My trading strategy blows goats... should I change?

[skc]

Lol i meant for the financial year. 1500 in july, over 550k at this rate...

futures trading spi 200 and crude. i trade in 20-40 lots depending on how confident i am on the SPI, and usually about 5-10 barrels in crude, depending on how confident i am. i trade different strategies though.

i take usually around about 200-250 per trade, but that all depends on the trade. eg i started going long lightly in the 3500 a few months ago, and had most of my positions enter at 3200. i sold out at 3750. so most of my contracts made around about 400-500 points.

most of my money came in october and november last year and made close to nothing between december and feb.

For a guy who trades 20-40 lots can you explain why you seem awefully interested in micro lots offered by Go Markets!?

wow thats pretty good. what is their commission? I'm completely moving to futures now, but it was interesting to see someone offer less than a 2 point spread. I was considering them as a broker for futures actually. IB seems better for me, but I am still in the research stage.

What are they like? Good feed? Platform seems ok from the demo.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=14953

 

[Cartman]

i havent simulated since i turned 17.

you dont have to believe me man. really.. you dont. and im not going to go through the effort of proving myself. this isnt the point of a) this post b) this forum.

ivant, M8, i got roasted for making a couple of grand on an FX account ---- what chance do you think you've got of making people believe your claims lol

seriously though --- if you started with $1500, how the heck did you ever get up to holding between 20-40 contracts? Which provider gives that kind of leverage ?? --- you would have had to risk the lot on every trade in the beginning, and never have a losing trade for about a squillion trades --- or am i missing something?

it appears SKC beat me to it lol ----

 

[beamstas]

i havent simulated since i turned 17.

you dont have to believe me man. really.. you dont. and im not going to go through the effort of proving myself. this isnt the point of a) this post b) this forum.

as i understand it, its a point of gathering where beginners seek help, and the more experienced get it. i think that people should concentrate on their trading first.

for your information ill be happy with 5-6 fold for next year.

So you'll be happy with 500% a year gain
And this year you have gained 25,000%

Yeah.. Right..

Mate come back here when you've actually made a trade and realise that those numbers just arn't realistic

If you are going to come here and make stuff up like being up 250 fold for the year, at least make the effort to make things believable

"Im young so i can risk alot"
Age makes no difference. Trading like you are saying will wipe you out in a matter of minutes.. if you are lucky hours

Brad

 

[skc]

ivant, M8, i got roasted for making a couple of grand on an FX account ---- what chance do you think you've got of making people believe your claims lol

seriously though --- if you started with $1500, how the heck did you ever get up to holding between 20-40 contracts? Which provider gives that kind of leverage ?? --- you would have had to risk the lot on every trade in the beginning, and never have a losing trade for about a squillion trades --- or am i missing something?

it appears SKC beat me to it lol ----

Cartman, you are so narrow minded! Let me show you how it can be done.

In this financial year, the SPI has gone from ~5000 down to 3200 back up to 3800. That's a range total of 2500 points. Starting with $1500, ivant can trade 1 $5 mini lot on IG markets. For every additional lot he wishes to trade, he needs to make $1000 profit.

From 1 lot to 2 lots, he only need to capture 200 points (within the 2500 points range).
From 2 lots to 3 lots, it takes another 100 points.
From 3 to 4, 66 points.
From 4 to 5, 50 points.
From 5 to 6, 40 points.
From 6 to 7, 33 points.
From 7 to 8, 25 points.

Follow this logic through and ivant can trade 40 contracts by compounding and capturing only ~1200 points of the full range.

Can you now see how EASILY this can be done? In fact, I am disappointed that he's only earned $550k.

 

[beamstas]

Can you now see how EASILY this can be done? In fact, I am disappointed that he's only earned $550k.

Yeah. If he was a good trader he would of picked every top and every bottom
He should of made over $1,100,000

Good traders don't make even one losing trade

 

[MRC & Co]

1500 in july, over 550k at this rate...

i take usually around about 200-250 per trade, but that all depends on the trade. eg i started going long lightly in the 3500 a few months ago, and had most of my positions enter at 3200. i sold out at 3750. so most of my contracts made around about 400-500 points.

