- Joined
- 27 June 2010
- Posts
- 4,147
- Reactions
- 309
On December 15th, 2014, Mint Wireless Limited changed its name to Mint Payments Limited.
MNW - Mint Payments
- Thread starter piggybank
- Start date
- Joined
- 2 May 2007
- Posts
- 4,689
- Reactions
- 2,902
MNW shot up by more than 38% today
pixel
DIY Trader
- Joined
- 3 February 2010
- Posts
- 5,359
- Reactions
- 344
knee-jerk reaction IMHO
but increasing support could be justified as the cooperation with RXH announced this morning may well turn out a company-maker.
I hold a position in my IT portfolio.
- Joined
- 2 May 2007
- Posts
- 4,689
- Reactions
- 2,902
Agreed with your observation Pixel.
I took a position with RXH than MNW this morning. Ironically RXH dropped lower.
Cheers
pixel
DIY Trader
- Joined
- 3 February 2010
- Posts
- 5,359
- Reactions
- 344
I had not kept the Mint in my portfolio, but got stopped out. Made another brief trade in July.
However, I kept it in my watch list and did not miss this morning's announcement: http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=01694946
Jumped on early and took profit early where I saw resistance (7.9c). When resistance was broken, I immediately got back on (8c) and rode the rally up to the Closing Auction - with half a dozen smallish Intraday swing trades along the way.
Some positive news on back of real commercialisation now. I am still holding and clearly the new board is expecting share price to creep up again on back of recent announcements. The next qtly announcement will be interesting in terms of ramp up and timing of breakeven.
Not much activity on this thread so perhaps time for an update.
The Board don't give much to go on. A few motherhood statements and graphs I find misleading. Perhaps they don't know - in the absence of any kind of intelligent update on where they are at in terms of the leading question, how long to break even, this is my view.
The last forecast of any kind was given by Canaccord. They were pretty consistent from the outset that breakeven would be around 35,000 active users. Good punt because a couple of years on, I think that still looks like being the case.
I ran a scenario whereby costs remain fixed at $2751k per qtr as per their last announcement, active users grow by 2000 per qtr and revenue per active user grows at 15% per qtr, which is conservative based on what they are currently achieving but it will get harder to sustain that in my view, unless the weight of new users supports it.
I hasten to say I have no knowledge other than what the Board discloses publicly and they may have some operating plan to increase costs, revenues may grow quicker or they could lose a client, but based on a steady as she goes situation and the assumptions above, the breakeven is towards the tail end of 2017/18.
At 5% growth in revenue per active user the breakeven gets pushed out to the tail end of 2018/19.
In either situation some call on further capital is going to be needed and at current share prices I'd say there are at least a few shareholders that share my view. At 6.3C today a capital raise in the mid 5's would be reasonable, unless they do it off market with someone that really wants a chunk of the "action" badly enough to pay more than the market price.
I emphasise - this is my view and my view alone. Run your own number and assumptions based on the last 2-3 announcements and I'd be interested to know what anyone thinks.
The Board don't give much to go on. A few motherhood statements and graphs I find misleading. Perhaps they don't know - in the absence of any kind of intelligent update on where they are at in terms of the leading question, how long to break even, this is my view.
The last forecast of any kind was given by Canaccord. They were pretty consistent from the outset that breakeven would be around 35,000 active users. Good punt because a couple of years on, I think that still looks like being the case.
I ran a scenario whereby costs remain fixed at $2751k per qtr as per their last announcement, active users grow by 2000 per qtr and revenue per active user grows at 15% per qtr, which is conservative based on what they are currently achieving but it will get harder to sustain that in my view, unless the weight of new users supports it.
I hasten to say I have no knowledge other than what the Board discloses publicly and they may have some operating plan to increase costs, revenues may grow quicker or they could lose a client, but based on a steady as she goes situation and the assumptions above, the breakeven is towards the tail end of 2017/18.
At 5% growth in revenue per active user the breakeven gets pushed out to the tail end of 2018/19.
In either situation some call on further capital is going to be needed and at current share prices I'd say there are at least a few shareholders that share my view. At 6.3C today a capital raise in the mid 5's would be reasonable, unless they do it off market with someone that really wants a chunk of the "action" badly enough to pay more than the market price.
I emphasise - this is my view and my view alone. Run your own number and assumptions based on the last 2-3 announcements and I'd be interested to know what anyone thinks.
So_Cynical
The Contrarian Averager
- Joined
- 31 August 2007
- Posts
- 7,464
- Reactions
- 1,463
Re: MNW - Mint Wireless
3 years later and all these stocks have been hammered, some more than others but hammered none the less.
3 years later and all these stocks have been hammered, some more than others but hammered none the less.
Re: MNW - Mint Wireless
Next buyer is at 5.9C this morning - I'd imagine there are few more punters starting to realise the Board really do believe in fairies at the end of garden. Any general offering or rights is probably going to have to happen in the 4's at that rate and I for one wont be funding the salaries of the Directors. I'll leave that to some other mug punter. One has to wonder if they will hook up with a couple of the larger shareholders and take back off market for a while - then bring back again in a year or so although I can hardly imagine that would go down well in such a highly regulated market. Goes to show however what happens when the Directors of a company forget who they are there to represent and fail to keep the shareholders and market properly informed. Anyone would think its their company - not the shareholders.
Next buyer is at 5.9C this morning - I'd imagine there are few more punters starting to realise the Board really do believe in fairies at the end of garden. Any general offering or rights is probably going to have to happen in the 4's at that rate and I for one wont be funding the salaries of the Directors. I'll leave that to some other mug punter. One has to wonder if they will hook up with a couple of the larger shareholders and take back off market for a while - then bring back again in a year or so although I can hardly imagine that would go down well in such a highly regulated market. Goes to show however what happens when the Directors of a company forget who they are there to represent and fail to keep the shareholders and market properly informed. Anyone would think its their company - not the shareholders.
- Joined
- 27 June 2010
- Posts
- 4,147
- Reactions
- 309
On September 21st, 2020, Mint Payments Limited (MNW) was removed from the ASX's Official List in accordance with Listing Rule 17.11, after security holders resolved to remove MNW from the Official List.
Similar threads
