LYC - Lynas Rare Earths

[JohnDe]

Sell off today. Troubles with LYC, or just the whole market? Rare earths sentiment is flying.

 

[DrBourse]

Sell off today. Troubles with LYC, or just the whole market? Rare earths sentiment is flying.



View attachment 147292

Yeah "sentiment is flying OUT THE WINDOW".
After you all read that article JD just posted - suggest that REE Punters do a Google Search for "Alternatives to Rare Earth Elements", that search may explain the Troubles with REE Stocks.

 

[rcw1]

Sell off today. Troubles with LYC, or just the whole market? Rare earths sentiment is flying.



View attachment 147292

Good afternoon Johnde
For mine, the whole market.
Not holding at present, and nearly picked up but decided not to. Looking very closely

Have a very nice day, today.


Kind regards
rcw1

 

[JohnDe]

Good afternoon Johnde
For mine, the whole market.
Not holding at present, and nearly picked up but decided not to. Looking very closely

Have a very nice day, today.


Kind regards
rcw1

Looking good today rcw1

I did pick up. The question now is - hold or sell.

 

[Gunnerguy]

I closed my $9/$9.5 Call credit spread for a nice profit yesterday.
Selling a $6.75/$6.25 Put spread today. If it drops I’ll ‘probably’ STC the lower leg for some more PM and maybe happy to be assigned.
Gunnerguy

 

[rcw1]

Looking good today rcw1

I did pick up. The question now is - hold or sell.

Good morning JohnDe
rcw1 held overnight. Sold at a good profit.
Numbers looking really good. rcw1 might pick up again yet, I’ll let you know.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[rcw1]

Good evening
$0.13 variance today LYC SP. Makes it difficult to trade. Anyways, always next week to look forward to. Oh the joy of it all.

Have a very nice long weekend.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[rcw1]

Good morning

Macquarie raised LYC to outperform, the Australian Financial Review reported. Analysts have placed a $9.40 price target on Lynas shares.
Have a very nice weekend.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[DrBourse]

Hi rcw1.

B careful with LYC – Rare Earths may become obsolete &/or irrelevant in the near future.

Spin doctors may use their excessive enthusiasm to convince Newbies that LYC is the next best thing to Sliced Bread, all in an attempt to pump up the SP so they can sell at a profit B4 the LYC Ship Sinks.

Part of the reason for LYC’s recent pullback is because New Technologies are evolving atm, they will prob take 5 years to develop into a marketable product, but the writing is on the wall for some of the important Rare Earths.
Google "Alternatives to Rare Earths".

Just ran my slide rule over LYC this morning –

Bad points = Bad PE in relation to NTA, Price is trading at well above NTA, SP is expensive in relation to Av of Last 3 Yrs EPS, Excessive Debt relative to Owners Earnings.

Good Points = Balance Sheet Ratios & Margins of Safety (MOS) rate as “Good”.


LYC’s current IV is $7.11 to $7.96. (the Dark Maroon Rectangle on the Chart below)
The Ord Minnett call of $4.85 is pretty close to my TA call of $5.11, Note the recent Triple Top, then the Lower Highs & Lower Lows.
View attachment 146758

I personally like the Ord Minnett “direct and blunt attitude” to their analysis.


All I’m suggesting is that you “Be Careful” with the Rare Earths Sector.

AND

That you do Lots, and Lots of your own research.

Remember that the idea is to buy stocks that are Below their calculated Intrinsic Value - LYC is way above that figure, and as the LYC SP drops, their IV will also drop, until the SP reaches a price that matches the "Average Punters expectations."

As usual, I’m Happy to email my research to you.



Cheers M8.

Hi rcw.
My last post was back on 13/9/22 when LYC was $8.82 (see my previous chart) - Back then I mentioned that the LYC IV was $7.11 to $7.96 - well the current LYC SP of $7.56 is approaching the lower end of that call, which is where I feel the "Average Punters expectations" are.
However the Chart below suggests that LYC should fall to somewhere between Point A $7.05 & Point B $6.85, so there is still a bit more to go IMO.

Might mention that LYC's ADR's are all in a similar position - LYIC (on the FWB), and LYSCF & LYSDY (both on the OTC), all 3 were down slightly, so IMO another couple of small drops are on the cards for our LYC.
As usual M8, DYOR, my TA settings cater for my Level of Risk, so my calculations may not be as tollerant as yours.
Cheers.

 

[rcw1]

Nice work, thanks very much for that DrBourse.


