Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

MTS - Metcash Limited

wow (probably not the right exclamation)

some aspects are better than the big supermarkets:
Screenshot_20241025_112913_Drive.jpg

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so hardware must be a frightmare.

"As noted in the Company’s prior trading update (period to 8 Sept 2024), the external market for the Independent Hardware Group (IHG) continued to be very challenging with Trade activity softening even further. It was also noted that retail store margins in IHG were facing pressure due to the impact of lower volumes on fixed costs. Since that update, there has been additional margin pressure in retail stores in September and October, particularly in Trade due to further sales weakness. This weakness in retail store sales has been offset by lower-margin wholesale sales.

"Metcash is responding to the weaker trading conditions in Hardware by implementing additional cost management initiatives and accelerating its strategic initiatives to drive market share gains in both Trade and DIY. Cost initiatives have included a strong focus on all business expenditure, particularly labour, where there has already been a material reduction in hours. The Hardware business remains ideally positioned to capitalise on any increase in market activity levels.

"All the Company’s recent acquisitions are performing as expected and remain on track for delivering targeted synergies
."

Screenshot_20241025_112746_CommSec.jpg

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"To fall over a cliff once may be regarded as a misfortune; to fall twice looks like carelessness."
 
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Weak weekly chart (not showing today's drop).
Watch for prospective candle suggesting possibility of rally?

Support just below 3.50 decisively broken. This (3.50) is also 'point of control', an idea I got from following Murray Dawes vids. Oscillating around that point should take it lower? I'm expecting $3 and then a good chance 2.75 but chart should guide

Interested in picking up a few for a maiden investment, but in this climate only if it gets nice and negative. I value it higher than current price with median ROE around ~15% and higher in recent years, book value $1.39 and screw Goldman's analyst. Does detract that debt is fairly high and it is acquisitive and trying to compete in hardware - we just had one move into our country town and it is competing with a Bunnings 40m drive away.

Not Held

WEEKLY not showing today
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Market Matters afternoon report.
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  • Metcash (MTS) -3.33% said their hardware division was struggling, and 1H25 group profit should be in the range of $132-135m, about 7% below current consensus. The stock was sold off prior to todays update following a Goldmans downgrade, which in hindsight, was spot on. Consensus downgrades to flow given consensus for the FY was $300m profit.
 
Market Matters afternoon report
  • Metcash (MTS) –2.51% down again today on revised price targets from Citigroup, Macquarie and Jefferies to $3.40, $3.45 and $3.40 respectively. On the positive side, they announced a 5-year contract extension with key client Drakes, a QLD supermarket chain which contributed $222m to MTS sales revenue in FY24.
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Market Matters afternoon report
  • Metcash (MTS) –2.51% down again today on revised price targets from Citigroup, Macquarie and Jefferies to $3.40, $3.45 and $3.40 respectively. On the positive side, they announced a 5-year contract extension with key client Drakes, a QLD supermarket chain which contributed $222m to MTS sales revenue in FY24.
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have an order in for extra sub $3 ( where i really wanted to be for the initial re-entry )

from memory this one suffers from long downtrends , tread carefully

( i will try to get it correct this time )
 
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