My open book trading plan - Two month test

motorway said:

compare this "supply day" with the one on the 27th

Should tell You a lot
about the dynamics

What Can You see ?

Also keep the context of a significant move already
It is OK that someone wants to take profits

An issue here is readiness to move

motorway

Click to expand...

It looks like distribution to me, with the sellers not in any hurry to move letting the buyers come to them. The 3 larger vol days have all come with wide rangeing down days with all 3 days starting up around the $1.35 mark, and ending around the $1.25-$1.28 mark.

There doesn't look to be a lot of demand to me, the sp moves up on low vol but I think this is due to the sellers letting the price come to them anything around $1.35 gets sold down pretty hard with high vol.

Not entirely sure about what you mean with the sentence in bold.

vert said:

both days 27/6 and 2/7 closed at 1.28 with the later having more 1 1/2 times the vol of the first

so demand is still strong and willing to keep paying that and above?

Click to expand...

I'm not sure about this, if demand is so strong why are the volumes so low when the prices drop? It looks like the supply pulls back and wait for demand to come to them.

Also on further inspection of the chart it looks like the dynamics have changed since the high was made on the 26th of June. With wide range down days on high vol appearing, and prices not moving up with as much ease as before.

I think there was certainly an end to the uptrend..

prices moved up and found volume
and there has been weakness since

There was preliminary SUPPLY
and there was spread over a number of bars at the top
A climax to the buying..

There is always supply and demand being left behind by the trend

In this case there was demand following along
think of buyers who kept missing out
as the prices moved away from them

Finally there were sellers who met that demand

I see MGX a mirror image to MRE

An uptrend can not end like this ( with VOLUME )
unless there is distribution
from one group to another..

Now it does not mean that prices are going to fall
It could just mean a trading range..


The action So far.. compare it to SEK
compare it to an equivalent number of bars
near and from the top of the SEK chart

I see the same wide range bars that
lead to some high volume down bars and a fair bit of
volatility....

It took awhile to get sorted
For the volume and volatility to subside
And it ended up in a trading range
which after the distribution period
took the shape of accumulation

( question today's bar in SEK did it get anyone interested ? )

SO with MGX

I see definite distribution
maybe just normal profit taking
But too early to judge
if any "smart " accumulation is happening


I would be looking out for some warning signs
of more significant distribution ( Like BPT had recently )

or for signs of accumulation to become evident
( like in SEK )

compare MGX to MRE

and the equivalent bars to SEK

Some useful charts

An upside down MGX looks like accumulation
So what does that make MGX in reality ?

The P&F shows a topping formation
and two congestion areas that failed to make upward progress

I think I should wait for the "forced move"

What do We think of MRE today
What do We think of SEK today


I think when at the fork in a road
We are best to come to a firm conviction
But be ready to change our view immediately

No conviction We just get stuck ringing Our hands
going nowhere..

My opinions...

prices go up
they stop going up
volume increases

what's happening ?





motorway

thanks nm4s for you added imput, i am very much a student here
something i definately want to learn but may take some time.

so instead of saying
so demand is still strong and willing to keep paying that and above?
i really should be saying this is distribution as the sp is now looking like it is in a trading range with high vol down days and low vol up days and larger trading ranges? which i can see

next should be accumulation high vol ups low vol downs in tighter ranges in theory?

I think when at the fork in a road
We are best to come to a firm conviction
But be ready to change our view immediately

Click to expand...

i think the direction will be tested at the bottom channel line if it trades sideways
i guess what we want is for accumulation to come in before then so that the likely outcome is a positve move.

today i noticed that when the sp broke 1.30 and got to 1.34 it was met with supply and sold back to 1.31, i guess there is still some supply left before this can move in the near future.

MRE and SEK are both encountering resistance in the form of supply

Cheers,

Refer to charts, am i close with this?

Can

You have a weekly chart on SEK

Look at the daily... Things are starting to happen


The last wave up

Was a sign of strength.
It was a clear sign of demand starting to exert control.
That little wave had more following and less opposition
than any move in the entire trading range.

