MTS - Metcash Limited

[So_Cynical]

Re: MTS - Metcash

I too like the business model, but the reasons I have posted above I feel the market is no too impressed, perhaps when the Franklins case is adjourned I'll take another peak.

This is a simple little business dispute and probably nothing will come of it...at least that's Metcashes view according to this announcement from last year.

Metcash is firmly of the view that there will be no material financial consequences arising from the decision

The announcment explains Metcashes position..makes sense to me.

http://www.metcash.com/site_files/s...ies_position_regarding_Franklins_judgment.pdf

 

[Julia]

Re: MTS - Metcash

MTS at its current SP just looks like good buying to me, well its about where i would want to be buying in, at this point in time...although easy to think that with there SP action history i mite get stuck in this trade for quiet a while waiting for my 14% profit target to get hit.

Is there any particular reason for your profit target to be 14%, So Cynical?
Do you use this, or a similar level of profit, across your p/f to exit?

 

[So_Cynical]

Re: MTS - Metcash

Is there any particular reason for your profit target to be 14%, So Cynical?
Do you use this, or a similar level of profit, across your p/f to exit?

14% to 16% is the ideal first exit as it gives me the ideal (in my mind) mix of approx 40% free carry and 60% of my money to go forward as a long term hold...also im aware that without a stop etc im vulnerable and always keen to exit the trade ASAP and reduce my risk and move on to the next stock, building my portfolio and dividend stream.

So a typical entry for me is 5k, planning to profit take once the SP has risen about 14 - 16% selling enough of the stock to return to me about 4K leaving 1K of my money (original capital) and the 14% profit which is about $700 ~ $800 so leaving me with a small holding of about $1800 value and 4K of my original 5K back to recycle into the next stock or re-entry.

That's what ive been doing over the last 12 months and have accumulated a nice little mix of stocks..on a few occasions the stock has continued to fall after my first entry so i would typically add another $1500 or $2000 once the SP has fallen about 12% and i would then use that as a new base for the whole position, and lower my target on the first trade to 11 or 12% to achieve a similar outcome. (for tax purposes keeping all the stock from the lower entry and selling the bulk of the first entry)

I don't use leverage or margin, and will, and have added to my holdings on dips using the same entry amount but only leaving 500 or so of my capital in on subsequent re-entry into a stock already held.

That's the guts of the money management side of my trading/investment plan...i know its far from perfect but have to say when coupled with my stock selection skills and this market we are in (sideways bear) im doing really well...my longer term goal is to build a P/F of mostly dividend paying stocks (almost finished) that i have established substantial free carry positions in ...i intend to let the next bull take care of the bulk of the capital growth side of things.

 

[Julia]

Re: MTS - Metcash

So you will exit when you have a profit of 14% - 16% even if the SP is still rising?

Seems like a lot of activity, chopping and changing, for a pretty small reward.

Do you ever just let your profit run on?

 

[So_Cynical]

Re: MTS - Metcash

So you will exit when you have a profit of 14% - 16% even if the SP is still rising?

Seems like a lot of activity, chopping and changing, for a pretty small reward.

Do you ever just let your profit run on?

I'm still exposed to the rising SP and the divis, and some of those stocks have gone on to more than double in value...the reward is somewhat small but when duplicated and added to with re-entry's it all adds up, keeping in mind im doing this because im not a millionaire....cos if i was id be on a Filipino beach getting a coconut oil work out not sitting in front of a screen.

Also while ill admit im a gambler..im very much a conservative, risk adverse gambler...as for letting my profits run, after a post of yours many months ago i decided to experiment with just that and turns out the next stock i brought was HDF @ 0.84 (now over 1.20) and im yet to take a profit from it and loving the dividend stream. Thanks Julia.

 

[JTLP]

Re: MTS - Metcash

Quick question ladies and gents:

What is the FF divi for MTS?

Also a thought...would MTS pursue a significant interest in Mitre 10 if they believed the Franklins debacle would be costly???

 

[So_Cynical]

Re: MTS - Metcash

Quick question ladies and gents:

What is the FF divi for MTS?

Also a thought...would MTS pursue a significant interest in Mitre 10 if they believed the Franklins debacle would be costly???

Hey JTLP

FF = Fully Franked so you add 30% to get the gross yield, and the Mitre 10 buy in is only 50 something million so not like its much money compared to the potential upside...the Franklin's thing is a nothing IMO.

I think ill kill my PRY buy order and have a go at MTS..i had a nice walk and a good think about it this afternoon and the more i think about MTS the more i like it.

 

[Julia]

Re: MTS - Metcash

I'm still exposed to the rising SP and the divis, and some of those stocks have gone on to more than double in value...the reward is somewhat small but when duplicated and added to with re-entry's it all adds up, keeping in mind im doing this because im not a millionaire....cos if i was id be on a Filipino beach getting a coconut oil work out not sitting in front of a screen.

Sure, but I guess we're discussing the best ways to get to sitting on that beach.

..as for letting my profits run, after a post of yours many months ago i decided to experiment with just that and turns out the next stock i brought was HDF @ 0.84 (now over 1.20) and im yet to take a profit from it and loving the dividend stream. Thanks Julia.

Nice to hear. When did you buy it at 0.84? Have just had a look at the chart and it's been there twice on the way up and once on the way down in the last year.

