Dona Ferentes
A little bit OC⚡DC
- Joined
- 11 January 2016
- Posts
- 15,080
- Reactions
- 20,447
?
MFG - Magellan Financial Group
- Thread starter Boggo
- Start date
- Joined
- 8 June 2008
- Posts
- 12,413
- Reactions
- 18,064
Maybe i should apply to the job,i am great at defensive portfolio and lost just below 10% in the last 6 months.do i qualify??? ?
- Joined
- 8 June 2008
- Posts
- 12,413
- Reactions
- 18,064
More seriously,the proof i should not do discretionary trading,this is one stock i was tempted to go long term
- Joined
- 20 July 2021
- Posts
- 10,972
- Reactions
- 15,238
i hold several rivals but from my personal observation ( of the ones i hold ) the smaller the promises , and the lower the profile the less chance of disappointment
and to my mind trying to pick good value stocks with an international flavour has been a nightmare .
just be careful of a take-over move that could crystallize near term losses , like when Pengala took over Hunter Hall ( which i held/hold )
that was many times messier for similar reasons
and to my mind trying to pick good value stocks with an international flavour has been a nightmare .
just be careful of a take-over move that could crystallize near term losses , like when Pengala took over Hunter Hall ( which i held/hold )
that was many times messier for similar reasons
- Joined
- 2 May 2007
- Posts
- 4,688
- Reactions
- 2,901
unrelated events?
- 6th Dec - Brett left the company https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/a...access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
- 8th Dec - this one- https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/a...access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
- 17th Dec - Trading Halt and AFR article - pasted below
- 17th Dec - this one on SMH https://www.smh.com.au/business/ban...ion-of-material-contract-20211217-p59ik1.html
- 20th Dec - declaration of business termination with an expected material effect of 6%. The market reacted a few times more than on the southern front.
- https://www.monexsecurities.com.au/...shares-just-lost-1-8b-of-market-cap-what-now/ Today on Motley - I do not believe them but there are some facts which can not ignore on this If you read inside the linked post one expert said the loss is 15% or more, not 6% as the company stated to cool down the market.
- What will be pre-Christmas disclosure - a pineapple?
- for the optimistic chart from simple wall street
Last edited:
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
- Joined
- 2 January 2006
- Posts
- 13,344
- Reactions
- 9,449
Yes @Miner .
MFG say 6% loss this Australian financial year, somehow measuring this from a 12% loss from losing SJP. However the outflow of funds and inevitable lowering of fees will magnify this greatly, even if a share price fall were not to be maintained or increase.
All in all quite a Scomotion, smoke and mirrors and marketing as @Dona Ferentes pointed out, instead of good portfolio management.
gg
MFG say 6% loss this Australian financial year, somehow measuring this from a 12% loss from losing SJP. However the outflow of funds and inevitable lowering of fees will magnify this greatly, even if a share price fall were not to be maintained or increase.
All in all quite a Scomotion, smoke and mirrors and marketing as @Dona Ferentes pointed out, instead of good portfolio management.
gg
- Joined
- 2 May 2007
- Posts
- 4,688
- Reactions
- 2,901
Thanks @Garpal Gumnut .
I will use 'scomotion' in future to illustrate smoke, mirror and marketing ..
? ? ?
AFR article Tuesday : Hedge funds borrowed over 8 million MFG shares to short sell , netting about $ 75 Mill profit .
Magellan Global Fund has lagged the world index by nearly 15 % over the year , giving back a decade of outperformance on $ 100 Billion of funds under management .
Magellan Global Fund has lagged the world index by nearly 15 % over the year , giving back a decade of outperformance on $ 100 Billion of funds under management .
- Joined
- 20 July 2021
- Posts
- 10,972
- Reactions
- 15,238
a decade of out-performance , but then a rush for the doors , implies it has been signing up the wrong clients ( 'fair-weather friends ' instead of sophisticated investors )
and maybe in the spirit of equality MFG should start selectively short-selling it's rivals , that might help returns
- Joined
- 16 July 2021
- Posts
- 9
- Reactions
- 17
Been doing some more reading on this one...
According to their website their Global Fund which one can presumably buy units in has returned 16 % over 10 years, which has in fact beaten even the SP500 at 13 % or thereabouts, while reportedly aiming to be conservative with investment choices. So overall seem to be making more good decisions than bad. In fact makes me wonder whether one would do better to simply invest in Global Fund units as opposed to a Financial Company itself. A lot of people might be happy to simply beat the SP500? Kind of like superannuation results.
Although over the same period of time (10 years) Magellan's share price rose from about $1.40 in December 2021 to $ 70 in February 2020, and then has fallen to around $20 in December 2021. So someone who bought shares in 2011 would be delighted while someone who bought shares in 2020 would be quite upset.
