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MFG - Magellan Financial Group

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US billionaire investor Ray Dalio doesn't always get it right either. Caught by surprise in the 2020 covid crash, he lost $ US 12 Billion.
The former co-chief investment officer of the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater has had mixed results of late. ( China's Alibaba )
One of Bridgewaters funds only returned 1.6 % annually over a ten year period.
One thing he has been consistently right about is the need to diversify. Always.
 
dyna said:
US billionaire investor Ray Dalio doesn't always get it right either. Caught by surprise in the 2020 covid crash, he lost $ US 12 Billion.
The former co-chief investment officer of the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater has had mixed results of late. ( China's Alibaba )
Click to expand...
Ray is super bullish China so that must of cost him a bit over the last 2 years.
 
So_Cynical said:
Ray is super bullish China so that must of cost him a bit over the last 2 years.
Click to expand...
yes i was surprised by that , ( being super-bullish on China ) i thought he may have cooled down to simply bullish for a while but maybe he can see China getting a second wind in the coming 5 years ( and maybe he has some very juicy positions , as well )

i am still preferring India and Vietnam , and would add Korea if it started more towards unification ( which i suspect would be very painful , but probably productive .. think Germany after the Berlin Wall fell )

the virus didn't catch me as badly as some , i was already very nervous over Repo-Madness , so was preparing for 'something ' ( i was more expecting a credit crunch ) i was looking at the wrong places but at least i wasn't sipping champers and gazing at the moon
 
charlsie said:
Sorry to redact most of your comment divs... though can you imagine how prosperous our country will be if the urbanisation of India could become a reality? Moving the country through the stages will take a long time and our children would receive the most benefit i think.
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Hello @charlsie
Would you please elaborate your comments a bit further to understand a bit more to understand it better by a country miner?
 
Miner said:
Hello @charlsie
Would you please elaborate your comments a bit further to understand a bit more to understand it better by a country miner?
Click to expand...
Absolutely Miner. The way I see it, is that India is a number of years behind China in the growth of the economy. A lot of the work they do is still manual labour as opposed to mechanisation of the labour force. This impedes the growth of the country as a whole. When the country begins to lift itself (as china has in the last 30 years) more money becomes available and Australia being on good political terms as well as having a large Indian population just has to benefit from their growth, be it food, agricultural product, mined products, more education and anything else we can supply.
I have an over simplified idea of it all, but that how it looks to me. I just have to think back to before China got the 2008 Olympic games and the price of copper. Since then, a lot of what i have thought about was who would be next. I think india will be
 
charlsie said:
Absolutely Miner. The way I see it, is that India is a number of years behind China in the growth of the economy. A lot of the work they do is still manual labour as opposed to mechanisation of the labour force. This impedes the growth of the country as a whole. When the country begins to lift itself (as china has in the last 30 years) more money becomes available and Australia being on good political terms as well as having a large Indian population just has to benefit from their growth, be it food, agricultural product, mined products, more education and anything else we can supply.
I have an over simplified idea of it all, but that how it looks to me. I just have to think back to before China got the 2008 Olympic games and the price of copper. Since then, a lot of what i have thought about was who would be next. I think india will be
Click to expand...
@charlsie
I agree with your conceptual basis and that is the first step to develop further work. You are 100% right here.
Some icing on the cake - Both India and China are going ahead with rest of the world but you forgot to include Vietnam who are a sleeping giant and currently no political threat to rest of the world.