It is unlikely that it will go to the moon...
So the reaction back is the real test
How much following, How much opposition

Important to look at HOW FAR
And How much

IF We see
A clear higher support form

We will have demand exerting control
and supply becoming passive

We might start to get a series
of higher highs and higher lows

That is what I am seeing
at this fork in the road

I see Buy setups forming

MRE ..

When following is gathered
even at close quarters
Buying puts selling on the back foot
Selling puts buying on the back foot

Buyers are finding that sellers who were put on the back foot from
The day before are now meeting them.

Key points I will be looking for
Does demand stand it's ground
Is any selling absorbed..

MRE atm looks promising

After absorption
ease of movement should improve

What are trends made of ?
Waves of buying and selling that gather and lose followings

If We start to see higher lows
Which lead to higher highs ?

BINGO !

Busy day today
A few of My observations

See back later tonight

motorway

Thanks motorway!

I've got the daily up on SEK, i hit the wrong file at first.


I see what your saying, i like the bit about about waves and thier following...

Cheers,

Well guys off for a few weeks sitting on an island in the Pacific (Hawaii) as of Sunday.
Hope all goes well in your exercise canaussiuk and will look in on my return.

tech/a said:

Well guys off for a few weeks sitting on an island in the Pacific (Hawaii) as of Sunday.
Hope all goes well in your exercise canaussiuk and will look in on my return.

Click to expand...

Good timing with the AUD/USD pair Tech.

Have a safe trip.

Cheers,

Guys, looks like MRE will do what BSL did. Have a look...
Now lemme try to analyze this stock the way Motorway does... (atlest I can attempt)

The big green buying line on the 21st is when people were looking for good entry jumped in thinking it had broken its downward trend.

The big red selling line on the 29th was considered by many as a lower high and hence the big sale to offload the stock.

The blue square is where the buyers and sellers are testing each others strength and weakness.

Currently it has formed a higher low. Now the million dollar question... buy or not ?
To me its a cautious wait to see how it pans out on Monday.

tech/a said:

Well guys off for a few weeks sitting on an island in the Pacific (Hawaii) as of Sunday.
Hope all goes well in your exercise canaussiuk and will look in on my return.

Click to expand...

Have fun Tech

motorway said:

Look at the daily... Things are starting to happen

The last wave up

Was a sign of strength.
It was a clear sign of demand starting to exert control.
That little wave had more following and less opposition
than any move in the entire trading range.

It is unlikely that it will go to the moon...
So the reaction back is the real test
How much following, How much opposition

Important to look at HOW FAR
And How much

IF We see
A clear higher support form

We will have demand exerting control
and supply becoming passive

We might start to get a series
of higher highs and higher lows

That is what I am seeing
at this fork in the road

I see Buy setups forming


motorway

Click to expand...

Motorway,

In regards to SEK.
With the last 2 days they have been tighter range days with very little volume, how do you view these days? I see them as bullish, supply hasn't come in to push prices back down and both days have managed higher closes without much vol(effort), with today especially having very strong last 30mins and good close.

This is looking like a text book breakout with the pullback on reducing volume. Was expecting a pullback to around $7.60ish but $7.70 is looking fairly strong atm(this could change next week of course).

IMO needs to break above $7.91 to really confirm the break out of the trading channel. There also looks to be a double top @ $7.91. This is where the conviction of the buyers could be tested?

CanOz said:

Good timing with the AUD/USD pair Tech.

Have a safe trip.

Cheers,

Click to expand...

Can I took a small initial trade on SEK this afternoon on the weekly chart. As the break out convinced me.

next move for seek could be futher up side with then a chance of a natural reaction which i will use to add on.

did you take the play?

nomore4s said:

Motorway,

In regards to SEK.
With the last 2 days they have been tighter range days with very little volume, how do you view these days? I see them as bullish, supply hasn't come in to push prices back down and both days have managed higher closes without much vol(effort), with today especially having very strong last 30mins and good close.

This is looking like a text book breakout with the pullback on reducing volume. Was expecting a pullback to around $7.60ish but $7.70 is looking fairly strong atm(this could change next week of course).

