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My open book trading plan - Two month test

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Did someone mention the big picture, heres the weekly.

Cheers,
 

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ROn1n, I liked your chart of PMP, keep those descending triangles coming!

You raised an interesting question re 200 day MA. Given that we are looking at short term trading during an up trend, a medium term up trend should do rather than needing a long term up trend. (Read up/down trend)

Question is how long is a medium term trend ie would a 90 day MA suffice?

Edit: I guess PMP is in a down trend however you look at it. (Pity I still like the look of the last price and volume bars
 
Its in a downtrend?

Hmmm....to me its at a critical juncture, you've got the weekly chart showing it against the trendline, and a possible H&S pattern to be confirmed....

Then there is that interesting price action...everythings needs confirmation.

Cheers,
 
Yeah I think its at a critical juncture... Like Can said.. everything needs confirmation.

Wonder what Motorway or IFocus or others with a lot more experience would say ?

CFD how about FLX ? it has tried quite a few times to break out and may be this is the time it has ? I guess all it needs is a boost of volume to give it the escape velocity to go blue skies.

.
 

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nizar said:
Some may argue that its in a downtrend because its trading below its 200dma.
Click to expand...

Like ASX G'rilla said on his blog...sometimes you gotta step beck and look at it from a distance.

He was quoting someone else...but you get the idea.

Cheers,
 
CanOz said:
Like ASX G'rilla said on his blog...sometimes you gotta step beck and look at it from a distance.

He was quoting someone else...but you get the idea.

Cheers,
Click to expand...

He was quoting Ed Seykota, arugably the best trader of all time.

I tend to agree, and i dont use moving averages in my trading (as yet, but may well do once i test it). Notice i said "some" not me
 
CanOz said:
Like ASX G'rilla said on his blog...sometimes you gotta step beck and look at it from a distance.

He was quoting someone else...but you get the idea.

Cheers,
Click to expand...

I'm with Can on this one, the long term trend is up.

But it's starting to look a bit shakey, with it currently under the 30week MA, the MA turning downward and the relative strength currently downward as well. There's enough suggesting it may be better to be on the sidelines for the time being.

This will be an interesting one to watch, with it being at the long time trend line, alot of support in general at the $1.70 level (especially on Fri - massive vol but high vol has come in a few other times at this level), and the H&S pattern. Does anyone know how long the H&S pattern remains valid for? ie If another wave takes the sp back up to the $1.95 level it will look more like a trading range to me.
 

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nomore4s, just looking for a discussion here so that I may learn.

I asked the question as to how long a trend needs to be for short term trading. (ie to trade with the trend)

You went back 5 years to show an up trend, if you had gone back 3 years you would show a down trend. Perhaps I should have said it was ranging rather than in a down trend, but my original question re ROn1n's 200 day MA remains.

Is it necessary to follow a 200 MA to trade short term with the trend, or would say a 90 MA suffice?
 

CFD, I only showed 5 years to get a general overview of the stock, I would say its been in an uptrend since around April 05? Last two or so years?

As for your question I'm definately not the best person to answer it as I don't use MAs for my entries on the daily chart (sometimes for my exits, but very rarely). Maybe one of the more expirenced traders who use MAs might be able to answer your question.
Short term I would say this is in a trading range but it could be looking to break down? Therefore becoming a downtrend? Either way its not a trade I would take until we get some confirmation either way. Just my opinion.
 
I don't use MAs for my entries on the daily chart either. I just don't wish to trade against the trend.

Just looking to clarify what this trend is for short term trading.
 
He was quoting Ed Seykota, arguably the best trader of all time
Click to expand...

Ed Seykota also gave the best advice “don’t waste your time learning to trade put your effort into finding some one that can and give them your money” LOL


PMP could turn out to be a ten bagger who knows I was just thinking there are many simpler trends around with less complexity in the price structure. Its only a suggestion everyone has to find their own way

Because I am not that clever I use a 20ma and a 50ma on my charts just so that I know if the trend is up or down. Over the years the distance between the ma’s and distance to price also gives me information plus I guess it’s a comfort factor. Another thing the 20ma gives me is the reminder that price will always return to it like a dog on a leash, remember I am not that clever…….


I do not use them for entry / exit signals.


Focus
 
I see lots of good observations going on

An uptrend is a series of higher highs and higher lows

Of a certain magnitude

So on different magnitudes
A stock can be in an uptrend and a trading range
And a downtrend

magnitude has a relation to time frame

BUT.. trends speed up and slow down

PMP on the daily is in a trading range
On The monthly it is in a downtrend
on the weekly it is at a juncture

If you are looking at series of individual bars

Inside bars are ranging
bars with higher highs and lows are trending

a rally is just a series of bars

can look at them as amounts of time or amounts of move

Three Key words

Character, relation of the close to the range and volume ,The position.
Ease, of the movements up and down, durations ( how many bars ).
Change , of behavior where demand and supply emerge and gain control.

High Volume often is a sign of change of behavior
as is change in magnitudes ( a narrow range bar.. a lower high or low )
trends change speed ( angle ) and/or direction..

Com.rel . strength is important how is it changing .. PMP has been weak...

Not much time... atm

CFD

IS there likely to be a magnitude of useful moves in your time frame ?
IF so then that is enough time..

define and look for trends in those terms
and a whole lot of indicators become
almost useless

PMP on the daily will be in a uptrend when it makes a higher high and a higher low.

You will Know what the best average to use is only after it happens.
Because you don't know what the speed will be...
The magnitude of move in time
The angle of trend...

You define the current trend
You see what the C. rel strength is doing
and then you trade in harmony ..
And when You see a Change of Behavior
You change or get ready to change too.

motorway
 
Thanks MW given me plenty to think about again.

Can, OST, SSX, ROC all going well today you get on any of them? SEK going strong today as well, but I know you got on that one.
 
ROC was a buy when it closed above the range at $3.54 sometime last week.
I missed it and didnt chase.
 
nizar said:
They both look GREAT to me.
Well done.

OST you bought this mornings open?
Click to expand...


yep got OST as soon as it opened. One of the few times I broke my rule not to enter till 1/2 hour after market open.
 
Can,

rocking sek mate rocking sek, what a break out!

I took profits on it but hope you guys have not.

dont take to much into my fib forcast but based on the angle its on now i would suggest a minor retrace on the cards something to 38-50 i hope at most for you guys.

Any way, what I want to say is well done Can for seeing it, acting on it and holding it (if u still are) that is what good trading is about holding your winners no matter what your mind try's to justify u to sell it! so well done.

R0n1n
1/2 an hour after open! sorry but I personally think that's not a grerat way to trade your gambling on market sentiment. I wont take a position on anything in oz market until 15min till close sometimes 1/2 an hour till close. how can u have accurate idea at that time in the day. my personal opinion no offence ment.

Cheers
 

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Hi T.I.

Well I am still holding SEK, cant see how/why you would sell this one..

In regards to when to buy, if daytrading speccies its best to buy right before the close or even closing auction. Opening strength is great for selling into.

Now i trade EOD, I buy the open and sell the open. If i pay a bit more it doesnt matter as holding time is typically several weeks or months.
 
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