Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

MFG - Magellan Financial Group

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Stock has popped into (almost ATH) after reporting today. I actually had a buy order in to buy this one for a week or so but pulled it after the recent pull back.

Looks good now
 
Whoops and there she blows.

$40- and this was a $1- float with associated goodies in the form of options. And then more options.

Whilst a fan for a long time, and its been a case of the options actually trading at under 10 cents in the GFC and being exercised at expiry at $20 plus, like most good things, like say CSL ... they get little if any attention.

Right now 70 plus billion funds under management. The funds have added value ... ADDED ... to investors over what is now over 10 years. A rare thing, after costs, that the investor ends up ahead. Yep the owners and managers of course do, but an example of how it should be done.

Here, now ... its again running ahead of the earnings, but whats new. A lot of talk of something in the wind, which has not emerged as yet.

Just having had a look at their listed version of the fund, and prefer a lessor reliance upon tech side than they have right now. A few reasons for this, but the worlds largest non payers of tax, are 80% of the top 5 holdings. Sure, great investment, not suggesting ethical investing, but massive changes from nations to get Google, Apple and Microsoft and Facebook and a few others to PAY tax where they earn it.

USA in the meantime, cut funding to the tax office ... the IRS ... Internal Revenue service ... by 30% , audits have fallen 40% and legal cases .... NONE ... zero down 100% under Trump. Of course with 21% tax now, corporate verses 35% the revenue fell. The expected money as they gave amnesty to stealing tax from Australia and others, DID not occur. These companies only brought back to the USA a mere 20% of the loot, this despite a now new special LOW tax rate for overseas profits and NON paid tax in the rest of the world ... of 13.125% ....

This and no medical care for the USA people are likely to change and the valuation of a company paying near zero tax anywhere ... verses one which DOES ,,, is vastly different. I am not convinced the current fund manager, Hamish can or will navigate this well. He tends to NOT cut his mistakes. In fact he has been 18% and now 15% cash since the S+P 500 was 1,800 !! .... Only time will tell .. on my fears.

Second is the overall USA market and the preponderance of this fund to be in USA based stocks, which now are at ALL TIME highs ever .... v the GDP ... higher than even 1929. Higher and if as I suspect the 3,000 S+P level is breached and they get to 3,100 and stop somewhere around 3,150 - taking the USA overall macro value to 150% of GDP ... verses a peak in 1929 of 125% ... a peak in 2000 of 125% and in 2007 a little lower ... but just as silly.

Here, we have rates at all time lows in relation to inflation. Insane USA debt and at $200,000- per taxpayer and the lower 80% of taxpayers earn only 35k, its ... what it is ... OBVIOUS.

I believe due to the wealth flow as the rich in the USA paying no tax and the lower 80% including all the middle class post 1980 having 24% of the wealth and NOW ... in 2019 a mere 9% ... the flow is not stopping its actually got worse and it is impossible .... IMPOSSIBLE for it to fall too much further. We in Australia have over 30% shared by the lower 80% about as good as it gets.

Concepts like this seem to escape the current fund manager and Hamish has made some fairly bizarre calls and actions, saving grace is being long tax theft ... via his holdings ... who are in themselves hand grenades longer term. APPLE in the UK earn t 12 billion profits and paid 12 million in tax to the UK at a recent hearing. More of a joke here.

Buffett holds almost identical holdings and I suppose one might expect the accounts look great when your NOT paying tax even to your own nation. Apple is one of Buffets biggest holdings. Maybe I should send my old Motorola tac3 phone which was $3,600- in 1997 to both of them, Buffet and the guy running this fund now ?

Trump has done some irreparable damage to trade and the USA's name overseas. Again, opinion, and only time will tell via numbers where it goes. I do however note some massive measures in the EU and laws passed to stem these crooks. Even here in Australia, it seems likely some are going to get hit with 40% tax on all transactions because they believe they are above ... the law.

For the last 10 years, if one dodged the AUD rise from 50 cents to $1- ... the best place to be has been the USA post GFC. Happens when tax is NOT an issue. Or welfare. I sadly see the tides turning, whether it be 2020 or 2024 ... the USA will have universal healthcare ... as it should. Instead of paying 5% tax overall ... these companies ... the pets ... will be paying close to 20% . Again, predictions but the second one is in progress and the rest of the world cant afford to NOT collect 1% of GDP or close to 2% for Australia in GDP it is owed.

Not all bad, even in this scenario ... holding 15% cash even if techs turn more sour should protect it for a while the funds at least.

