MTS - Metcash Limited

[prawn_86]

Re: MTS - Metcash

We only shop at an IGa for the odd bits and peices that we have ran out of, purely due to the fact that it is the closest 'convenience store' and within walking distance

 

[Julia]

Re: MTS - Metcash

I think its the lighting.

I was in one yesterday and it just felt seedy

The local Supa Iga has just been renovated. It still utterly misses the mark.
It's like Aldi - looks cheap and nasty. Old fashioned presentation and signage.
Staff are really good, but oh, the prices of fruit and veg: in many cases they are double those of Coles and Woolworths.

 

[ROE]

Re: MTS - Metcash

These guys looking to get into car parts and car services and sell out fresh food ??
Coles and Woolies must be giving them a hard time that they has to look at investing
automobile business....

the lastest purchase I dont know, car parts are low margin high competitive business...

are they desperate to look for other revenue? their grocery wont be going any where with
the 2 supermarket giants on their tails..

Look at super cheap auto, they are a dog for years in car parts until they expand into outdoor (BCF)
and rebel sports...

 

[coolcup]

Re: MTS - Metcash

Technicals appear bearish - the stock looks like it is about to complete a long term descending triangle formation



Fundamentals though appear quite supportive on a 12x P/E and 10% dividend yield grossed up for franking. Also the stock is at the largest discount to WOW & WES on a P/E basis for the past 4 years.



On balance, I think the near term outlook is grim if it fails support at $3.75.

 

[coolcup]

Re: MTS - Metcash

Technicals appear bearish - the stock looks like it is about to complete a long term descending triangle formation

View attachment 52513

Fundamentals though appear quite supportive on a 12x P/E and 10% dividend yield grossed up for franking. Also the stock is at the largest discount to WOW & WES on a P/E basis for the past 4 years.

View attachment 52512

On balance, I think the near term outlook is grim if it fails support at $3.75.

The stock is testing the $3.75 primary support level. Watch out if it fails here!!

 

[skc]

Re: MTS - Metcash

The stock is testing the $3.75 primary support level. Watch out if it fails here!!

MTS is reporting in 3 weeks so it'd be a battle between those who fear the continued market share decline of IGA, vs those who drool over the prospect of 7.5% dividend yield.

My guess is that it will bounce well at $3.75 for a few days before drifting directionless into the reporting date.

 

[coolcup]

Re: MTS - Metcash

MTS is reporting in 3 weeks so it'd be a battle between those who fear the continued market share decline of IGA, vs those who drool over the prospect of 7.5% dividend yield.

My guess is that it will bounce well at $3.75 for a few days before drifting directionless into the reporting date.

I don't disagree with this. I think it needs more newsflow to get out of the $3.75 - $4.00 range.

 

[Letts]

Re: MTS - Metcash

Solid growth so far today, I think I jumped on a bit late to fully maximise any profits though.

 

[coolcup]

Re: MTS - Metcash

Solid growth so far today, I think I jumped on a bit late to fully maximise any profits though.

My take was the rally today was relief there was no underlying downgrade in the result and proof the stock was very oversold from a fundamental perspective (double digit grossed up yield and close to single digit P/E). The outlook for growth doesn't look great though with the company's grocery operations mashed between the deep discounting by the majors (Coles, Woolworths) and the Aldi's / Costco's lower cost / lower variety models. New CEO does bring scope for some cost out but there is always a limit on how much this can actually bring. The new ad / branding campaign gives me more of a sense of what IGA stands for but it doesn't really fill me with a reason why hordes of people will go there. Still bearish, albeit the bounce could be sustained on the back of broker notes reiterating price targets well above the trading price.

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: MTS - Metcash

I still think this may head to long term support below.

But it has been a good dividend stock, so who knows?

 

[rbgmauq]

Re: MTS - Metcash

MTS has been showing support 3.41 and resistance in the 3.935 price range. It is upgraded to a buy with the 4.596 target price in six months.

For detail analysis, see here: http://au.stoxline.com/q_au.php?symbol=mts&c=ax

 

[McCoy Pauley]

Re: MTS - Metcash

BOOM~! there drops the share price after MTS revealed a fall in EPS of up to 9% for the current financial year at the AGM today (according to the Age). Share price fell almost 6% by the end of today's trading.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/e...unges-on-profit-downgrade-20130828-2sqao.html

 

[So_Cynical]

Re: MTS - Metcash

BOOM~! there drops the share price after MTS revealed a fall in EPS of up to 9% for the current financial year at the AGM today (according to the Age). Share price fell almost 6% by the end of today's trading.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/e...unges-on-profit-downgrade-20130828-2sqao.html

Metcash is a little fish, the only fish in a little sea with 2 big sharks....not a happy place to be a little fish.

Its hard to see many/any positives for them.

 

[skc]

Re: MTS - Metcash

BOOM~! there drops the share price after MTS revealed a fall in EPS of up to 9% for the current financial year at the AGM today (according to the Age). Share price fell almost 6% by the end of today's trading.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/e...unges-on-profit-downgrade-20130828-2sqao.html

I like how they buried the downgrade deep in the AGM presentation. Managed to do a short trade upon resumption that turned my day from meh to fruitful

 

[SeekingYields]

Re: MTS - Metcash

I'm unfortunately sitting on them at an average of ~$3.45

But I have always taken a long term view for them with a decent dividend yield. So I will sit tight.

 

[ROE]

Re: MTS - Metcash

At the current price I think the market don't expect much from MTS, so I say the upside is better than down side...so the market know between 7-9% EPS decline and being a fairly stable cash flow business it wont have much surprise on the down side....Yield can take away some of the pain....

sound like TLS not long ago so if they can reinvent and restructure a bit could be a decent return from here..

you are 20c down I wouldn't worry too much about it if you happy with the yield ...it aint mining stock it wont drop off the cliff
probably dripping between $3.00 - $3.30 until the next update

 

[SeekingYields]

Re: MTS - Metcash

Very good week for Metcash and after buying up when they hit the low 3.20's I have basically recouped all my unrealised losses on my entire holding. Still believe it is a good long term bet.

 

[Ijustnewit]

Re: MTS - Metcash

Metcash down to $3.05 this week , 28% down on a 52 week roll . Oh dear , lucky the dividends are not too bad . Long term outlook surely can't be that bad given these guys are the third largest suppliers to supermarkets after Coles & Woolies.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Re: MTS - Metcash

Metcash down to $3.05 this week , 28% down on a 52 week roll . Oh dear , lucky the dividends are not too bad . Long term outlook surely can't be that bad given these guys are the third largest suppliers to supermarkets after Coles & Woolies.

I don't know about that.

This stock over 5 years has caused grief for investors.

A high div cannot excuse a price rout.

Can it go lower than high $2 ?

gg

 

[piggybank]

Re: MTS - Metcash

Agree it's looking very bearish atm.