IMO needs to break above $7.91 to really confirm the break out of the trading channel. There also looks to be a double top @ $7.91. This is where the conviction of the buyers could be tested?

Click to expand...

A lot to say
little time to say it....
have a good look here

I think there is accumulation since
the first red arrow from the left..

A lot of volume and the subsequent action did what ?

The Second red arrow ?
A test
more accumulation
lot less volume

Why ?

What happens then
is that price does not come back to the bottom of the trading range

The first time ( not marked )
A little wave moves up
How ordered are the bars ?
~ 11 of them

some duration some following

The last move down ( marked with the last red arrow )

Is short and abrupt . Not much duration .. Not much following

moves down are losing their following
sellers becoming unwilling ?

So what about the last wave
it moves from just above the bottom of the trading range
All the way to the top
And it did not take much effort

This is a Sign of Strength

It is one of the signs I think We need to see
That confirms a readiness to move


What is the other ? That will confirm The SOS as a SOS

A lateral move just under the top of the trading range
That leads to a breakout near the top "?"

Or a pullback to a clear last point of support
In the vicinity of the half way point marked..

I think it looks very promising
and I think your observations are correct..

This is looking like a text book

Click to expand...

I think there is a high degree of clarity

It is Now You have to decide when to pull the trigger ?


Another thing to keep in mind
IS the tide of the mkt

XJO is tracing out a broadening pattern in a trading range
It is swinging back up to the top of the range

If XJO was in a clear uptrend
Our attempted longs would have the push of the market behind them

Back to SEK
A lateral move at the top of the range would
in effect be our pullback
it would be absorption of supply
and the breakout might be a high probability trade

A move back that found no supply willing to follow
and clear support form in the vicinity of the halfway point

Would ( look at the chart ) be a clear change of behaviour
And might even be a higher probability buy point
having price coming right off the "Springboard"

( nice and close to support and close stop levels )

The SOS is already good confirmation
We just need the backup or lateral move to confirm the SOS
........

R0n1n

look at more of the chart for context
BSL

Where are We
in relation to the halfway point
of the last main move up ?
and what ended that move

Who pulled the plug supply or demand

makes a difference maybe how much preparation
We need to see ( accumulation ) before the next move..

And finally
It is just observations for discussion

motorway

Thanks Motorway for that analysis...Trade It, i've been in SEK from Tuesday with 800 CFDs in my personel portfolio but the only two we have in the Open Book plan are MAH, and MRE.

We need some more canidates for Monday morning....Keep them coming folks.

Cheers,

CanOz said:

Thanks Motorway for that analysis...Trade It, i've been in SEK from Tuesday with 800 CFDs in my personel portfolio but the only two we have in the Open Book plan are MAH, and MRE.

We need some more canidates for Monday morning....Keep them coming folks.

Cheers,

Click to expand...

Can,

Have a look at the CFE thread.I think it has good potential.
It is very early to pick the start of the hopefully long wave 5, (finishing the larger degree wave 3) but the early bird catches the worm !!

Could wait for more confirmation, ie. Wave B being exceeded but then the risk reward wouldn't be good enough.

Another way to trade it is to wait for wave B to be exceeded.We would then be in a minor degree wave 1.We could then trade from hopefully the low of wave 2 for a better risk/reward.

On my watchlist anyway and I may bite the bullet on Monday as per CFE thread.

Still a bit of supply around in this one, but it might be one to keep an eye on

Here is DJS. Its been trading in its range for the last couple of days and has tested the upper limit and from the past record it has done this and broken out to fresh highs. Volume has been very supportive of it as can be seen on the 29th of June.

It might still trade in its range on Monday but its one to watch as when ever it breaks out from its range it would be good to get on board.

Here are some interesting charts for BPT
This skidded hard into buy volume..

The action at the top came from a messy trading range
compare to the ranges that were continuations

The volume is Higher and the position is higher
Than when the bottom at $1.04 formed



Bar Chart
P&F chart
Intra Bar P&F chart with Volume..

motorway