January 2025 DDD

[ducati916]

Good for my btc portfolio

Clearly yes it will.

To a point.

Currently (absent any issues with Tether etc) the correct strategy has been to buy and hold. That will continue to be the correct strategy until the correct strategy is to be the first to sell.

Then it returns to zero as it will all be owned by a very small group or even a single person.



Credit spreads are insanely tight. As such, the risk is incredibly high.



Pretty high multipliers being accorded to earnings. Again, risk increases.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

May finally un-invert.

This has been written off as an indicator worth watching, simply I think because of the length of time that it has remained inverted. Big mistake. This has a good track record.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Musk wants his crusade to radically slash federal spending to resemble what is underway in Argentina, where the leader's name is now synonymous with drastic budget cuts.

Why it matters: Musk previewed last month how influential he might be on Trump-era fiscal matters.

• His admiration of the "chainsaw-like" approach in Argentina shows how hard he could push to axe the size of America's government — maybe with some success.

What they're saying: "The example you are setting with Argentina will be a helpful model for the rest of the world," Musk told Argentine President Javier Milei in an exchange on social media platform X.

• Vivek Ramaswamy, tapped by Trump to lead the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) alongside Musk, said late last year: "A reasonable formula to fix the U.S. government: Milei-style cuts, on steroids."

The big picture: The U.S. fiscal situation is starkly different from that of Argentina, a nation prone to financial and economic crises stemming from government overspending and sovereign debt defaults.

• Milei, a self-described "anarcho-capitalist," has been cheered by U.S. right-wing politicians who see his rise as an example of Trump-like populism spreading beyond America's shores.
• Most appealing to Musk and others might be how the eccentric economist — known to pose with a chainsaw to signal his affinity for spending cuts — has defied global naysayers with unconventional policies that look successful.

"Milei has changed the conversation about economic policy — not only in Argentina, but I think maybe a little bit more generally, too," Steve Hanke, a Johns Hopkins University professor who advised Argentina's economic officials in the 1990s, tells Axios.

• "But there is a tremendous amount of low-hanging fruit to pick in Argentina — it's just a different system," Hanke adds.

Between the lines: Milei cut government spending by about 30%, roughly in line with the share of spending DOGE wants to eliminate in the U.S.

• But spending cuts in Argentina happened in a very different context. Milei's austerity measures aimed to arrest double-digit inflation after years of failed economic reforms.

"There's a real sense of urgency in Argentina, that something dramatic has to be done to save them from the abyss," Cato Institute's Johan Norberg, who interviewed Musk and Milei in Buenos Aires last year, tells Axios.

• "Musk almost single-handedly has shifted the debate in the U.S. — suddenly there is a discussion about spending and whether things can be reformed," Norberg says.
• "That doesn't mean there is a popular mandate to do it, because I'm not sure that sense of urgency is there."

Milei laid off thousands of federal workers, scrapped many of the subsidies supporting Argentinians, eliminated government agencies and halted public works projects.

• Inflation has plunged as a result of Milei's shock therapy: In November, it was 2.4%, well below the 25% when he took office.

Yes, but: Milei's shock therapy comes at a steep cost to the real economy. Poverty rates last year soared to the highest in 20 years, according to the government's statistics agency.

Before DOGE is implemented, US debt must be restructured. You cut GDP before you restructure debt, you collapse revenues, you increase defaults.

Debt:




Which would drive a stronger USD...exactly what we don't want. Stronger USD causes selling of US assets (outlined above by foreign holders).



Very choppy market.

I've made a few trades today but mostly sitting tight waiting for a trend to develop. It will likely remain choppy until Trump takes over and the chump Biden is relegated to the history books.

US markets are closed for Jimmy Carter's funeral on Thursday.

jog on
duc

 

[divs4ever]

View attachment 190552

May finally un-invert.

This has been written off as an indicator worth watching, simply I think because of the length of time that it has remained inverted. Big mistake. This has a good track record.

jog on
duc

yes i want to see IF the normalizing of the yield curve is a 'nothing-burger ' ( although it should be a leading indicator , not an immediate trigger ) before dismissing it's relevance .

what we should also consider is the yield curve this time has been massively manipulated ( and has little to do with 'free market ' forces , currently )

 

[ducati916]

yes i want to see IF the normalizing of the yield curve is a 'nothing-burger ' ( although it should be a leading indicator , not an immediate trigger ) before dismissing it's relevance .

what we should also consider is the yield curve this time has been massively manipulated ( and has little to do with 'free market ' forces , currently )

Obviously the Fed control the FFR which essentially follows the 2yr.

The Fed (unless they return to QE and effective YCC) do not control the long end.

Therefore 'currently' the curve is not manipulated.

Of course whether that remains the case is the question. With $7 Trillion rolling over this year, $2.5 Trillion in deficits and possibly a lot higher, I would say unlikely. The only way this does not blow-up is that the Fed returns to effective QE and devalues the USD via much higher inflation. Which means that the 10yr must come way back lower in yield.



ATM we are at 4.5%.

The consensus has the breaking point at 5%.

USD



My view is that the USD drives this process, not the 10yr. However, whichever it is, it needs to calm the f*ck down otherwise stocks are going to have a moment.

Trump with his tariffs, taxes, DOGE and BTC policies will not be driving a weakening of the USD, although he is aware (or his Treasury chap Bessent is) that the USD is an issue. Before all the above, debt needs to be restructured via a devaluation. The best way would be via gold, but, Trump is suggesting possibly via BTC, which is IMO driving the current price action in BTC (along with price insensitive buyers like MSTR).

jog on
duc