Interesting thing is that while there hasn't really been any great change in earnings or dividends over the last 3 years, there has been a lot of change in share price. EPS for last three years were 226c, 239c, 228c. And dividends were around 184c, 215c, 211c. But share price went from $22 to $70 to $20. It would appear that:
- Earnings of 226c and dividend of 184c on a share price around $22 in 2018 would be fairly attractive, an apparently adequately budgeted return of 8 %
- But in 2020 earnings of 239c and dividend of 215c on a share price that reached $70 would be a fair bit less attractive, around 3.2 %, probably similar to what one could get from Coles or Woolies....
- So difficult to see why people would buy it for $70
- Interesting Motley Fool was recommending to buy it on December 10, 2019 when it was around $52 per share! It did go up more and they did suggest to sell it in January 2020 before it fell.
www.fool.com.au
www.fool.com.au
So looking at all this it seems that the price might have been reasonable in 2019, and is maybe reasonable now, but had been bid up to silly levels in early 2020 and then fallen for quite a while since then? More profitable but probably more risky than something like Coles that earns 78 cents and pays 61c admittedly franked on a price of $17.70, so about 4.5 percent... Where Magellan seems closer to 7 or 8 %. But if their Global Fund were to continue to grow this might be a better option than either since more diversified than MFG alone, and more profitable overall than Coles? Or just seectively invest in some of the same companies that they do?
According to their website their Global Fund which one can presumably buy units in has returned 16 % over 10 years, which has in fact beaten even the SP500 at 13 % or thereabouts, while reportedly aiming to be conservative with investment choices. So overall seem to be making more good decisions than bad. In fact makes me wonder whether one would do better to simply invest in Global Fund units as opposed to a Financial Company itself. A lot of people might be happy to simply beat the SP500? Kind of like superannuation results.
Although over the same period of time (10 years) Magellan's share price rose from about $1.40 in December 2021 to $ 70 in February 2020, and then has fallen to around $20 in December 2021. So someone who bought shares in 2011 would be delighted while someone who bought shares in 2020 would be quite upset.
Interesting thing is that while there hasn't really been any great change in earnings or dividends over the last 3 years, there has been a lot of change in share price. EPS for last three years were 226c, 239c, 228c. And dividends were around 184c, 215c, 211c. But share price went from $22 to $70 to $20. It would appear that:
- Earnings of 226c and dividend of 184c on a share price around $22 in 2018 would be fairly attractive, an apparently adequately budgeted return of 8 %
- But in 2020 earnings of 239c and dividend of 215c on a share price that reached $70 would be a fair bit less attractive, around 3.2 %, probably similar to what one could get from Coles or Woolies....
- So difficult to see why people would buy it for $70
- Interesting Motley Fool was recommending to buy it on December 10, 2019 when it was around $52 per share! It did go up more and they did suggest to sell it in January 2020 before it fell.
10 ASX large caps to buy for 2020
I would buy these 10 ASX large caps to try to beat the market in 2020 including REA Group Limited (ASX:REA).
www.fool.com.au
Leading brokers name 3 ASX shares to sell today
ASX Ltd (ASX:ASX) and these ASX shares have been named as sells by leading brokers this week. Here's why they are bearish on them...
www.fool.com.au
So looking at all this it seems that the price might have been reasonable in 2019, and is maybe reasonable now, but had been bid up to silly levels in early 2020 and then fallen for quite a while since then? More profitable but probably more risky than something like Coles that earns 78 cents and pays 61c admittedly franked on a price of $17.70, so about 4.5 percent... Where Magellan seems closer to 7 or 8 %. But if their Global Fund were to continue to grow this might be a better option than either since more diversified than MFG alone, and more profitable overall than Coles? Or just seectively invest in some of the same companies that they do?
- Joined
- 16 July 2021
- Posts
- 9
- Reactions
- 17
Final instalment here guys
Ended up getting out of these at $22.03 today, up from $19.55 about 10 days ago
Had put a sell order in a bit higher than I though they would go and had planned to move it up but slept in....
Still did OK at an approximate 7 % rise over this time
Not sure if I should have held them a bit longer though :-(
Ended up getting out of these at $22.03 today, up from $19.55 about 10 days ago
Had put a sell order in a bit higher than I though they would go and had planned to move it up but slept in....
Still did OK at an approximate 7 % rise over this time
Not sure if I should have held them a bit longer though :-(
- Joined
- 20 July 2021
- Posts
- 10,972
- Reactions
- 15,238
the age old question , ' should i have waited longer ( higher ) or should i have sold at all '
one school of thought say , a profit taken , is a profit guaranteed
time will tell , but a question i ask myself ( in recent years ) is can i reinvest that cash wisely , it doesn't earn much in the bank ,
now sure there is a chance of a big market downturn in the future , but is that in January , March , 2025 , maybe even 2030 .
those can-kickers are very practiced now , maybe they are exhausted , and maybe they have brought in new recruits and trained them up , ready to take over
good luck
In all of my 25 years of trading, the most costliest mistake has ALWAYS been not selling a stock. If anybody asks what the most important part of trading is to me, I tell them "learning how to pull the trigger on a sell". I only learnt this 3 years ago when my circumstances changed and if I didn't change with them, I'd drown in my problems.
though i don't trade using a system, Knowing how to sell has either made me a lot of money (positive trade) or saved me a lot of money(negative trade).
as divs4 has said, move on and reinvest wisely and you wont have lost much.
