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LYC - Lynas Rare Earths

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rcw1 said:

Lynas Western​

13 October at 23:28 ·

Delighted to welcome U.S. Ambassador Caroline Kennedy and U.S. Consul General in WA Ms Siriana Nair for a tour of our Western Australian operations - from Mt Weld where it all begins to our new Kalgoorlie Rare Earths Processing Facility.
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+3

U.S. Consulate Perth​

13 October at 23:17 ·
The U.S. is committed to advancing economic prosperity and WA is central to this vision.
Ambassador Caroline Kennedy and Consul General Siriana Nair had an excellent visit yesterday to Lynas Western's rare earths operations in WA’s Goldfields region, seeing firsthand the production and processing needed for the rare earths necessary to the green technologies that will allow us to meet our net zero goals.
As the only ASX-listed company with both a female CEO and chairperson, it was especially pleasing to meet with Lynas’ leadership team.
Lynas also recently signed a US$120 million contract with the U.S. Department of Defense to build a commercial light and heavy rare earths facility in the United States, showing our alliance in action.
PS- Can you spot the American tank on the site? It’s the Kansas company’s largest in the southern hemisphere and has 960,000 bolts!


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Click to expand...

Can't see the American tank.
 
1667221192503.png

Solid Performance?
JARE however paid some money at a nominal interest rate. Is it however good enough to sustain?
Prince went up today as soon as the market heard I have tipped :mad:
But I am very consistent to pull back the price from the first day of the month, however (sorry holders, and congrats to the buyers to waiting for $7 to come down or better wish your horse to win in Melbourne Cup :D
 

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Miner said:
View attachment 148685
Solid Performance?
JARE however paid some money at a nominal interest rate. Is it however good enough to sustain?
Prince went up today as soon as the market heard I have tipped :mad:
But I am very consistent to pull back the price from the first day of the month, however (sorry holders, and congrats to the buyers to waiting for $7 to come down or better wish your horse to win in Melbourne Cup :D
Click to expand...

What and when was your tip, sorry I must have missed it. Can only find "Point A $7.05 & Point B $6.85, so there is still a bit more to go IMO."
 
rcw1 missed opportunity last Thursday for yet another trade. Such is life, that happens. Watching the numbers very carefully for an opening. Are you still holding JohnDe?

Kind regards
rcw1
 
Good morning
Financial Review article published yesterday 14/11/22. The Malaysian issues have caught the eye of journalist Brad Thompson. This memo dated 27/02/2020 relates in part to this article.


For mine, cannot for the life of rcw1 believe that Amanda and the Board would be that silly as to compromise their ability to maintain operations. When questioned by media Amanda's reported response was, “It is a challenging timeframe and no, there’s no update. At this stage, we continue to manage all elements of that plant to be able to bring it online in the event that we are unable to continue to produce in Malaysia,” she said. Apt and to the point, ha ha ha ha ha ha.

The political beast may dictate otherwise should the LYC plant in Kalgoorlie not be ready to rock and roll 01/07/23. Having said this, will continue to trade LYC when opportunities present, at this point in time.

Key deadline looms for Lynas’ $575m processing plant​

25e1998adf11f73d7d5a091f538a55685bc1c400.png

Brad ThompsonReporter
Nov 14, 2022 – 5.00am

Lynas Rare Earths is having an each-way bet as it races to finish a new $575 million processing plant at Kalgoorlie in time to meet a deadline imposed by Malaysian authorities. The company says it is on target to have the cracking and leaching plant up and running by July 1. That is when Malaysia authorities have told Lynas it must stop cracking and leaching rare earths mined in Western Australia at its downstream processing plant at Kuantan on the South-East Asian nation’s east coast.

The Kalgoorlie plant is rapidly taking shape just south of the historic gold mining town, but some long-time Lynas watchers doubt it will be ready in time.

Lynas is the only significant producer of strategically important separated rare earths outside of China – something that is unlikely to change any time soon – and any delay or threat to its production will concern the company’s Japan Inc and Pentagon backers.

