MTS - Metcash Limited

[UMike]

Re: MTS - Metcash

Yea the desicion to suspend the payment of dividends did hit me a bit.

Been buying back in just over $1 and selling $1.15 twice now pairing back my losses. as I am sure the floor is $1.02.

Might be a long road back but it seems the 3 big fod stores are bouncing a bit.

 

[notting]

Re: MTS - Metcash

If they conserve cash it will make the perfect private equity target or a frightening stage entrance for something like LIDL. Fingers crossed for you.

 

[UMike]

Re: MTS - Metcash

Thanks notting.

Been real patient although I missed buying in again at around the 95c mark (charts say the low was 96c but I'm sure the intra day price was less. (I had a "will buy at" limit set that I didn't act on)) I have sold most of my holdings today. $1.41

Dunno how I got out of this one so well. Really from 21-9-15 to now 16-10-15 there has been a 50% retracement.

I learned my lesson and made a bit as well.

 

[notting]

Re: MTS - Metcash

Since short covering rallies are the focus of the day.
This one seems to have run out of puff for the moment.

 

[UMike]

Re: MTS - Metcash

Thanks notting.

Been real patient although I missed buying in again at around the 95c mark (charts say the low was 96c but I'm sure the intra day price was less. (I had a "will buy at" limit set that I didn't act on)) I have sold most of my holdings today. $1.41

Dunno how I got out of this one so well. Really from 21-9-15 to now 16-10-15 there has been a 50% retracement.

I learned my lesson and made a bit as well.

Totally out now....

I'd love to say I'll never buy back into a debt ridden baket case But I took a small punt in MesoBlast.... Maybe I'll never learn.

Good Luck MTS holders. I still like my little local Foodworks store over the Major Ones.

 

[notting]

Re: MTS - Metcash

Whilst I think its good that metcash is now trying to be price competitive in its supermarkets. This break out rally on the back of Masters writing itself off seems somewhat questionable since Masters has been such a monumental failure, that never laid glove on Bunnings or anybody else, what does difference it make to anything?

 

[notting]

Re: MTS - Metcash

The other thing to be, well alarmed about with this one, is that it also bought the Mitre 10 Franchise because WOW started up the Masters disaster. The CEO at the time said, something along the lines of well it seems to be what your meant to do because others are doing it!!! :bonk:
Yeah that's how you make innovative and shrewd business decisions.

I guess it could have bee a fluke as at least Mitre 10 had a business that was not losing a fortune, but I doubt whether it was a smart buy!

 

[notting]

Re: MTS - Metcash

Loading up the truck to take a huge dump on this as soon as this break out breaks down!
It's about as compelling as Dick Smith!

 

[joeno]

Re: MTS - Metcash

Loading up the truck to take a huge dump on this as soon as this break out breaks down!
It's about as compelling as Dick Smith!

Why do you say that? Metcash is looking pretty compelling to me from a fundamentals point of view

 

[notting]

Re: MTS - Metcash

Why do you say that? Metcash is looking pretty compelling to me from a fundamentals point of view

What fundamentals would they be exactly?
Nice looking fake out today so far!!!
Failing to power on after yesterdays break, ran up at the start then got destroyed.
Pretty keen selling down to 1.92 so far!!
Traders probably moving their long stops to 1.85 after that.
It tested that break 4 times over the last six months so it would be suprising to see it break down, unless they all start looking at reality.
Remembering they bought Mitre 10 at the time WOW embarked on it's legendary Masters venture. The reason they gave was something like, "Well it seems like the thing to be getting into." :headshake Now that's leadership!!

 

[joeno]

Re: MTS - Metcash

What fundamentals would they be exactly?
Nice looking fake out today so far!!!
Failing to power on after yesterdays break, ran up at the start then got destroyed.
Pretty keen selling down to 1.92 so far!!
Traders probably moving their long stops to 1.85 after that.

What's your price target then if you hold this share? I admit recent few days rally has been a surprise. However it's a big earner revenues through the roof.

 

[notting]

Re: MTS - Metcash

What's your price target then if you hold this share? I admit recent few days rally has been a surprise. However it's a big earner revenues through the roof.

I'm not short them yet. Longer term 80c

 

[notting]

Traders vs Big seller

Quite the odd way to achieve a higher high ----

 

[joeno]

Traders vs Big seller

Quite the odd way to achieve a higher high ----

So much for your conviction that it's heading to 80c... oh great fortune teller.

 

[notting]

So much for your conviction that it's heading to 80c... oh great fortune teller.

Get a brain!
If I had conviction I would be short it. I have actually still a small long on it. Simply because of the way it has been trading.
Today it got a boost from a broker upgrade which again ran into fat sellers!
Whilst I think it will get to 80, then I will be looking for 40c doesn't stop me from going long when the half wits believe it and brokers promote it like they did Dick Smith.......

 

[skc]

Traders vs Big seller

Quite the odd way to achieve a higher high ----

Yes those quick random dumps were nasty. Took me the 3rd time to actually scope some up... but then I sold a lot at the $2 resistance so by the time it got up to $2.06 I only had about 1/5 left. Came back a bit into close but still finished reasonably high in the range and has been on a tear since WOW's quarterly sales.

Yeah it was CS who upgraded the stock... it's a heavily shorted names so the spike is not unexpected. The analyst report was drawing some pretty long bow though (like bad sales at WOW implies stronger sales at MTS - I am not so sure...).

 

[joeno]

Yes those quick random dumps were nasty. Took me the 3rd time to actually scope some up... but then I sold a lot at the $2 resistance so by the time it got up to $2.06 I only had about 1/5 left. Came back a bit into close but still finished reasonably high in the range and has been on a tear since WOW's quarterly sales.

Yeah it was CS who upgraded the stock... it's a heavily shorted names so the spike is not unexpected. The analyst report was drawing some pretty long bow though (like bad sales at WOW implies stronger sales at MTS - I am not so sure...).

Are we of the opinion that this stock is peaking? It seems to still be solid in terms of profitability and sheer revenues. But seems to be caught in the whole "supermarket stocks are tanking and you should sell" drama.

 

[notting]

Yes those quick random dumps were nasty. Took me the 3rd time to actually scope some up... but then I sold a lot at the $2 resistance so by the time it got up to $2.06 I only had about 1/5 left. Came back a bit into close but still finished reasonably high in the range and has been on a tear since WOW's quarterly sales.

Yeah it was CS who upgraded the stock... it's a heavily shorted names so the spike is not unexpected. The analyst report was drawing some pretty long bow though (like bad sales at WOW implies stronger sales at MTS - I am not so sure...).

I actually tried to offload at 2.06 but it didn't get filled.
WOWs quarterly sales will be going to Aldi not MTS which is a trend that is only going to eat away at everyone's margins!

 

[notting]

Waiting waiting waiting.
I mean seriously -

Discounter Aldi is now Australia's most profitable supermarket retailer and is set to reach "tipping point", grabbing a bigger share of the main grocery shop and significantly disrupting the Coles and Woolworths duopoly.

According to a major report by UBS, Aldi's sales are expected to grow 15 per cent a year for the next three years – four or five times the rate of grocery market growth – reaching at least $10.6 billion and as much as $14.8 billion by 2019 if the discounter fixes perceived problems such as customer service and the quality of its fresh food.

UBS analyst Ben Gilbert expects Aldi's share of the national grocery market to rise from 7 per cent to at least 10 per cent by 2019-20, taking at least $1 billion in combined sales each year from Woolworths, Metcash and Coles

 

[joeno]

Time to dump?