As for the rest, well done ... and ... well ... good luck
 
And there she blows ...

S+P 500 up near all time highs ... $42.50

MFG and funds under management are of course a function of the S+P on the main as thats where most of it lies.

Suspect still some legs on the S+P even from here ... in the USA so ... to 3,125 or so ... another 8% so $47- ? ... who knows.

I might add ... when in early 2016 was at 1,800 or so ... MFg had 40 billion under management and now 160% of that its 70 billion under management and YEP ... some added, but on the main a function of the underlying market.

Oh and MFG was $28- toppish I thought then relative to the world outside, now at 150% of that ... just like the INDEX ... yep again ... stretching.

Markets at times go too far and of course cutting tax in the USA to 21% verses 35% for companies and ignoring the people and healthcare and pensions ... is what it is. A very big driver ... and tax collected via USA corporations where the tax loopholes were supposedly closed ... went from 17.6% of profits about 50% of the tax rate ... to 7.3% NOW.

So its at 33% the actual tax rate verses 50% pre Trump ... and well ... not providing healthcare is never a wise option for any Society. Not longer term. Cycles change and eventually universal healthcare in the USA is coming ... and the drivers that saw the USA ignore its poor and coloured, well over 50% and drove its stocks to outperform all others ... will change.

Such is the cycle of life and markets. It goes to extremes.
 
@kahuna1 You've mentioned MFG/MFF several times recently, so I've looked at the charts instead of ignoring them as I do with all LICs. The performance for their investors since the GFC has been spectacular. Especially MFG > +9000%. The maxDD (2015-16) was 29%, but this was after 4 huge up years.

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Thanks for pointing out their long term performances. I realise that past performances may not be indicative of future performance especially if governments get serious about collecting taxes from these multinational companies. I hope they do.
 
Hi Peter,

thanks, yep ... hard to work out actual return from MFF and MFG as an investor but its massive. Options and second options MFG and MFF a lot of options cover its returns.

Both decent fund mangers, the latter the better at around 18% per annum for people in the fund. MFF is essentially a fund LISTED one as opposed to MFG which is the fund manager ... a fund manger. Its main fund has about 15.7 % return per annum longer term.

Do feel one hand we go higher USA wise, and likely 8% of so ... but in the greater scheme of things, caution and pause, MFG tends to run miles ahead of reality and here, well its reflecting that.

Suspect, longer term things cannot go on USA leading and outperforming all other nations as it ignores its sick and poor and gives tax cuts to the 1% ... and that has made values of USA stocks now paying 20% of what they did 20 years ago, jump.

time will tell but both decent and prefer the MFF in a storm.

Take care
 
Well its like holding a leverage S+P 500 position and of course ... funds under management are a function of that ... so too income and underlying profits.

Just hit the 2,950 in the S+P before retreating a bit ... but suspect 3,000- is irresistible to them.
 
Magellan Financial Group has reported a 6.97 per cent increase in funds under management in January, which reached $104.3 billion by month's end.

The increase in funds in global equities (7.0 per cent) and infrastructure (8.2 per cent) outpaced Australian equities (3.7 per cent).
 
And a month later:

Global fund manager Magellan says its defensive equity strategy saying is well positioned to ride out the financial storm caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

Magellan Financial last week in a note to shareholders detailed its equity strategy for the group’s $100bn investment portfolio.

Approximately 15 per cent of its investments will be held in cash (US dollars), with other investments in US utilities, telecommunication infrastructure and consumer staples.

It also noted its holdings in luxury brands such as LVMH (Louis Vuittion Moet Hennessy) and technology investments are well positioned due to existing financial strength within respective companies.

Magellan Financial chief executive Hamish Douglas also warned that the fund does hold exposure to Mcdonalds, Starbucks and Yum! Brands, which are facing a “challenging demand situation” as economies begin to shut down due to the virus.

MFG shares last up 5.4 per cent to $32.39 - after touching record highs of $74.91 only a month ago.
 
Avoid ....


Takes effort to be cash 16% for a 70% rise /// then invest at the peak ... and then a month latter be back again to 17% cash.

As for not understanding even basic economics, let alone history ...

Comparing USA recovery post CV19 to any others in favorable terms, is .... delusional and for a fund manager disturbing.

Even a person with a Forrest Gump IQ and lower would understand this. Hamish Douglass, who like Trump has some ... well ... errors ... misses the point yet again.

Only a Davos type would be able to get economics and trends so badly wrong.

