Not much activity on this thread so perhaps time for an update.
The Board don't give much to go on. A few motherhood statements and graphs I find misleading. Perhaps they don't know - in the absence of any kind of intelligent update on where they are at in terms of the leading question, how long to break even, this is my view.
The last forecast of any kind was given by Canaccord. They were pretty consistent from the outset that breakeven would be around 35,000 active users. Good punt because a couple of years on, I think that still looks like being the case.
I ran a scenario whereby costs remain fixed at $2751k per qtr as per their last announcement, active users grow by 2000 per qtr and revenue per active user grows at 15% per qtr, which is conservative based on what they are currently achieving but it will get harder to sustain that in my view, unless the weight of new users supports it.
I hasten to say I have no knowledge other than what the Board discloses publicly and they may have some operating plan to increase costs, revenues may grow quicker or they could lose a client, but based on a steady as she goes situation and the assumptions above, the breakeven is towards the tail end of 2017/18.
At 5% growth in revenue per active user the breakeven gets pushed out to the tail end of 2018/19.
In either situation some call on further capital is going to be needed and at current share prices I'd say there are at least a few shareholders that share my view. At 6.3C today a capital raise in the mid 5's would be reasonable, unless they do it off market with someone that really wants a chunk of the "action" badly enough to pay more than the market price.
I emphasise - this is my view and my view alone. Run your own number and assumptions based on the last 2-3 announcements and I'd be interested to know what anyone thinks.