Think skc post at the top of this page says the lot, then add in how you would start going long at 3500 and average down to 3200, with 20-40 lots and work out the money you would need in the account...........

 

[ivant]

wow, i cannot believe im the centre of attention on this now. in terms of making trades, read my blog, ive said what i traded before it occured.

i am sadly nowhere near good enough to pick perfect tops and bottoms, i was lucky enough to once sell just before market tanked, to the point. having said that i have missed way too many trades and have made very very bad misses. to the extent that when my stake was smaller between end of 07 and middle of 08 i did get washed out a few times. i did start with ig markets and still am there, keeping just under 200k there (between 2 accounts). and you are correct, i risked over 100% at times. yes im not proud of that anymore, and thus the point of posting at the start in here telling you what kind of a return you can do if you risk your face off.

in terms of mini lots, i was interested in the spread. id love to cut down spread to 1 point, and a lot of mini lots equal full lots. plus i do apologise when i said 20-30 lots, i did mean up to 50 mini lots(1/5ths) spread over 2 accounts. which means up to 10 full contracts, although i do confess i have went over at times.

it would be nice if you guys did stop attacking me, as if i have made a crime and how about this, for past trades check out my blog, for the future, lets see how we go. im currently short the SPI 200 with 26 contracts in one account with an average entry of 3727 on which im down just a touch over 10k and on my second im shorting 18 with an average 3735. down on that 6.3k. if the market doesnt gap down, i may add a few more to the downside.

in terms of crude, i dont mention it in my blog, because its a relatively small trade that i do. i have nothing in at the moment and will start shorting around the 53 mark and going long around 40. if there is a trade i make at 53 i will close out at 49 and if there is a trade at 40 i will see then.

lastly, age does matter. the reason it does is because if i go bankrupt i can always work it right back. although now i guess i dont think so much anymore, it was the reasoning behind me risking over 100% on some trades.

on a side note, i am very amazed at how people responded to that actually. i will underline once more that the point of that post was to underscore the fact that you can make a lot of money (relative to initial investment) when risking a lot more than under a percent or five or whatever, and that it can work. having said that, i dont recommend doing so, and probably would recommend starting with a stake of more than 10k.

 

[ivant]

Think skc post at the top of this page says the lot, then add in how you would start going long at 3500 and average down to 3200, with 20-40 lots and work out the money you would need in the account...........

i didnt average it down, i said most of my positions entered around there..

oh and for this here we go.... straight from the history thing in IG markets for last 90days:

EAL Closing trades 08/04/09 CJRHVTAH US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract) MAY-09 5236 $ -2 4899 $3,370.00
DEAL Closing trades 08/04/09 CJW7HHAG US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract) MAY-09 5193 $ -1 4899 $1,470.00
DEAL Closing trades 02/04/09 CAF5ULAC Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3184.5 A$ +1 3699.5 A$2,575.00
DEAL Closing trades 02/04/09 CAKX5HAE Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3171.5 A$ +2 3699.5 A$5,280.00
DEAL Closing trades 02/04/09 B6UXM6AK Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3395.5 A$ +3 3699.5 A$4,560.00
DEAL Closing trades 02/04/09 CAF4ZGAK Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3184.5 A$ +1 3699.5 A$2,575.00
DEAL Closing trades 02/04/09 BX24ZVAE Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3495 A$ +3 3699.5 A$3,067.50
DEAL Closing trades 02/04/09 B9Q3G7AD Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3290 A$ +1 3699.5 A$2,047.50
DEAL Closing trades 02/04/09 B9Q3HSAD Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3285 A$ +1 3699.5 A$2,072.50
DEAL Closing trades 02/04/09 BWZ5TPAA Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3549 A$ +5 3699.5 A$3,762.50
DEAL Closing trades 02/04/09 CHMCQ6AJ US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract) MAY-09 5033 $ +1 5012 $-105.00
DEAL Closing trades 02/04/09 CHM9L6AB US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract) MAY-09 5030 $ +1 5007 $-115.00
DEAL Closing trades 02/04/09 CHQJ4CAJ US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract) MAY-09 4845 $ +2 5002 $1,570.00
DEAL Closing trades 30/03/09 CFVMTGAB US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract) MAY-09 5350 $ -1 5049 $1,505.00
DEAL Closing trades 30/03/09 CEHMJJAC US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract) MAY-09 4945 $ -1 5049 $-520.00
DEAL Closing trades 30/03/09 CEC34EAK US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract) MAY-09 4920 $ -1 5049 $-645.00
DEAL Closing trades 28/03/09 CFVPJLAH US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract) MAY-09 5350 $ -1 5195 $775.00
DEAL Closing trades 13/03/09 CC66LKAE US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract) APR-09 4271 $ +1 4628 $1,785.00
DEAL Closing trades 03/03/09 B9EU6NAJ US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract) APR-09 4373 $ -1 4171 $1,010.00
DEAL Closing trades 26/02/09 B6MTECAC US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract) APR-09 4100 $ +1 4210 $550.00
DEAL Closing trades 26/02/09 B6RQWQAC US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract) APR-09 4000 $ +1 4210 $1,050.00
DEAL Closing trades 26/02/09 B6RAXGAC US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract) APR-09 4050 $ +1 4210 $800.00
DEAL Closing trades 28/01/09 BYE2YFAG Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3410.5 A$ +2 3497 A$865.00
DEAL Closing trades 28/01/09 BYEYSBAC Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3410.5 A$ +5 3498 A$2,187.50
DEAL Closing trades 20/01/09 BX35SWAE Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3451 A$ +5 3523.5 A$1,812.50

then the next

DEAL Closing trades 16/04/09 CLNRWNAP US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract) MAY-09 5183 $ -2 4904 $2,790.00
DEAL Closing trades 08/04/09 CKC434AE US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract) MAY-09 5311 $ -1 4899 $2,060.00
DEAL Closing trades 02/04/09 CHTXQ5AF Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3556 A$ +3 3697.5 A$2,122.50
DEAL Closing trades 02/04/09 B9Q4DMAL Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3285 A$ +2 3697.5 A$4,125.00
DEAL Closing trades 02/04/09 BW8PQSAE Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3493.5 A$ +3 3698.5 A$3,075.00
DEAL Closing trades 02/04/09 BWWMQYAA Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3559.5 A$ +4 3698.5 A$2,780.00
DEAL Closing trades 02/04/09 B9Q4DMAL Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3285 A$ +3 3698.5 A$6,202.50
DEAL Closing trades 02/04/09 B6U3ABAE Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3397.5 A$ +4 3698.5 A$6,020.00
DEAL Closing trades 02/04/09 BVBUGCAF Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3680 A$ +2 3698.5 A$185.00
DEAL Closing trades 02/04/09 BVBTW2AC Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3685.5 A$ +6 3698.5 A$390.00
DEAL Closing trades 02/04/09 BVBXKAAM Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3681 A$ +2 3698.5 A$175.00
DEAL Closing trades 02/04/09 B6X5JDAA Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3388 A$ +1 3698.5 A$1,552.50
DEAL Closing trades 30/03/09 CFVHEUAB US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract) MAY-09 5340 $ -1 5120 $1,100.00
DEAL Closing trades 27/01/09 GRK252 Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3310 A$ +1 3420 A$550.00
DEAL Closing trades 27/01/09 GRK27M Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3310 A$ +5 3420 A$2,750.00
DEAL Closing trades 08/01/09 BTSCGWAA Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3699.5 A$ -10 3685.5 A$700.00
DEAL Closing trades 08/01/09 BTYN76AM Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3764 A$ -7 3685.5 A$2,747.50
DEAL Closing trades 01/01/09 BS6YMSAD US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract) MAR-09 3999 $ +2 4524 $5,250.00
DEAL Closing trades 01/01/09 BS6Z29AM US Light Crude ($5 Mini Contract) MAR-09 3972 $ +1 4522 $2,750.00
DEAL Closing trades 23/12/08 GQ54GD Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3791.5 A$ +5 3580 A$-5,287.50
DEAL Closing trades 23/12/08 BSWQ77AC Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3500 A$ +5 3791.5 A$7,287.50
DEAL Closing trades 22/12/08 BSHM3XAA Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3635.5 A$ -5 3554 A$2,037.50

is that enough for you children?