It makes sense for Lynas to have a back-up plan. The company has asked Malaysia, where it is regulated by the Atomic Energy Licensing Board (AELB), to review the terms of its licence to operate in the country. However, Lynas has some rusted on critics in Malaysian politics and in the community despite being a big employer and producing materials crucial in greenhouse gas-reducing technologies.

The Lynas licence to operate is up for renewal in March. When it was last up for renewal, one of four key conditions imposed by the Pakatan Harapan government was that Lynas move cracking and leaching, which produces a low-level radioactive Water Leach Purification residue, outside Malaysia before the July 1 deadline.

Beyond that date, Lynas will no longer be allowed to import rare earths, which have a naturally occurring radioactivity, straight from its Mt Weld mine in WA to Kuantan. Lynas wants the condition removed but has kept very quiet about its application. There was speculation that Lynas was trying to have the condition removed as far back as May, but back then the AELB denied it had received any application.

Malaysia’s science, technology and innovation minister, Adham Baba, eventually confirmed the Lynas application was being evaluated after being asked about the matter in parliament. Lynas managing director Amanda Lacaze must think there is at least a glimmer of hope the application will succeed, given her curious answer to a recent question about the progress at Kalgoorlie and hitting the challenging July 1 deadline. “It is a challenging timeframe and no, there’s no update. At this stage, we continue to manage all elements of that plant to be able to bring it online in the event that we are unable to continue to produce in Malaysia,” she said.

Doubts over the deadline​

Although critics in Malaysia have stirred controversy over the low-level radioactivity associated with rare earths, the Lynas operations and waste storage plans in Australia – where the long-standing mineral sands industry routinely deals with higher levels of radioactivity – have barely raised an eyebrow with environmental watchdogs and green groups.

Ord Minnett analyst Dylan Kelly, who has followed Lynas’ journey for years, doubts the company can hit the deadline at Kalgoorlie.

“We remain sceptical that the project remains ‘on time and on budget’, but we are less concerned with cost overruns due to the $1 billion cash buffer [held by Lynas],” he said in a note to clients after Lynas revealed a not completely unexpected 15 per cent blow out in costs at Kalgoorlie. “However, we reiterate that being ‘on time’ for July 1, 2023, remains essential to comply with its Malaysian regulations.”

Ord Minnett has a sell rating on the stock but welcomed a move by Lynas backer JARE, a special purpose company established by Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation and Sojitz Corporation, to remove its capital management restrictions on the company.

Canaccord Genuity has a buy rating on Lynas, even though analyst Reg Spencer is also wary about it hitting the Kalgoorlie deadline.
The optimists see a potential win-win for Lynas whereby Malaysia allows cracking and leaching to continue and Kalgoorlie comes online before or after July 1. That would give Lynas a mid-stream production boost as it invests $500 million in increasing upstream output from Mt Weld and builds a heavy and light rare earths separation facility somewhere in the Gulf of Texas, helped by funding from the US Department of Defence.


Lynas announced in August that it was stepping up growth plans and intended to increase throughput capacity at Mt Weld from 300,000 tonnes a year to 1.3 million tonnes a year. The move is designed to increase neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) production to 12,000 tonnes a year by 2024, with Lynas also flagging plans for two additional growth projects that could take it to nearly 17,000 tonnes a year.

Hosting US royalty​

The previous target, announced in May 2019, was to be producing 10,500 tonnes a year of NdPr by 2025. Lynas revised its target based on growth in demand for permanent magnets needed in electric vehicles, wind turbines, defence applications and in other now everyday technologies.

The chances of success for Lynas and its backers start at Mt Weld, about 30 kilometres from Laverton and nearly 400 kilometres by road north of Kalgoorlie.

1668457663117.png
1668457663117.png


JARE is helping fund more exploration work there and last month the huge, rare earths deposit, which sits in a two billion-year-old volcanic plug, was visited by US political royalty. Ms Lacaze hosted US ambassador to Australia Caroline Kennedy on a tour of the remote mine and the plant under construction at Kalgoorlie, in another reminder of Lynas’ standing with Australia’s allies as a non-China supplier of rare earths.