Time will tell, but at this stage I would ... RUN the hell in the other direction. Clearly displayed either excessive CV19 isolation or excessive exposure to Fox News ... mere part of the problem with this fund manager.

Long term under performance for funds under management.

Missing ... USA ... CV19 response is something most of the rest of the world is viewing in horror is what clearly is displayed at the moment for this fund manager.

Talk about missing the point, macro economically and every other way looking forward. Cannot even understand recent history in his current views.

Suggest serious under-performance verses index as time goes on. Not massive, but the GAP between benchmark and results, alarming and over time .... as with most, this one fades due to an at best erratic and disturbing dictatorial leadership which is more interested in his own reflection and importance than actually understanding or even comprehension of past events that do not comply with his views.

I find ... his shared CV19 views alarming on every level. Actions, views on future and understanding of PAST events.
 
I heard a guy (who has sparred with Douglass) opine that Magellan had hitched itself to the FAANG growth story for a decade and now has a one hundred billion dollar headache of unwinding positions and finding a new theme or two for the next period ahead. And issuing those options on funds will crimp upside.

Performance is the measure of MFG success, and maybe attracting too much money, and the fees that flow, has trapped them.

First Hubris, then Nemesis
 
Although the underperformance of MFG relative to the market (XJO) is very noticeable in the past six months, the real question concerns MFG's future prospects.

Past 6 months
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Past two years
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The performance of MFG relative to the index over the past two years has been quite a ride. The end result is that it has performed better than the index over this 2yr period (especially including divs). While a medium term trader would be disappointed the longer term investor would be comfortable holding MFG. This difference in perspective is the main difference between investors and traders.

@Skate has posted an interesting opinion on MFG and I'd like to see it reposted in this thread.

If the recent underperformance of MFG is just a short term dip in a long term trend of outperformance then MFG is worthy of consideration during this dip.

I do a great disservice to real investors mentioning such a small period as two years as an investment. The 10 year chart of MFG shows that it has been one of the better investments in the ASX over this period.

mfg10.PNG
 
MFG is currently a buy
What I hope to achieve is to give a sense that (MFG) at this time is a worthy buy (well I think so) only time will tell. When you are reading my reasoning all I say is be objective, rather than jumping to conclusions. First off, I'll have to admit Magellan Financial Group share price is down after the fund manager gave its monthly Fund Under Management (FUM) update for February 2021.

Strengthening my position - an article by - Jaz Harrison
Jaz is a keen investor who loves to thoroughly poke holes in an investment idea before it has a chance of making it into her portfolio. Jaz invests for the long-term and doesn't sweat the small stuff. She strongly believes that empowering people with knowledge is the best way for them to take charge of their finances, which is exactly the approach she takes with her own money and investments.

Jaz goes on to say - I think the Magellan share price is a buy
The Magellan share price has suffered in the wake of this inflation/interest rate sell-off. It has dropped over 30% since 20 November 2020. Some of Magellan’s investments haven’t grown recently, but this is a very "short-term horizon" in investment terms.

However, there are also a number of attractive features about Magellan
Magellan continues to see Funds Under Management (FUM) inflows. Magellan’s new investments – Guzman y Gomez, Barrenjoey, and FinClear – are all doing well. If you read the Australian Financial Review, you might have seen that Barrenjoey seems to pinch a quality individual from other local investment banks at least once a week.

Another reason to think that Magellan can be a solid performer
Magellan has a high dividend payout ratio. Fund managers don’t need to keep much capital to grow, so Magellan can pay large dividends to investors – this adds to the total shareholder return, without impacting growth much. Magellan currently has a trailing partially franked dividend yield of 5.1%. Using earnings estimates on Commsec, it’s valued at under 14 times the projected earnings for the 2023 financial year. So, that positive.

So, why update you on Magellan?
The recent comments fall outside my current thinking. In my opinion "Magellan" has positioned itself for long-term gains. I'm counting on Magellan recovering to its previous glory & if it does "capital gains" will be jumping off the screen. (that my end Game)

Skate.
 
another reason not to hold MFG: (IMO ... it is called alignment of interests)

Barrenjoey Capital handed out at least $15 million worth of Magellan Financial Group shares to new employees in its first three months, as part of its strategy of picking off key bankers, brokers and analysts for the new investment bank. Accounts lodged with the corporate regulator show that as at December 31, Barrenjoey held 900,813 Magellan Financial Group shares, compared to the 1.2 million shares it had held on September 21.

