My open book trading plan - Two month test

[CanOz]

Just a quick reply tonite guys, very busy at work and got a crappy connection tonite...still in SEK, missed out on OST today. If someone, Ron1n, Nizar, TI, NM4s could keep the thread alive until next week or so that would be great....

Thanks again Mway.

Thanks,

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Hi T.I.

Well I am still holding SEK, cant see how/why you would sell this one..

In regards to when to buy, if daytrading speccies its best to buy right before the close or even closing auction. Opening strength is great for selling into.

Now i trade EOD, I buy the open and sell the open. If i pay a bit more it doesnt matter as holding time is typically several weeks or months.

Totally fine, if it works it works. Yes i was talking about position trading not intra day, more to short term 1-5 days and 1-3 month short term trends. CFD leveraged trading.

I have been caught so many times doing that that now I swear against it, I have also noticed that a lot can change in 3 hours and clear patterns or break outs can lose there appeal around close the xjo fail last Friday is a prime example. At 11 looked the real deal by 3-3.45 was a total fail.

But like I said thats my take on it.

 

[R0n1n]

No probs Can, happy to keep this thread alive and everyone else is welcome to chip in.

So here is ORI. It had formed an ascending triangle and today seems to have broken out of it. Volume is looking positive and RSI is touching 60. So a trend is definitely forming.
Apologise for the graph as haven't got Amibroker here at work

your opinion guys. Would it qualify as a low risk entry ?

 

[nomore4s]

No probs Can, happy to keep this thread alive and everyone else is welcome to chip in.

So here is ORI. It had formed an ascending triangle and today seems to have broken out of it. Volume is looking positive and RSI is touching 60. So a trend is definitely forming.
Apologise for the graph as haven't got Amibroker here at work

your opinion guys. Would it qualify as a low risk entry ?

This one had a pretty strong day Ronin, you get on it? If you caught it early enough it might have been ok, say an entry around $30.50-$31.00 and a stop just under $29? Not really sure if I'd call it low risk though, high probability maybe?

 

[nomore4s]

A little of topic here (sorry Can) but this stock has been mentioned on this thread before, albeit very briefly.

Motorway (and/or others) I'm looking for some feedback on the following chart from CFE.

The day I'm worried about is the bar marked with the 1. Pushed up to 72c but sold back down with increased vol to finish well off the highs for the day. The last 2 days have been pretty weak as well, wide range down days on lowish vol (not much demand, supply having to reach).

What I'm seeing is some distribution above the 70c area - orange box, vol drops off once prices get under 70-72c (alot of resistance forming at 70c). The next rally is the important one for me, if prices fail to make a new high or even get back to the 70-72c area (forming a trading range?) it will be a bad sign especially if a lower low is made after that. Like I stated on the CFE thread I will be exiting my remaining holdings if a lower high is made.

Am still struggling a little with the VSA analysis, find it verying interesting though and has opened my eyes a bit, makes me realise how much I can improve my trading, my entries and exits could be so much better lol

 

[motorway]

A little of topic here (sorry Can) but this stock has been mentioned on this thread before, albeit very briefly.

Motorway (and/or others) I'm looking for some feedback on the following chart from CFE.

The day I'm worried about is the bar marked with the 1. Pushed up to 72c but sold back down with increased vol to finish well off the highs for the day. The last 2 days have been pretty weak as well, wide range down days on lowish vol (not much demand, supply having to reach).

What I'm seeing is some distribution above the 70c area - orange box, vol drops off once prices get under 70-72c (alot of resistance forming at 70c). The next rally is the important one for me, if prices fail to make a new high or even get back to the 70-72c area (forming a trading range?) it will be a bad sign especially if a lower low is made after that. Like I stated on the CFE thread I will be exiting my remaining holdings if a lower high is made.

Am still struggling a little with the VSA analysis, find it verying interesting though and has opened my eyes a bit, makes me realise how much I can improve my trading, my entries and exits could be so much better lol

Yes

I have just attempted to answer You twice
Both times when ready to click submit
Some glitch has closed the browser
and all lost



I will maybe come back later to it



Uptrend met climax
after preliminary supply
led to a lower low
NO longer up trend
struggled to a lower high
means it is now on this time frame in a DOWN trend.
last wave down .. shows increased ease of movement

Wyckoff Exit Strategies

In Order of Degree of Desirability


EXIT STRATEGY # 1

Take profits, eliminate positions, exit the market upon a climax action in the price objective zone . You cover your position when you see the climax in the price objective zone

EXIT STRATEGY # 2

Exit the market when there is repeated evidence that the current trend will not continue, and indeed may reverse.

Periodically monitor the market, the group and the stock for price and volume clues that warn of trend exhaustion.

“Act on warnings. Don’t wait for the breaks.”

EXIT STRATEGY # 3:

Exit the market automatically upon the hitting of a trailing stop (loss) order…this is the back up strategy.