The federal government is providing funding for mineral sands producer Iluka Resources to build Australia’s first fully integrated rare earths refinery at Eneabba in WA, but so far Iluka doesn’t have a rare earths mine.

Iluka last month moved to secure feedstock from Northern Minerals, now under the leadership of Lynas founder Nick Curtis, to supplement the large monazite-rich stockpiles left behind from mineral sands mining it intends to process at Eneabba.

The deal could result in Iluka emerging with a 19.9 per cent stake in Northern Minerals and its heavy rare earths Browns Range project. Iluka is also weighing up rare earths mining at Wimmera in Victoria. Meanwhile, there continues to be great excitement about anything that resembles a hint of a significant hard rock rare earths or critical minerals discovery.

Junior explorer WA1 Resources’ share price jumped more than 400 per cent on October 26 after a single drill hole indicated it had discovered a carbonatite mineral system in outback WA. Such systems host all three of the world’s operating niobium mines and Mt Weld.

There is also a growing band of explorers looking at clay-hosted rare earths projects, including a cluster around Esperance in WA that includes OD6 Metals, Mt Ridley Mines, Meeka Metals, Heavy Rare Earths Limited and West Cobar Metals.

The OD6 share price more than doubled last week when it announced assay results showing some of the highest grade and thickest clay-hosted rare earths intersections in Australia.

Different approaches​

Clay deposits are easier to mine but generally much lower grade than hard rock rare earths deposits. The rare earths produced from mining don’t require cracking and the processing and separation process is well established in China. China has exploited its clay-hosted rare earths using a technique known as in-situ leaching where miners have injected tonnes of ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride and other chemicals into the ground and caused major environmental damage. Authorities in China have cracked down on this kind of mining and there is no suggestion that emerging players in Australia would seek to use such environmentally damaging methods.

Mr Spencer said Canaccord was keeping an eye on the clay hopefuls given the demand for non-China rare earths supply. He said their future was likely to come down to grade, as with many other mining projects.

“The world is going to need more rare earths, and we are all living under a cloud of geopolitical uncertainty whereby on any day of the week China could cease exports of rare earths oxides or even magnets to the rest of the world,” he said.

“Given that they control 90 per cent of the rare earths market the rest of the world needs to have an independent source of supply.”
 
rcw1 said:
Good morning
Financial Review article published yesterday 14/11/22. The Malaysian issues have caught the eye of journalist Brad Thompson. This memo dated 27/02/2020 relates in part to this article.


For mine, cannot for the life of rcw1 believe that Amanda and the Board would be that silly as to compromise their ability to maintain operations. When questioned by media Amanda's reported response was, “It is a challenging timeframe and no, there’s no update. At this stage, we continue to manage all elements of that plant to be able to bring it online in the event that we are unable to continue to produce in Malaysia,” she said. Apt and to the point, ha ha ha ha ha ha.

The political beast may dictate otherwise should the LYC plant in Kalgoorlie not be ready to rock and roll 01/07/23. Having said this, will continue to trade LYC when opportunities present, at this point in time.

Key deadline looms for Lynas’ $575m processing plant​

View attachment 149264
Brad ThompsonReporter
Nov 14, 2022 – 5.00am

Lynas Rare Earths is having an each-way bet as it races to finish a new $575 million processing plant at Kalgoorlie in time to meet a deadline imposed by Malaysian authorities. The company says it is on target to have the cracking and leaching plant up and running by July 1. That is when Malaysia authorities have told Lynas it must stop cracking and leaching rare earths mined in Western Australia at its downstream processing plant at Kuantan on the South-East Asian nation’s east coast.

The Kalgoorlie plant is rapidly taking shape just south of the historic gold mining town, but some long-time Lynas watchers doubt it will be ready in time.