 

[ivant]

lastly looking at that ive obviously started going long in the 3680

 

[Trembling Hand]

There you go boys,

Big picture + big Balls = Big Profit.


You would be better concentrating on keeping it ivant. no need to blow MM now as you can swing decent size. by they way why the hell trade CFDs not the futs??

 

[ivant]

There you go boys,

Big picture + big Balls = Big Profit.


You would be better concentrating on keeping it ivant. no need to blow MM now as you can swing decent size. by they way why the hell trade CFDs not the futs??

actually thats what i ask myself for a while. im looking at a few brokers at the moment. im not sure if i should go with mf global, sonray, go markets or macquarie. the other one im looking at is IB. i dont know, ive been researching since feb. ive got an account with sonray, i dont know if i like them too much. i trade oil on there, and then lightly do it on ig as well (i like the mobile checking at night or when im not at home). for SPI though, the liquidity seems to be pretty low in the evening sessions. any clues?

in terms of keeping it, yea, thus id like to start cutting down on risk. in fact i trade very differently now as opposed to what i did when my account was very small. unfortunately balls shrink with age, and so do the returns. lol

 

[MRC & Co]

Congrats Ivant, no attack here, only questioning based on figures which would potentially superceed the greatest gain on a person account in one year ever recorded.

If you did it and with that kind of trading, then you are the next Mr Livermoore!

Like I said before though, I respect your knowledge and opinions on trading, I'm with you on the shorts too!

Good luck!

 

[ivant]

Congrats Ivant, no attack here, only questioning based on figures which would potentially superceed the greatest gain on a person account in one year ever recorded.

If you did it and with that kind of trading, then you are the next Mr Livermoore!

Like I said before though, I respect your knowledge and opinions on trading, I'm with you on the shorts too!

Good luck!

oh my friend, i think mr livermoore would laugh at my MM haha. what i said and showed is only numbers. whats that famous phrase, that you find on all hedge funds and ponzi schemes: past results are not indicative of future returns? i dont know anywhere near as much about the markets as id hope, and i am nowhere near good enough to pick perfect bottoms. in that trade i was going long right about where the market started dropping. what saved me was position sizing. van tharps favourite thing lets hope the shorts come through in the next few weeks. what are your targets? think we can get a retest in this move or is it seeming it will be closer to october?

 

[Aussiest]

actually thats what i ask myself for a while. im looking at a few brokers at the moment. im not sure if i should go with mf global, sonray, go markets or macquarie. the other one im looking at is IB. i dont know, ive been researching since feb. ive got an account with sonray, i dont know if i like them too much. i trade oil on there, and then lightly do it on ig as well (i like the mobile checking at night or when im not at home). for SPI though, the liquidity seems to be pretty low in the evening sessions. any clues?

in terms of keeping it, yea, thus id like to start cutting down on risk. in fact i trade very differently now as opposed to what i did when my account was very small. unfortunately balls shrink with age, and so do the returns. lol

Macquarie is good, i would recommend them. However, i only use them for shares.

You should save 400k and use 150k for trading. Capital preservation eh...

 

[ivant]

Macquarie is good, i would recommend them. However, i only use them for shares.

You should save 400k and use 150k for trading. Capital preservation eh...

is the live feed expensive? unfortunately i cant preserve all. tax time is coming around im not looking forward to that

 

[MRC & Co]

Na, Mr Livermoore wiped himself out plenty of times and with HUGE sums of $$$.

I reckon 3500s, then perhaps a rest and a test of 3300s. After that, not exactly sure. We could end up in a messy range from here for some time, with a lot of false signals, looking for the trends, whereas buying anything near 3000s and selling anything near 3800s may be the way to go.......just one option.