From a Hank Pruden article on Wyckoff exit stategies taken from Wyckoff's Course

look at Your chart with these exit perspectives in mind...

It really is a very good example of many principles
worth while taking some time to dissect it..

eg the climatic bar is a "hypodermic" A large range bar at new highs
is like the injection of a stimulant... It is almost guaranteed to generate buying
So the response was very revealing-----> determined selling, which was clearly seen to overcome that buying..

The study of responses ... is an almost unerring guide to the technical position of the market."
- Rollo Tape (Richard Wyckoff), 1908

motorway

 

[motorway]

A chart

The duration of this down wave has been shorter than the first from the top
but the thrust is greater (the stride , the headway )

As it approaches the lower trend line

The question is , Will We see the thrust shorten ? Some narrower range bars ?

In a down trend that does gather a following.
The buyers can just go on strike... So the range of the bars is very important
and then esp the response... You What to see a reaction off that line

In the 1929 crash. Initially many stocks stopped falling because there were no longer ANY buyers...

So It is important to see a reaction OFF a low and not just a stop to the movement down......

motorway

 

[theasxgorilla]

In the 1929 crash. Initially many stocks stopped falling because there were no longer ANY buyers...

So It is important to see a reaction OFF a low and not just a stop to the movement down......

This is what makes VSA so facinating. When you think about it in the context of orders transacted, orders in the market, and those participants on the sidelines holding shares or with money in their accounts. What they do and what they don't do etc.

ASX.G

 

[vert]

here is another interesting way to look at this chart

after the initial high in march it retraced to fib 61.8 before starting next leg

next leg up is a 5 wave count and now looks to be in wave c of the corrective move

wave c looks as if it could coincide with the 61.8 retrace and bottom of channel

also this maybe a wave 4 of a larger count but i think wave 4 should not go below wave 1 ( not a full bottle on elliot wave)

 

[R0n1n]

This one had a pretty strong day Ronin, you get on it? If you caught it early enough it might have been ok, say an entry around $30.50-$31.00 and a stop just under $29? Not really sure if I'd call it low risk though, high probability maybe?

Yeah I got in at $30.70. Its been dropping a bit since then.... I am still in the positive, but watching it carefully.

 

[R0n1n]

I have getting stopped out but I had closed my position in MRE on 17th when it broke the support line. Thankfully I had only taken the position with 20% of my planned investment fund.

Looking at it today I am happy I sold out.

 

[R0n1n]

Hey everyone, here is AIX . Its just touched its resistance line today and has been trying to breach it for the last couple of days. There is steady drop in volume and to me it tell that not many people wanna sell it expecting it to make a move soon.

Now I was wondering is it forming a head and shoulder or a cup and handle patern ?

 

[nomore4s]

I'm with Can on this one, the long term trend is up.

But it's starting to look a bit shakey, with it currently under the 30week MA, the MA turning downward and the relative strength currently downward as well. There's enough suggesting it may be better to be on the sidelines for the time being.

This will be an interesting one to watch, with it being at the long time trend line, alot of support in general at the $1.70 level (especially on Fri - massive vol but high vol has come in a few other times at this level), and the H&S pattern. Does anyone know how long the H&S pattern remains valid for? ie If another wave takes the sp back up to the $1.95 level it will look more like a trading range to me.

To further our discussion on PMP.

Looks to have respected the long term trend line for the moment. Has moved away from it on very low vol in the last few days. The high vol bar from Fri the 13th is the interesting one, MW is this a "spring"? As price seem to be moving up with relative ease since then.

 

[motorway]

. A spring is a penetration below a previous support area which enables one to judge the quality and quantity of supply on that penetration .............As the stock goes into new low ground one of two things will happen. Either overwhelming supply will come in or no supply. .
The CRITICAL thing that is shown by the SPRING is the AMOUNT of SUPPLY that COMES OUT on the DRIVE to NEW LOW GROUND and HOW WELL that SUPPLY IS ABSORBED

Springs are a possible buy set up
depending on the context

eg is the spring occurring in an uptrend or a downtrend
How much penetration occurred, How much volume
Does the volume suggest that there is still supply at that level ?
Will There be a retest

A retest on lower volume can be a very good buy point

With PMP I remember having a quick look at the course of sales
Most of that volume seemed to be one transaction

Maybe some one could confirm that ?

Normally I would take that spring
( it penetrates the support from the adjacent low )
As a positive sign.
But
it is in a range
There was significant volume
It did not penetrate very much and did spring right back with a good close
As You say the "subsequent action" suggests there was demand
and some absorption....But the those subsequent bars have very low volume

Do they indicate a lack of demand ? at this stage willing to take this UP
"readiness to move"

What I would want to see is a Sign of Strength

an ACTION which shows that DEMAND is in control. .. should have GOOD DEMAND on the UP MOVE, a WIDE SPREAD and INCREASING VOLUME on the UPSIDE

This can be one or a few bars
As there been a SOS in this range You have outlined ?

