would like to see the actual definition of trading a SMSF. Which is 'carrying on a business" and not allowed in a super fund .

Not my words TH

Brad

 

[alwaysLearning]

Oh Damn!! that beats my 50,000 from 1000 in a week.

Right where are the bucket shop account login details again. Me got some swingin to do

I'm sure you could probably do it too.

The guy who did that on forex factory was using crazy leverage though and admitted also that when he did that, there are only about 4 times every year that the market does what it did, and he capitalised on it.

So it's a pretty rare thing but still, just goes to show what can happen lol.

if you are a member of forex factory you can download his pdf which outlines every single trade he took:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1720382&postcount=68

 

[skc]

Can't believe people are actually buying this..

I can get my quantitative methods books out from last year at uni and work out some probabilities for you guys, to actually determine what kind of chance this black swan event would have (and i'd need a huge sheet of paper to plot it on a bell curve..) but it's really a waste of my time

Brad, I am skeptical. But no more skeptical than if someone claims that he/she has won the lotto here. The chance of winning is way way on the end of the bell curve, but the funny thing is it does happen to people at times.

 

[ivant]

if i told you what my win rate is from this year you will laugh.

ok i dont have time to prove myself anymore. those who believe me, great, those who dont, your choice. the only thing i have to say to you is that is the major limitation of people. some people claim success and you say BS, those who dont will ask how, and achieve something.

here is what i will tell you, the short contracts i had have been closed out, and now i have a light position betting on a small upswing here, maybe 100 points or so. i have 3 full contracts.

i will rephrase what i said about trading SMSF, i was investing the funds, rather than trade them, because that too is illegal.

oh and TH, well done, thats a fair return, 50k from 1k in one week. lol. thats a lot more than what people dont believe i have done.

just to kill your argument beamstas, i have a major in quantitative statistics among others. go for your life. thats exactly why you will probably end up a lecturer in your life, if you are lucky. how do you work out if a trade will win? probabilities you speak of. after the australian market drops 1000 points and oversold on every indicator under the moon, whats the chance it goes up? multiply that on a much larger scale and you will still not have the faintest idea of how i trade. learn to think. then learn to trade. then learn to accept the unacceptable. and maybe you will achieve something in your life.

 

[beamstas]

i have a major in quantitative statistics among others. go for your life. thats exactly why you will probably end up a lecturer in your life, if you are lucky. how do you work out if a trade will win? probabilities you speak of. after the australian market drops 1000 points and oversold on every indicator under the moon, whats the chance it goes up? multiply that on a much larger scale and you will still not have the faintest idea of how i trade. learn to think. then learn to trade. then learn to accept the unacceptable. and maybe you will achieve something in your life.

So why would you only aim for a 90% hit rate if you know what a trade is doing before hand? If you know what the markets going to do why do you not have a 100% hit rate

I can tell you why

Because no matter how many indicators you use, the market is either going to be up tomorrow, or it is going to be down.

All you can do is offer yourself the largest reward from the smallest risk in every scenario.

Because no one knows what the market is going to do tomorrow.

All you posted was a bunch of SPI trades
None of them showed an account moving from $1500 to $550,000. Don't come here making bull**** claims on a legitimate thread. You know what? People are going to read this and think they can do it. They can't.

I can accept that you have made profitable trades. What that quote? Even fools can be right sometimes.

Brad

 

[Trembling Hand]

oh and TH, well done, thats a fair return, 50k from 1k in one week. lol. thats a lot more than what people dont believe i have done.

Yes mate But I sent statements to anyone who cares to see them. Was a very simple exercise. Took about 1 min to blank out the name and acc number. Saved me looking like a fool and having to always come back to the question of was it BS.

 

[mazzatelli1000]

just to kill your argument beamstas, i have a major in quantitative statistics among others. go for your life. thats exactly why you will probably end up a lecturer in your life, if you are lucky. how do you work out if a trade will win? probabilities you speak of. after the australian market drops 1000 points and oversold on every indicator under the moon, whats the chance it goes up? multiply that on a much larger scale and you will still not have the faintest idea of how i trade. learn to think. then learn to trade. then learn to accept the unacceptable. and maybe you will achieve something in your life.

For anyone who has read "Fooled by Randomness" this situation reminds me of Carlos and John.
LOL

 

[nomore4s]

What a thread.

We have a trader(and I use that term lightly) saying he has turned $1500 into over $350k with a 90% win rate and wonders why no one believes him. To me some of your posts don't add up but I'm not going to bother arguing with you about it.

Why not just do what TH suggests and send some statements to a mod and settle this once and for all?

Regardless of whether you are telling the truth or not, IMO you are nothing more then a gambler.
You risk huge amounts of money with little or no risk and money management.
You continually add to losing bets till they become winning bets - hence the high win rate.
For all your bluster your knowledge in some areas is very lacking.

IMO again, it's just a matter of time before you blow up and lose the lot and probably more as you try to chase it all back - like a true gambling addict. These market conditions will not last forever and my bet is when they change so will your account size.

If you have done what you say - well done. And do what TH said in an earlier post - reduce your size & learn about the markets, use this opportunity to set yourself up for life. To give it all back now would be very very stupid.

 

[Agentm]

i dont think i have read a thread more closely than this one for a long time..

from someones predisposition to blow goats to a legend in ones owns imagination,

gold..

brilliant writing btw to all..

adding to my favorites

 

[nomore4s]

from someones predisposition to blow goats to a legend in ones owns imagination

lmao

 

[prawn_86]

**puts mod hat on**

Hi all,

Please note that i have asked Ivant to provide broker statements, either to a mod or in public. As we all know ASF is about facts, hence the reason for my asking.

There are also some inconsistencies appearing with his story which prompted me to ask him.

Until then please remember that any ludicrous claims must be backed up in order to keep ASF the best stock forum out there

So lets try and get this thread back on track until we hear from Ivant...

 

[Agentm]

but seriously.. right here everyone needs to give a standing ovation to all..

this is one of the best threads this forum has had in a long time..

 

[Trembling Hand]

So lets try and get this thread back on track until we hear from Ivant...

Man this ones so far off track we will be finding wild goats soon