China has an additional advantage being a dictatorial regime -if people do not listen to the chair then they can be made to listen. Whereas India being a democratic country - that option is not feasible. Some times dictatorial ship help - just a current example - taking jab or not taking the jab. If we were in Saudi Arabia or China and government wants us to have a jab- then personal choice is just not there. Compulsory military training as in Singapore.
India has few advantages over China - there is a transparent system however corruption level there. System does work with or without bribery. The level of education and technology is at every corner to provide multiplying effect. Age demography - large part of 1.3 billion is below 45 years age. That gives a long yard to grow unlike Australia. GDP - expected 8%. India has its core industry and planning (used to be 5 years planning (does not exist in Australia ) and now defunct.
India however suffers significantly on defense side - so more China lays hands of friendship with disturbed border states of India meaning India will put more budgetary allocation on defense and disturbed to take a better leverage of the planned progress. Bla Bla.
Returning on MFG - Indian banking system and FUM by the banking institutions are massive.
 
charlsie said:
Sorry to redact most of your comment divs... though can you imagine how prosperous our country will be if the urbanisation of India could become a reality? Moving the country through the stages will take a long time and our children would receive the most benefit i think.
Click to expand...
do either of these nations need an increase in urbanization ( India or Vietnam ) , i think one lesson found during the virus outbreak , is some tasks can be handled from remote locations if the telecommunications is up to the task , now the MIX of the city dwellers might change ( more blue-collar and shop workers , less office workers and execs , and educators ) remember there is a trend to a more automated workforce , although i don't expect India to be a big mover in that direction in the next ten years

with India i am thinking relieving logistics bottlenecks as the major leap forward and maybe an improved power grid as well
 
divs4ever said:
do either of these nations need an increase in urbanization ( India or Vietnam ) , i think one lesson found during the virus outbreak , is some tasks can be handled from remote locations if the telecommunications is up to the task , now the MIX of the city dwellers might change ( more blue-collar and shop workers , less office workers and execs , and educators ) remember there is a trend to a more automated workforce , although i don't expect India to be a big mover in that direction in the next ten years

with India i am thinking relieving logistics bottlenecks as the major leap forward and maybe an improved power grid as well
Click to expand...
"with India i am thinking relieving logistics bottlenecks as the major leap forward and maybe an improved power grid as well"
India as it was pre 2000 and now has changed heaps.
Some logistics - largest railway infrastructure in the world; broad gauge railway (Australia has none) - not been to Vietnam - so dunno.
Road - back in 1992- 250 kms road travel took some 12 hours due to very poor road condition. Today, 2000 km travelled in 12 hours. People often opt for plane or road (without being delayed due to cancellation ) than railway to commute.
Underground rail - better than London UG. Just Google about Delhi latest metro rail.
1 billion people got vaccinated due to improved logistics in record time even if India was sleeping for long time to wake up to protect COVID.
There are still rural areas which lacks logistics but population coverage and small geographic area, if we take pc it is negligible.
Telephone SIM cards - 2 to 3 SIM on same phone set is common.
Of course the pollution level is the highest too :) .
 
there are enough clever people in India to fix the problems however they will not be fixed next week , which gives India a realistic growth potential , whereas China should be slowing it's growth ( to around 5% for a while )

now my attempts to get exposure to that Chinese growth were very mixed , i am hoping for a better result in seeking exposure to India .

i take pollution as an indicator of productivity ( the EU used to have a pollution problem , but look at it now )
 
charlsie said:
Sorry to redact most of your comment divs... though can you imagine how prosperous our country will be if the urbanisation of India could become a reality? Moving the country through the stages will take a long time and our children would receive the most benefit i think.
Click to expand...
Agree - India is a democracy and the states have a lot of power, going to take a lot of time for India to urbanise, long play.
 
Impressive day today for MFG with an immediate break back above $20. Daily candle pair: tweezer bottom or bullish engulfing? But at a precarious level on a long term chart.

From James Gerrish on Livewire:

"Magellan (MFG) +6.74% also rallied although this is a stock we bought at higher levels and at ~$20.60 we still have some way to go, but the mkt has turned too bearish we think and we’ll continue to hold our nerve here. I was told many moons ago to back intelligence and despite Hamish Douglas having his back to the wall I still think this is intact"

3 Mth Daily
big (54).gif
 
Hamish has gone home to pull the covers over his head - that'd be my solution too. He might not have made the decision unassisted to take leave on health grounds I guess.
FUM down another A$2B and that's with a tailwind of a lower AUD to prior month. Unlike PTM's more helpful updates Magellan dont tell us in the brief whether funds have been net outflowing.