To give an example.....I've owned MCR shares for 21 years on and off.
Firstly buying 10k at .22c in 2002,
selling 2500 @ $1.00 in 2004 (got my money back)
selling 2500 @ $3.00 in around 2006 (this set me up thinking i was a great trader)
I then watched as the stock hit $5.00 circa 2007 and i did bugger all, only to watch my profit fall away
several years lapsed while i raised 3 kids, worked two jobs and lost a marriage.
2018/19 took what i had left from the settlement and changed my thinking to more aggressive stance ie; if I'm in a losing trade, get out asap, don't wait to see what happens.
Meanwhile, MCR is organising with BHP to restart nickel operations and i start selling what i've got to get in and telling everyone I knew to jump on board (was my best pick in the 2021 yearly comp)
buying a lot in the capital raising last year @.77c and my last at $1.25, only for them to hit $1.50 last week.
In the back of my mind there is a lot of chatter about inflation, interest rates and so forth. I sell down half my holdings being mindful of not coping a capital gains hit, only to see the price still climbing.
So the question is....... Did I do the right thing? and as far as I'm concerned......yes, for me I did.
As for you Matt, I think you did too. You took a profit when you were asleep....I can see 2 wins here,
*1 you made a profit on a trade
*2 your money was working for you when you were doing something else you wanted to do (while you were sleeping, I was fishing in my boat paid for by investing in ADN shares)
Also, remember, if you like the stock and you're bullish, you can always buy back in (I will with MCR)
If you continue on this road of taking profits, I can't see a problem and good luck to you
- Joined
- 2 May 2007
- Posts
- 4,688
- Reactions
- 2,901
Magellan loses $23b in St James’s Place exit
Quarterly reporting reveals the withdrawn mandate accounted for $23 billion of funds under management and first-half performance fees will be just $11 million.
Garpal Gumnut
Ross Island Hotel
- Joined
- 2 January 2006
- Posts
- 13,344
- Reactions
- 9,449
Is this the end?
The adults are back trading in the large broking and hedged houses over the last 4 days since the NY holiday and the coked cousins are back on the farm or awaiting an appearance in court, as the third generation does. So it is on again, shorts will be out, a tick up on Tuesday to get the longs interested and all down since then.
Quite a decrease in price today with an RSI which indicates the pain may be yet to come.
gg
The adults are back trading in the large broking and hedged houses over the last 4 days since the NY holiday and the coked cousins are back on the farm or awaiting an appearance in court, as the third generation does. So it is on again, shorts will be out, a tick up on Tuesday to get the longs interested and all down since then.
Quite a decrease in price today with an RSI which indicates the pain may be yet to come.
gg
- Joined
- 2 May 2007
- Posts
- 4,688
- Reactions
- 2,901
Thanks, Sir GG @Garpal Gumnut aka Governor-General , for the update and video too
Have a nice weekend and stay out of the virus and World No 1 tennis player or arrogant unsportsman from Serbia.
Have a nice weekend
Regards
- Joined
- 19 October 2005
- Posts
- 4,128
- Reactions
- 6,069
Ok I would be s#*tg myself now if holding MFG with a break of $20. Needs to pull up quick in the next week or two to prove a false break or a horrible prospect looms - not as bad as being run over, slaughtered in your bed or getting a cancer diagnosis though. Maybe in the context of a broad market decline?
So_Cynical
The Contrarian Averager
- Joined
- 31 August 2007
- Posts
- 7,464
- Reactions
- 1,463
I have 16 years as an active and enthusiastic market participant and my experience is the total opposite, my biggest mistakes have been selling to early, 1 x 1000% winner covers 10 x 100% losers, fixed position sizes. losers are irrelevant.
MFG its all about FUM, clients voting with their feet directly impacts fees and profit.
- Joined
- 20 July 2021
- Posts
- 10,972
- Reactions
- 15,238
reckon i have made most of the mistakes an investor without a margin loan can make , however they haven't been hugely damaging when they go wrong , sure i have sold too early AND too late ( and not sold at all on the wrong stock )
BUT sometimes i do the right thing at the right time as well
MFG might be able to turn this round or not
one thing it still has is a relatively undamaged brand depending on the funds that are performing well , it MIGHT be a take-over target , there has been a bit of consolidation going on .
BUT sometimes i do the right thing at the right time as well
MFG might be able to turn this round or not
one thing it still has is a relatively undamaged brand depending on the funds that are performing well , it MIGHT be a take-over target , there has been a bit of consolidation going on .