Magellan Financial Group is one of Barrenjoey’s major backers, having bought 40 per cent of the new investment bank with 1.2 million shares and $90 million in cash and providing $50 million in working capital. But it only has a 4.99 per cent voting interest in Barrenjoey.
 
another reason not to hold MFG: (IMO ... it is called alignment of interests)



Magellan Financial Group is one of Barrenjoey’s major backers, having bought 40 per cent of the new investment bank with 1.2 million shares and $90 million in cash and providing $50 million in working capital. But it only has a 4.99 per cent voting interest in Barrenjoey.
I don't follow, @Dona Ferentes . Can you explain it further, thanks?
 
I don't follow, @Dona Ferentes . Can you explain it further, thanks?
I have the view, rightly or wrongly, that most Fund Manager vehicles (and there are quite a few of them) are not appropriate for retail. Traders with their systems may be able to do OK, but really:
1. The stock is used as incentives / golden handcuffs for staff. Hence the allocations to Barranjoey staff. If a member leaves, then those shares tend to be/ are dumped. ( a bit like Directors)
2. Stock options for the above purpose are frequently used. (in copious quantities).
3. The Beta is high. For FA, valuations are based on fees, and fees are are derived from the Funds held. If performance is good, then FUM (increases. If performance (rear view stuff) is better than the market, then inflows tend to occur. And if the market tanks, valuations drop and FUM is lower, and investors tend to exit - these are open-ended funds, remember. So the ride can be a bit of a roller coaster
4. Mandates come and go. Other large players, such as super funds, can turn the tap on and off. The margins may be tighter than retail, but the impact is still felt on FUM.

I know there are other good reasons to hold, and other good reasons to buy n sell. I have been around enough to know they aren't for me.
 
MFG is currently a buy
What I hope to achieve is to give a sense that (MFG) at this time is a worthy buy (well I think so) only time will tell. When you are reading my reasoning all I say is be objective, rather than jumping to conclusions. First off, I'll have to admit Magellan Financial Group share price is down after the fund manager gave its monthly Fund Under Management (FUM) update for February 2021.

Strengthening my position - an article by - Jaz Harrison
Jaz is a keen investor who loves to thoroughly poke holes in an investment idea before it has a chance of making it into her portfolio. Jaz invests for the long-term and doesn't sweat the small stuff. She strongly believes that empowering people with knowledge is the best way for them to take charge of their finances, which is exactly the approach she takes with her own money and investments.

Jaz goes on to say - I think the Magellan share price is a buy
The Magellan share price has suffered in the wake of this inflation/interest rate sell-off. It has dropped over 30% since 20 November 2020. Some of Magellan’s investments haven’t grown recently, but this is a very "short-term horizon" in investment terms.

However, there are also a number of attractive features about Magellan
Magellan continues to see Funds Under Management (FUM) inflows. Magellan’s new investments – Guzman y Gomez, Barrenjoey, and FinClear – are all doing well. If you read the Australian Financial Review, you might have seen that Barrenjoey seems to pinch a quality individual from other local investment banks at least once a week.

Another reason to think that Magellan can be a solid performer
Magellan has a high dividend payout ratio. Fund managers don’t need to keep much capital to grow, so Magellan can pay large dividends to investors – this adds to the total shareholder return, without impacting growth much. Magellan currently has a trailing partially franked dividend yield of 5.1%. Using earnings estimates on Commsec, it’s valued at under 14 times the projected earnings for the 2023 financial year. So, that positive.

So, why update you on Magellan?
The recent comments fall outside my current thinking. In my opinion "Magellan" has positioned itself for long-term gains. I'm counting on Magellan recovering to its previous glory & if it does "capital gains" will be jumping off the screen. (that my end Game)

Skate.
This was an interesting posting on 21 March 2021.
On 21 March the price of MFG was and was a buy by experts.
The price of MFG on 21 March 21 wasaround $44 whereas on 30 Sep the price was $34 . The price was never a dscussion point.
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First of all; I like MFG's approach and disclose am a comfortable holder.

The share price decline is disappointing and admitted by management as a combination of hubris, changing macro factors (China) and subsequent conservative re-entry. All of which may imply the need for a revision of trading protocols within Magellan as a whole.

This is a good summary and admission from CEO Hamish Douglass. Feel free to only read the first part before he starts ranting about the absurdity of cryptocurrencies.


In light of this, I'm interested in what the Forum thinks as an appropriate buy price and why.
 
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