Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

My open book trading plan - Two month test

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nomore4s said:
SEK was looking good in the morning session to break through that $7.90ish resistance but was sold back down in the arvo to close near its low on lowish vol again, not a good sign imo. Hopefully it can hold above $7.60 or it will signal an exit for me and I will look to re-enter later.



I'm not sure about it being supply, with the low vol and prices not being sold down too far (yet) looks more like a lack of demand?

Thoughts?
Click to expand...

There was some supply on the 3rd and 4th
I was looking to see either that that supply was absorbed by a lateral move and It then broke out.

or It will have to head back down to do some more "work"

atm it looks like it is heading back down

maybe to set up a buy point ...
In the vicinity of $7.5

Or maybe Not :) ,If instead I see ease of movement all the way back to the bottom of the range Thus negating the Sign of strength that I was looking to be confirmed.

Have a look at the BPT chart posted see the upthrust after the lateral move ?

Well SEK just had an upthrust...
Not on the same scale for sure..

But still suggesting to Me weakness atm


motorway
 
nomore4s said:
Porper did you get an entry on this today?

I missed the opportunity for my final pyramid position with a type of swing trade set up that I've been looking at, but I've only just started looking at this type of set up and didn't have enough faith in it:banghead:, showing my inexperience, will post up the info sometime tomorrow.

Be good to get some feed back on it from some more experienced people as well.
Click to expand...

Nomore,

No, didn't get on again, Risk/reward wasn't high enough, I almost pulled the trigger but that would be going against my rules (emotion coming in) :eek: .I won't trade it unless the R/R is 4 or more.

If this is a new lower degree wave 1, I will wait for the pullback and try and pick the start of the wave 3 up to the larger gegree wave 3.it may not pull back, we'll just have to see.
 
motorway said:
Have a look at the BPT chart posted see the upthrust after the lateral move ?

Well SEK just had an upthrust...
Not on the same scale for sure..

But still suggesting to Me weakness atm


motorway
Click to expand...

Seemed like a little test of supply to me, still some there too.

Cheers,
 
Guys, remember that to achieve a certain R/R, trade frequency is a very important factor. If you hardly trade, then you will not achieve the positive expectancy of the system. Also, not every trade has to be R/R>4 for overall R/R for a system over X no. of trades over N number of years, to be 4.

Porper, how do you come to price targets? From fib numbers like Can?
Have you found in the past these projections to be accurate?

Like Iv said in the past, i cant assess R/R because i dont know how to, and also i dont want to limit the upside. I would hate to cap my winners.
 
nizar said:
Guys, remember that to achieve a certain R/R, trade frequency is a very important factor. If you hardly trade, then you will not achieve the positive expectancy of the system. Also, not every trade has to be R/R>4 for overall R/R for a system over X no. of trades over N number of years, to be 4.

Porper, how do you come to price targets? From fib numbers like Can?
Have you found in the past these projections to be accurate?

Like Iv said in the past, i cant assess R/R because i dont know how to, and also i dont want to limit the upside. I would hate to cap my winners.
Click to expand...

Not sure I follow you here Nizar, trade frequency shouldn't make any difference.In the long term the expectancy will be the same no matter how often you trade.

As for price targets I use Fib projections, time & price.Sometimes use measured moves from triangle breakouts etc, but not something I scan for.

I never take profits at projected targets, only tighten the stops right up.Like you say, never sell for the sake of it when the trend continues.
 
Anybody here still following SEK?

Seems to be on the UP today, on low volumes, indicating a lack of supply.

Still a long way before the close, will be interesting to see if theres resistance at the $7.93-7.95 level as seen in the past or whether it breaks out.
 
nizar said:
Anybody here still following SEK?

Seems to be on the UP today, on low volumes, indicating a lack of supply.

Still a long way before the close, will be interesting to see if theres resistance at the $7.93-7.95 level as seen in the past or whether it breaks out.
Click to expand...

Yeah i'm still in it my real portfolio, Nick reviewed it last night in the Chartist too....might tighten up the stop tomorrow.

Cheers,
 
nizar said:
Anybody here still following SEK?

Seems to be on the UP today, on low volumes, indicating a lack of supply.

Still a long way before the close, will be interesting to see if theres resistance at the $7.93-7.95 level as seen in the past or whether it breaks out.
Click to expand...

What just happened to SEK? Comsec down logged back in and it's at $8.10 with a high of $8.26, where'd that come from?
 
nomore4s said:
What just happened to SEK? Comsec down logged back in and it's at $8.10 with a high of $8.26, where'd that come from?
Click to expand...

Couple of big orders.
A 12k took out the $7.95 sellers, and then an 8k took it upto $8.00.

After that it started running like a champion, sell side was thin.

Looks to me like a couple of buy-gain orders were triggered from those on the sidelines.
 
Snake yes i know.
I usually dont take much notice, but since nomore4s asked, i brought it up and had a look.

Id be keen to know your take on SEK, snake.

I think its gonna go big time, the last stock i remember to break out from a 4-month consolidation was AED at $5.25. Look what happened there :eek:
 
nizar said:
Snake yes i know.
I usually dont take much notice, but since nomore4s asked, i brought it up and had a look.

Id be keen to know your take on SEK, snake.

I think its gonna go big time, the last stock i remember to break out from a 4-month consolidation was AED at $5.25. Look what happened there :eek:
Click to expand...
NIZ..,

Well it has made a new high today and pulled back a bit. It can only mean that it is bullish as we see it. We may see some weakness before the push up or maybe not. Yesterday we had a pullback from $8. That's the perspective. As long as it holds above $7 and doesn't drop below $6.50ish the bears would then take control I feel.

Ultimately I don't know though and have no inclination of trying to know. :) This is just discussion in answer to your question.

Enjoy your trading.
Snake
 
Snake are you still holding ROC?
Fair recovery from that long tail.

Can, take a look at MPO. Seems to be strong support (previous resistance) at 28.5c. Whats your projected R/R on this one?
 
nizar said:
Snake are you still holding ROC?
Fair recovery from that long tail.

Can, take a look at MPO. Seems to be strong support (previous resistance) at 28.5c. Whats your projected R/R on this one?
Click to expand...

161.8% fibb target is 36.5, with a stop at 28.5 and an entry at 31 gives a 2.1:1

I've had this in my personal portfolio for a while too....but not as long as you;)

Cheers,
 
Hey Can, here's one to watch if it breaks resistance at $3.55 (ROC).

Not really low risk though, the best place for the stop would be $3.20ish? Could maybe place a very tight stop at the $3.45 level but it makes the trade a bit risker.
 

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Agree Nomore4s, i think we'll take a posi tomorrow.:)

Cheers,
 

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