Lynas is the only significant producer of strategically important separated rare earths outside of China – something that is unlikely to change any time soon – and any delay or threat to its production will concern the company’s Japan Inc and Pentagon backers.

It makes sense for Lynas to have a back-up plan. The company has asked Malaysia, where it is regulated by the Atomic Energy Licensing Board (AELB), to review the terms of its licence to operate in the country. However, Lynas has some rusted on critics in Malaysian politics and in the community despite being a big employer and producing materials crucial in greenhouse gas-reducing technologies.

The Lynas licence to operate is up for renewal in March. When it was last up for renewal, one of four key conditions imposed by the Pakatan Harapan government was that Lynas move cracking and leaching, which produces a low-level radioactive Water Leach Purification residue, outside Malaysia before the July 1 deadline.

Beyond that date, Lynas will no longer be allowed to import rare earths, which have a naturally occurring radioactivity, straight from its Mt Weld mine in WA to Kuantan. Lynas wants the condition removed but has kept very quiet about its application. There was speculation that Lynas was trying to have the condition removed as far back as May, but back then the AELB denied it had received any application.

Malaysia’s science, technology and innovation minister, Adham Baba, eventually confirmed the Lynas application was being evaluated after being asked about the matter in parliament. Lynas managing director Amanda Lacaze must think there is at least a glimmer of hope the application will succeed, given her curious answer to a recent question about the progress at Kalgoorlie and hitting the challenging July 1 deadline. “It is a challenging timeframe and no, there’s no update. At this stage, we continue to manage all elements of that plant to be able to bring it online in the event that we are unable to continue to produce in Malaysia,” she said.

Doubts over the deadline​

Although critics in Malaysia have stirred controversy over the low-level radioactivity associated with rare earths, the Lynas operations and waste storage plans in Australia – where the long-standing mineral sands industry routinely deals with higher levels of radioactivity – have barely raised an eyebrow with environmental watchdogs and green groups.

Ord Minnett analyst Dylan Kelly, who has followed Lynas’ journey for years, doubts the company can hit the deadline at Kalgoorlie.

“We remain sceptical that the project remains ‘on time and on budget’, but we are less concerned with cost overruns due to the $1 billion cash buffer [held by Lynas],” he said in a note to clients after Lynas revealed a not completely unexpected 15 per cent blow out in costs at Kalgoorlie. “However, we reiterate that being ‘on time’ for July 1, 2023, remains essential to comply with its Malaysian regulations.”

Ord Minnett has a sell rating on the stock but welcomed a move by Lynas backer JARE, a special purpose company established by Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation and Sojitz Corporation, to remove its capital management restrictions on the company.

Canaccord Genuity has a buy rating on Lynas, even though analyst Reg Spencer is also wary about it hitting the Kalgoorlie deadline.
The optimists see a potential win-win for Lynas whereby Malaysia allows cracking and leaching to continue and Kalgoorlie comes online before or after July 1. That would give Lynas a mid-stream production boost as it invests $500 million in increasing upstream output from Mt Weld and builds a heavy and light rare earths separation facility somewhere in the Gulf of Texas, helped by funding from the US Department of Defence.


Lynas announced in August that it was stepping up growth plans and intended to increase throughput capacity at Mt Weld from 300,000 tonnes a year to 1.3 million tonnes a year. The move is designed to increase neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) production to 12,000 tonnes a year by 2024, with Lynas also flagging plans for two additional growth projects that could take it to nearly 17,000 tonnes a year.

Hosting US royalty​

The previous target, announced in May 2019, was to be producing 10,500 tonnes a year of NdPr by 2025. Lynas revised its target based on growth in demand for permanent magnets needed in electric vehicles, wind turbines, defence applications and in other now everyday technologies.

The chances of success for Lynas and its backers start at Mt Weld, about 30 kilometres from Laverton and nearly 400 kilometres by road north of Kalgoorlie.