 

[Cartman]

seriously though --- if you started with $1500, how the heck did you ever get up to holding between 20-40 contracts?

accounts). . plus i do apologise when i said 20-30 lots, i did mean up to 50 mini lots(1/5ths) spread over 2 accounts. which means up to 10 full contracts, although i do confess i have went over at times.

i confess that i was skeptical, but my question was legitimate based on the info you had given -----

compounding X high risk+ a dash of good fortune is powerful stuff --- forget the ballz of steel ---- more like ballz of cryptonite

i'll go and extract my foot from my mouth now

 

[Aussiest]

is the live feed expensive? unfortunately i cant preserve all. tax time is coming around im not looking forward to that

You've just made 550k and you're asking about the live feed. Lol.

No, there is an ASX Royalty fee of $41.25, which is rebated after a certain monthly brok. spend. You would achieve that easily by the sounds of it.

By the way, may i ask: what were your overnight holding costs like (per night figure would be good) when you held SPI 200 and crude for days and weeks on end?

I'm thinking medium terms is the way to go, provided you have the "balls" to hold. Yes, balls of steel are definately in order .

 

[ivant]

i confess that i was skeptical, but my question was legitimate based on the info you had given -----

compounding X high risk+ a dash of good fortune is powerful stuff --- forget the ballz of steel ---- more like ballz of cryptonite

i'll go and extract my foot from my mouth now

hahaha no its cool. the trade2win forum had something similar to this a year back or so, and it was funny because the guy turned out to be a kid. although he didnt have reference numbers to prove trades lol. the thing is ill say it again, i didnt mean to brag at all (in fact i actually didnt think it was bragging material with such high leverage), it was to prove a point.

luck played a big part lol. i can tell you a load of stories!! haha.

You've just made 550k and you're asking about the live feed. Lol.

No, there is an ASX Royalty fee of $41.25, which is rebated after a certain monthly brok. spend. You would achieve that easily by the sounds of it.

By the way, may i ask: what were your overnight holding costs like (per night figure would be good) when you held SPI 200 and crude for days and weeks on end?

I'm thinking medium terms is the way to go, provided you have the "balls" to hold. Yes, balls of steel are definately in order .

well in reference to this, yea i think thats what most brokers offer, the rebate. lol it was funny i remember running around, wasting about an hour to find a secondhand textbook to save 60 bucks, the same day went out with my gf at the time for dinner and spent about 200 lol. i like to keep commissions down (so ironic when the crude spread is close to 20cents at times), however if the platform is good, its worth the money. i did actually mean the whole platform fee, the monthly cost, but i didnt express myself too well.

in reference to holding costs, ig markets doesnt charge at all for crude (as i think it is for all futures? would be great if someone confirmed), and for spi shorts they give you interest. the odd one is the dividends. if you are short you pay and if you are long you receive. i think that most of the big companies have given their mid year divs so it wont be charged too much over the course of the year. when i was long the spi they charged about 100 a day (including weekends) for holding 30 mini-contracts (based on one of my accounts). back in the day when LIBOR was really high, it was a lot more, but at the moment its pretty steady. based on that same account i have 18 short there and get $10 a day in interest. ig is so fair

in terms of balls of steal/cryptonite/uranium or anything else, id love to hope so haha. its more stubbornness.

 

[Nero64]

DEAL Closing trades 23/12/08 GQ54GD Australia 200 Cash (A$5 Mini Contract) - 3791.5 A$ +5 3580 A$-5,287.50

Hi Ivan,

That's a nasty draw down.

Do you use stops or just range trade and terminate when the loss gets too painful.

Also how did you setup two IG Markets accounts, don't you need ID for each new account. Do you hedge using both accounts.

When trading the Cash do you use graphs with TA support and resistance levels or do you just read the ticks.

I used to trade the SPI and cash. I spent hour upon hour studying it. Favourite part was the afternoon rally and I would pyramid. Problem was those afternoon rally's stopped but my trading psychology didn't change and I couldn't adapt quickly enough to what was happening in the US.

When trading the Indicies in Sept/Oct last year. The volatility was so great it was impossible to trade. Especially if holding the Futures over night. Out of the blue the market would gap 50 points and your stop triiggered or some news would just break out in the US and UK and in 5 secs you go from being profitable to being in a losing position.