It is the subsequent action that always confirms..

A spring... some ease of movement.. A sign of strength.. then a last point of support ( higher low ) volume in the rally less in the reaction

IF the volume on that spring was a lot lower it would have suggested no more supply at this level .. the penetration could not entice any sellers to follow .....

With that much volume I would be wary of a retest
The accumulators ( that is the only way that a range can exist )
Would have to think there is still cheap stock around ?

But I qualify that because one unusual trade might be responsible ?


In any case each bar is a another frame in the story

some Know "who done" it right away.. Some need to see half the film
Some even after the final credits still don't get it..

Look back at SEK it had a very clear SOS



.............

On AIX.... Have a good look at the CFE chart and comments ??

motorway

 

[CanOz]

Just a quick update. I've been stopped out of MRE. I'm planning on buying TEN today, its been on my watchlist since capitualtion. Try to post more later.

Cheers,

 

[nizar]

Just a quick update. I've been stopped out of MRE. I'm planning on buying TEN today, its been on my watchlist since capitualtion. Try to post more later.

Cheers,

Not sure about your universe, but CTS, GOP, MUN, ALD, all look the goods to me.

 

[vert]

PNA looks like a possible breakout

weekly chart shows sp rise back to high on lower volume - no supply

daily shows supply ran out 27/06

volume increased last 3 days with a nice big white candle yesterday

may test 0.72 for support

im going to buy @0.755 if possible with stop 0.71
any other thoughts?

 

[nomore4s]

.............

On AIX.... Have a good look at the CFE chart and comments ??

motorway

Have only had a quick look don't have much time at the moment, but there looks to be some similiarities between the 2. Both coming off new highs and stalling at a lower high for a number of days (AIX currently at this point), might post more tomorrow after I've had a closer look, if I get time.

 

[nomore4s]

Can, did you end up getting on PNA, its run like a champ, don't ever listen to me, lol.

Porper, you still in BPT? Looking good, looks to be some resistance at $1.49-$1.50, if it pushes through that it will be looking really good.

Motorway, is the last wave up in the orange box a sign of strength? Last 2 days especially look good with closes at the high with good vol, buyers look to be in control atm.

 

[motorway]

Can, did you end up getting on PNA, its run like a champ, don't ever listen to me, lol.

Porper, you still in BPT? Looking good, looks to be some resistance at $1.49-$1.50, if it pushes through that it will be looking really good.

Motorway, is the last wave up in the orange box a sign of strength? Last 2 days especially look good with closes at the high with good vol, buyers look to be in control atm.

Yes BPT looks promising
notice there was on a small scale a
little rally ( automatic ) and retest of the climax low that suggested that there was no longer much supply..


We then get some volume in the rally You have marked
a buying wave that shows some ease of movement

The last BAR has lower Volume
But not that low if You look at what is "normal"
So demand overcame supply and reasonable demand..

A good setup Would be a pullback to around $1.36 ( $1.36 atm and from this particular bar)
Lowish volume some narrow range bars.

This is only one scenario


A ""last point of support"
A "springboard" to launch off and get through the overhead resistance

Look How the move down to the climax has already
bought about a change of ownership..

How "Smart" is that Buying know seen to have been
look at the subsequent "response" (porper )

The SOS has to be confirmed with a LPS ( last point of support )
IF the price moves down on heavy volume and retraces
most of the SOS.. Then the SOS is unconfirmed...

All You have to have is enough confirmation For YOUR purpose
have a logical stop that would in this case negate the bullish definition
And have some view of the possible reward.. ( How much accumulation can We see as We look backwards ? )

On a slightly larger scale
This action is also just a
A higher low in the uptrend that started
on the 14/03 We want to see a higher higher on that time/magnitude scale

magnitudes and time frames !



You were looking at PMP
Did you see the retest of the spring
I suggested You look out for ?

How aggressive Do you want to be ?
Someone bought it ...

A spring with high volume
Then a retest produces another spring
But on lower volume even though it penetrated to larger degree..

No supply confirmed ?

test response/test response

What Do You want to see in PMP
as a confirming response ?

A SOS .

MRE ?
Shows how You can get out of step on a bulge
Last BAR shows demand .

But You want to see enough confirmation to
support a bullish or bearish definition
And When You see enough, act.

What builds a bullish definition ?

SOS,LPS, springs,
ease of movement in the buying waves which
have some volume participating..
secondary tests on lower and lower volume..

And "JUMPS" through resistance
That either keep going or successfully "back up'')

Dependant on particular circumstances and how much Accumulation
precedes

etc etc etc...


As long as a bullish definition continues to be confirmed
Stay long.

bearish ? Stay short

neutral ? Better opportunities elsewhere
But on the watch list waiting developments

Keep in harmony with the mkt
look for strength and weakness

esp in the counter waves/trends..


motorway