View attachment 149263View attachment 149263

JARE is helping fund more exploration work there and last month the huge, rare earths deposit, which sits in a two billion-year-old volcanic plug, was visited by US political royalty. Ms Lacaze hosted US ambassador to Australia Caroline Kennedy on a tour of the remote mine and the plant under construction at Kalgoorlie, in another reminder of Lynas’ standing with Australia’s allies as a non-China supplier of rare earths.

The federal government is providing funding for mineral sands producer Iluka Resources to build Australia’s first fully integrated rare earths refinery at Eneabba in WA, but so far Iluka doesn’t have a rare earths mine.

Iluka last month moved to secure feedstock from Northern Minerals, now under the leadership of Lynas founder Nick Curtis, to supplement the large monazite-rich stockpiles left behind from mineral sands mining it intends to process at Eneabba.

The deal could result in Iluka emerging with a 19.9 per cent stake in Northern Minerals and its heavy rare earths Browns Range project. Iluka is also weighing up rare earths mining at Wimmera in Victoria. Meanwhile, there continues to be great excitement about anything that resembles a hint of a significant hard rock rare earths or critical minerals discovery.

Junior explorer WA1 Resources’ share price jumped more than 400 per cent on October 26 after a single drill hole indicated it had discovered a carbonatite mineral system in outback WA. Such systems host all three of the world’s operating niobium mines and Mt Weld.

There is also a growing band of explorers looking at clay-hosted rare earths projects, including a cluster around Esperance in WA that includes OD6 Metals, Mt Ridley Mines, Meeka Metals, Heavy Rare Earths Limited and West Cobar Metals.

The OD6 share price more than doubled last week when it announced assay results showing some of the highest grade and thickest clay-hosted rare earths intersections in Australia.

Different approaches​

Clay deposits are easier to mine but generally much lower grade than hard rock rare earths deposits. The rare earths produced from mining don’t require cracking and the processing and separation process is well established in China. China has exploited its clay-hosted rare earths using a technique known as in-situ leaching where miners have injected tonnes of ammonium sulfate, ammonium chloride and other chemicals into the ground and caused major environmental damage. Authorities in China have cracked down on this kind of mining and there is no suggestion that emerging players in Australia would seek to use such environmentally damaging methods.

Mr Spencer said Canaccord was keeping an eye on the clay hopefuls given the demand for non-China rare earths supply. He said their future was likely to come down to grade, as with many other mining projects.

“The world is going to need more rare earths, and we are all living under a cloud of geopolitical uncertainty whereby on any day of the week China could cease exports of rare earths oxides or even magnets to the rest of the world,” he said.

“Given that they control 90 per cent of the rare earths market the rest of the world needs to have an independent source of supply.”
Click to expand...
Good share and informative.
The delay is obvious because of ambitious target.
But process wise with guarantee off take there is no fatal flaw.
Enjoy holders
 
Miner said:
Good share and informative.
The delay is obvious because of ambitious target.
But process wise with guarantee off take there is no fatal flaw.
Enjoy holders
Click to expand...
Good morning Miner,
Most kind of you and have a great day, today.

Just picked up on another article concerning LYC from Macquarie Equities:

Macquarie Equities downgrades Lynas Rare Earths to Neutral and trims its target price 4.2 per cent to $9.10 a share after lowering its rare earths price forecasts. The broker notes that non-electric vehicle sectors remain a key demand driver for rare earths demand and have underperformed due to a combination of logistic disruptions and weak consumer confidence.
"The weakness in consumer-driven demand was reflected in smartphone sales inCY22 to date, which declined for the last two consecutive quarters," Macquarie says."However, we also note signs of NdPr price support from rising pressures on rare earthsconcentrate costs.

In the past six months, Baosteel tried twice to raise the prices of concentrate supplied to China Northern Rare Earth.
"The revised demand and supply outlook sees a cut in near-term price forecasts. Macquarie now expects prices to peak at US$130 a tonne in late 2024 versus $135 previously, and sees NdPr prices trading sub US$100/t in the next six months as it expects any easing of
Covid restrictions in China will be at a measured pace this winter in China.