So do you think you might be on the way to being a convert to the "let your profits run" philosophy?

 

[JTLP]

Re: MTS - Metcash

Sure, but I guess we're discussing the best ways to get to sitting on that beach.


Nice to hear. When did you buy it at 0.84? Have just had a look at the chart and it's been there twice on the way up and once on the way down in the last year.

So do you think you might be on the way to being a convert to the "let your profits run" philosophy?

Julia probably not the best place to be asking but when do you know to sell your running profits? At first turn of price? Just curious!

Also So_Cynical; thanks for that info. Do you know how much the divi was last year?

 

[So_Cynical]

Re: MTS - Metcash

When did you buy it at 0.84? Have just had a look at the chart and it's been there twice on the way up and once on the way down in the last year.

The last dip in August

So do you think you might be on the way to being a convert to the "let your profits run" philosophy?

Now that my portfolio is about full, ill soon be just concentrating on re-entry's into my portfolio stocks so would make sense to lets the profits run a little.

Anyway back on thread topic...ive got a buy in on MTS @ 4.04 prob run away from me now.

Also So_Cynical; thanks for that info. Do you know how much the divi was last year?

The last 2 divis factored forward would be 0.325 Thirty two and a half cents gross per share, so at 4.05 that's a gross yield of around 8% if the divi holds at current levels..but it has gone up every year for the last 5 so :dunno:

 

[ers_6]

Re: MTS - Metcash

The last dip in August



Now that my portfolio is about full, ill soon be just concentrating on re-entry's into my portfolio stocks so would make sense to lets the profits run a little.

Anyway back on thread topic...ive got a buy in on MTS @ 4.04 prob run away from me now.



The last 2 divis factored forward would be 0.325 Thirty two and a half cents gross per share, so at 4.05 that's a gross yield of around 8% if the divi holds at current levels..but it has gone up every year for the last 5 so :dunno:

do you think the 4.04 is likely?
I bought in at 4.35 thinking a good trade and considering re-entry if it keeps going south.

such a strong company with good growth prospects i dont want to exit unless i need to.

 

[So_Cynical]

Re: MTS - Metcash

do you think the 4.04 is likely?
I bought in at 4.35 thinking a good trade and considering re-entry if it keeps going south.

such a strong company with good growth prospects i dont want to exit unless i need to.

Well on Monday and Tuesday i didn't get filled so moved on today after GNS fell further yesterday...Good luck to the MTS holders, its a bit of i shame i missed out on this at such a great price.

 

[lukelee]

Re: MTS - Metcash

Change in substantial holding - NAB
Does this news effect the price?
The price is 4:00 today. I think it is a good price to enter, what do you think?

 

[So_Cynical]

Re: MTS - Metcash

Change in substantial holding - NAB
Does this news effect the price?
The price is 4:00 today. I think it is a good price to enter, what do you think?

$4 is better than $4.10 or $4.30 but then some are scared of a falling or stagnant SP...when pretty much the whole market has fallen the bargain hunters are spoil for choice so stocks like MTS can and do get passed over.

Personally i think Cosco can hurt Metcash a little in Melb and Syd, plus there's probably not much organic growth potential in other areas...on the upside not much opposition outside of Melb and Syd and high barriers to new entry's and the new Mitre10 deal.

MTS has slipped to 3 or 4 on my buy list.

 

[lukelee]

Re: MTS - Metcash

Thanks, but why does MTS pay out almost all of its profits to shareholders? MTS has a really good dividend

 

[TheBull]

Re: MTS - Metcash

2010 results are out nice little result IMHO. FF Div of 15c, EBITDA, Rev, NPAT all up with 2011 outlook quite positive as well.

Can't post the ASX link as I am such a newb and I do not have 5 posts yet..

I am a holder of MTS.

 

[lukelee]

Re: MTS - Metcash

On the recent 2010 preliminary final results, the revenue is $11,608.1, the Cost of sales is $10,435.3, it is almost 90%, why it is so high? woolworth is only 74%. where is all the money going?

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Re: MTS - Metcash

Just wondering what the main fundamental threats to MTS are. How do these threats affect the performance of the business and the result on share price historically?
I note technically it is popping up today.

 

[Mofra]

Re: MTS - Metcash

On the recent 2010 preliminary final results, the revenue is $11,608.1, the Cost of sales is $10,435.3, it is almost 90%, why it is so high? woolworth is only 74%. where is all the money going?

COS/COGS isn't the best measure to determine effective management IMO - it is merely the accounting practice of adding the inventory value at the beginning of the reporting period (RP) to the cost of inventory acquired during the RP and taking off the value of inventory at the end of the reporting period.
Could be anything added into COGS including orders brought forward due to pricing issues (bargains!). I hold WOW & WES and am looking at MTS for a LT purchase.

11 straight years of increased profits means it wont be a bolter but should reward the patient investor over time.

 

[ck13488]

Re: MTS - Metcash

does anyone have any reasons for the gains since the start of the month?
up ~5% this month while the asx200 has been flat.

all i can find is this reference which gives little insight/info, seems to me like a broad assumption
"Shares in Australian grocery and liquor wholesaler Metcash Ltd. (AU:MTS 4.53, +0.02, +0.44%) rose as investors sought to uncover additional potential targets amid heightened buyout activity" market watch

i bought this stock before i knew how little i know