Australian property crash

[gfresh]

One quarter doth not maketh a recovery, just as one negative quarter doth not maketh a crash

Christopher Joyce also a little biased in his assessment due to his position. Drawing the inevitable comparisons to the stock market is a pretty poor argument - more spruiking than anything else. He may as well just come out and say "put all your wealth all into property, don't put it all into that risky sharemarket"... the usual perspective to be found at the bottom of major market corrections I imagine throughout recent times.

A lot do now seem to be waiting "until post June 30th", in fact anecdotally more so than those not trying to get in at the last minute for the FHOG, so if everybody does stay true to there word there is still going to be plenty of momentum carried across into July/August/September..

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Good ol economists - it's good that there's going to be another second half recovery

The Australian house-price index fell 2.2 per cent in the March quarter, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Monday.
This compares with a downwardly revised 1.2 per cent fall in the December quarter.
In the year to March, the house-price index fell 6.7 per cent.
Economists had forecasted house prices would remain flat in the March quarter and have declined by 3.9 per cent in the 12 months to March 31.

You sorta need a job to buy things, although Krudbank may make up the shortfall? Just not sure who's going to pay for it all though?

Job advertisements fell for the 12th straight month in April to remain at levels consistent with rising unemployment for the year ahead, a survey shows.
The ANZ survey found the total number of job ads in newspapers and on the internet fell 7.5 per cent in April, to an average of 136,770 per week.
Job ads also declined by 49.9 per cent over the year, suggesting total employment in Australia would contract over the year ahead.

 

[dhukka]

I guess the stabilization in Australian property prices started in the June quarter?

 

[Uncle Festivus]

I guess the stabilization in Australian property prices started in the June quarter?

There's a few Gunna markets going around - each one is gunna level off & then recommence it's upwards projection again. Still havn't heard how or who is going to pay for it all?

Has Rudd locked himself in to the FHOG? So the 'stabilisation' could be a lot worse if/when it's taken away. We'll need a lot more suckers, sorry, investors to keep buying houses to take up the slack?

 

[Quincy]

Has Rudd locked himself in to the FHOG? So the 'stabilisation' could be a lot worse if/when it's taken away. We'll need a lot more suckers, sorry, investors to keep buying houses to take up the slack?

I posted this on the "house prices to keep rising for years" thread

If the government reduces the first home buyers' grant at the same time as forcing banks to tighten lending standards, the lower end of the housing market will face dramatic devaluations"

Article by Robert Gottliebsen, "Business Spectator" - see HERE

I think this is what Mr. Burns has been saying.

 

[MrBurns]

I posted this on the "house prices to keep rising for years" thread

I think this is what Mr. Burns has been saying.

Correct and Rudd has painted himself into a corner, smart **** that he is , he'll probably try to blame Forrest Gump (Swany)

Irony is the more he tries to levitate the market the worse the crash will be.

 

[Stan 101]

Even so, will there be reduced spending on homes/renovations? I believe so, credit crunch; tightening of household expenditure and unemployment will affect people to the point of defaulting on mortgages.

Gillie, just looking at building data (only have up to Decmber 08 with me) and renovations peaked at about $31 billion in June 08 seasonally adjusted. December 08 had a mild dip. It will be interesting to see in the coming months.

One interesting point to note was that consumer sentiment regarding home purchase is at the highest since December 2001.

The 07/08 forecasts for residential starts was downgraded to 128,000 nationwide and actuals are tracking this projection.

The interesting thing is that Victoria has weathered this downturn well. Queensland is 40% down followed by WA and NSW which continues to be a basketcase.


On another note, I just got back from OS and have picked up a couple of houses in the local area One about 3km from the CBD and the other about 6km away. One tenanted and the other a failed reno. Both picked up well under market value and both are unique. There will always be buying opportunities regardless of conditions.

I'm thinking about starting a post/blog on the reno with scheduling, costs and before and after photos. I might do it on the property forum. I tend to keep notes on previous renos but have never bothered to write them up.
Would this sort of thing be useful to anyone?

 

[MACCA350]

I'm thinking about starting a post/blog on the reno with scheduling, costs and before and after photos. I might do it on the property forum. I tend to keep notes on previous renos but have never bothered to write them up.
Would this sort of thing be useful to anyone?

Would certainly be an interesting read, especially if you added your thoughts and reasoning behind different decisions as you go

cheers

 

[Stan 101]

Would certainly be an interesting read, especially if you added your thoughts and reasoning behind different decisions as you go

cheers

Cheers, MACCA. Yep I was thinking along the lines of what you mentioned. This reno actually needs some structural works (floor bearers, posts and external loadbearing walls) so it is not just a splash of paint and done.
I was thinking it might be a good idea to give people an insight to a more complex rectification and renovation. I'll be sure to note reasoning behind decisions made and the ordering of the scheduling and what I'll choose to leave "untouched" to give me a selling point to a "paint and flip" buyer.

cheers,

 

[Gundini]

I'm thinking about starting a post/blog on the reno with scheduling, costs and before and after photos. I might do it on the property forum. I tend to keep notes on previous renos but have never bothered to write them up.
Would this sort of thing be useful to anyone?

I'd be very interested too Stan 101...

I am definately a novice at the reno game. Also think that tradesmen will be a little cheaper and more available once this downturn start to bite.

One thing though, I would prefer that you started the thread on this forum as I am more interested in shares at the moment and don't visit the property forum as much for now, much to Joe's chargrin I imagine...