Kind regards
rcw1

 

[Gunnerguy]

I’m wanting to sell some put spreads a lot lower say $5.50/$5.00. If it drops I’ll sell the deep long, pick up some extra PM, and then possibly buy a bucketfull for the long term, and sell covered calls for more PM.
Gunnerguy

 

[rcw1]

I’m wanting to sell some put spreads a lot lower say $5.50/$5.00. If it drops I’ll sell the deep long, pick up some extra PM, and then possibly buy a bucketfull for the long term, and sell covered calls for more PM.
Gunnerguy

Good afternoon Gunnerguy
Read your post a number of times to work out what you were saying, rcw1 not the smartest tool in the shed...
All and all, for mine, good plan, all the best with this strategy.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[JohnDe]

Hi rcw1.

B careful with LYC – Rare Earths may become obsolete &/or irrelevant in the near future.

Spin doctors may use their excessive enthusiasm to convince Newbies that LYC is the next best thing to Sliced Bread, all in an attempt to pump up the SP so they can sell at a profit B4 the LYC Ship Sinks.

Part of the reason for LYC’s recent pullback is because New Technologies are evolving atm, they will prob take 5 years to develop into a marketable product, but the writing is on the wall for some of the important Rare Earths.



Cheers M8.

Have you changed theory?

 

[rcw1]

Have you changed theory?

Picked up this arvo JohnDe

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[JohnDe]

Picked up this arvo JohnDe

Kind regards
rcw1

A good gamble. Personally, I think LYC still has growth prospects. Many governments want to minimise their dependance on China rare earth supply, so that means that here will be increased interest in mining and production in companies like LYC.

My original comment that you have quoted was meant for DrBourse, who stated that "excessive enthusiasm" in LYC is misled because LYC was on the down because of "new technologies evolving".

DrBourse may be right, but he gave no evidence other than to tell everyone to google 'new technologies'. His last post was confusing for me, so I just wanted some clarification from him.

 

[rcw1]

A good gamble. Personally, I think LYC still has growth prospects. Many governments want to minimise their dependance on China rare earth supply, so that means that here will be increased interest in mining and production in companies like LYC.

My original comment that you have quoted was meant for DrBourse, who stated that "excessive enthusiasm" in LYC is misled because LYC was on the down because of "new technologies evolving".

DrBourse may be right, but he gave no evidence other than to tell everyone to google 'new technologies'. His last post was confusing for me, so I just wanted some clarification from him.

Good afternoon
Supply of REE for military application is of grave concern by the US if supply is heavily reliant upon China. LYC to the rescue

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[rcw1]

Picked up this arvo JohnDe

Kind regards
rcw1

Good afternoon
Sold holding

Have a very nice day.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[rcw1]

Good morning
Interesting article written by Simply Wall Street, Yahoo News published this morning (07/10/22) about who controls (share ownership) of LYC. With 58% stake, individual investors possess the maximum shares in the company.

Other matters of interest being LYC historical earnings and revenue graph.

Individual investors who hold 58% of Lynas Rare Earths Limited (ASX:LYC) gained 5.4%, institutions profited as well

If you want to know who really controls Lynas Rare Earths Limited ( ASX:LYC ), then you'll have to look at the makeup...

nz.news.yahoo.com

Have a great weekend.

Kind regards
rcw

 

[rcw1]

Good afternoon
Picked up
kind regards
rcw1

 

[rcw1]

Lynas Western​

13 October at 23:28 ·

Delighted to welcome U.S. Ambassador Caroline Kennedy and U.S. Consul General in WA Ms Siriana Nair for a tour of our Western Australian operations - from Mt Weld where it all begins to our new Kalgoorlie Rare Earths Processing Facility.














+3

U.S. Consulate Perth​

13 October at 23:17 ·
The U.S. is committed to advancing economic prosperity and WA is central to this vision.
Ambassador Caroline Kennedy and Consul General Siriana Nair had an excellent visit yesterday to Lynas Western's rare earths operations in WA’s Goldfields region, seeing firsthand the production and processing needed for the rare earths necessary to the green technologies that will allow us to meet our net zero goals.
As the only ASX-listed company with both a female CEO and chairperson, it was especially pleasing to meet with Lynas’ leadership team.
Lynas also recently signed a US$120 million contract with the U.S. Department of Defense to build a commercial light and heavy rare earths facility in the United States, showing our alliance in action.
PS- Can you spot the American tank on the site? It’s the Kansas company’s largest in the southern hemisphere and has 960,000 bolts!

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