Screenshot_20220207-093847_Drive.jpg
 
Chris Mackay is taking the reins. He was there at the outset, before hiving off to run MFF. once called the Flagship Fund LIC but now named MFF Capital Investments Limited (to create a bit of distance from Global Fund)

Mackay oversee the portfolio management of Magellan’s global equity mandates. Nikki Thomas, a portfolio manager who left the firm in 2017 as part of a restructure, will also return as co-portfolio manager.
 
Big ouch... dropping > 10% and now about $16.50 ........... the lowest since the start of 2015.

The commentary run by Mackay in MFF (as a LIC it reports NTA monthly and does a Quarterly overview) is is quite bearish

"For some time in prevailing market and interest rate conditions, we have had a primary focus on seeking to avoid major permanent losses of capital, and this continues. MFF’s reinvestment of proceeds built up in the early stages of COVID focussed upon higher probability positive outcomes in markets that we considered lacked quality bargains comparable to those available during and after the GFC. A decent proportion of our Covid purchases have now been unwound profitably. Going forward, we hope for better quality bargains. Nevertheless, our buying in January was concentrated on quality, profitable, growing, core company holdings at prices we perceived to be satisfactory rather than bargains. Our portfolio and capital structure allow us to fund purchases from previous, current and future sales of non core holdings, and from other capital resources. We continue to look for market prices which enable such sales to provide funding for future better quality, better value purchases, at the cost of regular tax payments and the cost of cash balances and/or an underutilised balance sheet."


and from the AFR
It will also be fascinating to see if there are big changes to Magellan’s portfolio under Mackay. A comparison of MFF’s top holdings with those in Magellan’s flagship Global Fund shows several key common holdings, including Visa, Microsoft, Meta Platforms (formerly known as Facebook) and Alphabet (Google’s parent company). But there are key differences, too. Mackay’s portfolio has steered well away from China, whereas Douglass has been an avid proponent of the market’s potential - albeit with decidedly mixed results.
Click to expand...
 
Dona Ferentes said:
Big ouch... dropping > 10% and now about $16.50 ........... the lowest since the start of 2015.

The commentary run by Mackay in MFF (as a LIC it reports NTA monthly and does a Quarterly overview) is is quite bearish

"For some time in prevailing market and interest rate conditions, we have had a primary focus on seeking to avoid major permanent losses of capital, and this continues. MFF’s reinvestment of proceeds built up in the early stages of COVID focussed upon higher probability positive outcomes in markets that we considered lacked quality bargains comparable to those available during and after the GFC. A decent proportion of our Covid purchases have now been unwound profitably. Going forward, we hope for better quality bargains. Nevertheless, our buying in January was concentrated on quality, profitable, growing, core company holdings at prices we perceived to be satisfactory rather than bargains. Our portfolio and capital structure allow us to fund purchases from previous, current and future sales of non core holdings, and from other capital resources. We continue to look for market prices which enable such sales to provide funding for future better quality, better value purchases, at the cost of regular tax payments and the cost of cash balances and/or an underutilised balance sheet."


and from the AFR
Click to expand...
A very apt commentary from both sources.

The market tends to overestimate the qualities of aesthete gurus on the way up but punishes them severely when in the cold light of day they sit defeated in oversized RMWilliams boots.

Sentiment is at work. Never stand in the way of sentiment.

gg
 
am almost tempted to reach for the calculator here ( to work out an attractive price )

i already hold rivals , PDL ( 'free-carried ) , EQT ( 'free-carried ' ) JHG and a few lesser known ones , and am wondering if i add some MFG whether i will be overweight in the sector , but goodness me , for the brave there have been some cherries to pick in the last decade

DYOR
 

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