"While we believe Lynas enjoys a valuation premium given it is world’s only significant producer of separated rare earth materials outside of China, its earnings outlook depends on commodity prices outlook," the broker says, noting its recent strong shareprice performance and persisting near term NdPr price headwinds.

Incorporating the rare earths price forecast downgrades lowers Macquarie's FY23 and FY24 earnings by 27 and 11 per cent, and trims its FY25 and FY26 estimates decrease by 7 and 4 per cent respectively. It's longer term forecasts are little changed.LYC last $9.15.
 
Good morning
LYC AGM yesterday (29/11/22) report too large to upload.

A slide contained within report depicts five kilotonnes (kt) of Neodymium-Praseodymium (NdPr) oxide is required for 10 million hybrid electric vehicles, moreover a further seven kt of NdPr oxide is needed for 10 million battery electric vehicles.
3 kt of NpPr oxide per 10 GW capacity direct drive wind turbine.

REE believers, this is a good read.

See what the SP does today. rcw1 holding.

Liked the video presentation.



Have a very nice day today.

Kind regards
rcw1
 
Good morning
**** Go Australia in the cricket :) ****

rcw1 is participating in the Unofficial Full CY 2023 Stock Tipping Competition ... LYC is number two of the four chosen.

Why then?
rcw1 and LYC relationship goes back to 2019. Have traded LYC successfully now for a very long time, 'religiously' as a matter of course. It has never disappointed rcw1. Having said this, there will always be a first-time ha ha ha ha ha. Hopefully that won't be anytime soon...
Milked the cow... so to speak.

Acknowledge Mahail who advocated for this stock within the Commsec Community Forum.

Have studied and researched this company back to front and inside out. For mine, there are three (3) very important favourable considerations and yet they are so simple:
1) The CEO is Amanda Margaret Lacaze a true shining light;
2) Rare Earth Elements (REE) is not going away, in fact for mine, as technologies improve so will the application/use of REE; and
3) The company is best placed to take forward what is required regarding production and supply chains, moreover the US Defense Force is a great demand construct...

Should anybody want any further information on this stock, happy to take a PM anytime.

Have a very nice day, today.

Kind Regards
rcw1
 
rcw1 said:
Good morning
**** Go Australia in the cricket :) ****

rcw1 is participating in the Unofficial Full CY 2023 Stock Tipping Competition ... LYC is number two of the four chosen.

Why then?
rcw1 and LYC relationship goes back to 2019. Have traded LYC successfully now for a very long time, 'religiously' as a matter of course. It has never disappointed rcw1. Having said this, there will always be a first-time ha ha ha ha ha. Hopefully that won't be anytime soon...
Milked the cow... so to speak.

Acknowledge Mahail who advocated for this stock within the Commsec Community Forum.

Have studied and researched this company back to front and inside out. For mine, there are three (3) very important favourable considerations and yet they are so simple:
1) The CEO is Amanda Margaret Lacaze a true shining light;
2) Rare Earth Elements (REE) is not going away, in fact for mine, as technologies improve so will the application/use of REE; and
3) The company is best placed to take forward what is required regarding production and supply chains, moreover the US Defense Force is a great demand construct...

Should anybody want any further information on this stock, happy to take a PM anytime.

Have a very nice day, today.

Kind Regards
rcw1
Click to expand...

Isn't Lynas dependent on Malaysia and China for REO processing? Doesn't that hurt Lynas when most Western governments are seeking to distance themselves from China?
 
waterbottle said:
Isn't Lynas dependent on Malaysia and China for REO processing? Doesn't that hurt Lynas when most Western governments are seeking to distance themselves from China?
Click to expand...
Lyc is very ambitious of their off take guarantee and product.
So they are going to ramp up with the probability of skipping one important of gates of project execution.
That's a smart move provided the reworks are well managed and engineering is matured enough.
It was not very long ago Malaysian govt had a go with LYC. But since then new management specially the CEO with a very high bonus and favourable govt.
DNH
 

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