Israel - Palestine

[Garpal Gumnut]

Could any fellow ASF members with knowledge of flights out of Israel or Amman, Jordan outside of that available on Google or Duckduckgo searching please DM me.

I have an elder friend, a Christian pilgrim, stuck in Bethlehem atm. who wishes to leave to get home to Australia.

Excuse if I don't reply straightaway as I'm off to bed, I've been up all night.

gg

 

[Knobby22]

Listening to an Australian middle east expert on this and what the Israeli's will be most concerned about is a possible attack from Hezbollah from the Lebanese border. They have far more rockets and better trained soldiers who were battle hardened fighting in Syria. A fourth front will be hard to cope with.

The second concern is the failure of intelligence. The breach was made with a bulldozer that they should have seen coming. The Gaza strip has far less informants than the West Bank ut this was carefully planned over many months without the Israelis being aware. The taking of so many hostages makes it difficult for the airforce to bomb sites.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Could any fellow ASF members with knowledge of flights out of Israel or Amman, Jordan outside of that available on Google or Duckduckgo searching please DM me.

I have an elder friend, a Christian pilgrim, stuck in Bethlehem atm. who wishes to leave to get home to Australia.

Excuse if I don't reply straightaway as I'm off to bed, I've been up all night.

wouldn't think Amman is a candidate.. Allenby bridge is (?) one-way

the diaspora is returning (reservists to answer the call) so empty seats wouldn't be impossible to find. I saw mention of 20 flights out of Cyprus , for example.. But they may be military flights.

EDIT .. from DW

At least 80 passenger flights to Tel Aviv canceled​

Airlines have canceled more than 80 flights to and from Tel Aviv following Hamas' incursion in Israeli territory.
This amounts to roughly 14% of all flights scheduled for Saturday evening

 

[The Triangle]

Listening to an Australian middle east expert on this and what the Israeli's will be most concerned about is a possible attack from Hezbollah from the Lebanese border. They have far more rockets and better trained soldiers who were battle hardened fighting in Syria. A fourth front will be hard to cope with.

The second concern is the failure of intelligence. The breach was made with a bulldozer that they should have seen coming. The Gaza strip has far less informants than the West Bank ut this was carefully planned over many months without the Israelis being aware. The taking of so many hostages makes it difficult for the airforce to bomb sites.

Was it failure by intelligence?

Or was it all part of the plan to continue to consolidate power, continue to weaken the judiciary, and show the 'people' that only Ole Benny can protect them. Men will do anything to stay in power.

Hard to believe Israel is all off a sudden this blind.

Over half of Israelis scared of a civil war - poll

A majority of Israelis (55%) polled are interested in a return to talks on the judicial reform.

m.jpost.com

 

[Knobby22]

Was it failure by intelligence?

Or was it all part of the plan to continue to consolidate power, continue to weaken the judiciary, and show the 'people' that only Ole Benny can protect them. Men will do anything to stay in power.

Hard to believe Israel is all off a sudden this blind.

Over half of Israelis scared of a civil war - poll

A majority of Israelis (55%) polled are interested in a return to talks on the judicial reform.

m.jpost.com

Well if so, which I doubt, it's a lot worse than what they thought would happen. This is actually embarrassing for him.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

wouldn't think Amman is a candidate.. Allenby bridge is (?) one-way

the diaspora is returning (reservists to answer the call) so empty seats wouldn't be impossible to find. I saw mention of 20 flights out of Cyprus , for example.. But they may be military flights.

EDIT .. from DW

At least 80 passenger flights to Tel Aviv canceled​

Airlines have canceled more than 80 flights to and from Tel Aviv following Hamas' incursion in Israeli territory.
This amounts to roughly 14% of all flights scheduled for Saturday evening

Interesting point re Allenby. I think its ok West Bank - Jordan with a visa, although how to obtain one is a question.

It was all much easier when King Edward VIII ruled the waves. Perhaps they were better days.

gg

 

[wayneL]

Hezbollah joining in. This is going to be major.

 

[Knobby22]

Hezbollah joining in. This is going to be major.

Source?

 

[wayneL]

Source?

I have a close friend who is Jewish with family there... X is now lighting up with reports.

 

[DB008]

​

 

[Dona Ferentes]

I have a close friend who is Jewish with family there... X is now lighting up with reports.

the IDF have mobilised, across the country. 150k reserves called up.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

​

or ....

.
line in sand/ matter of time?

 

[DB008]

Can't be verified, but this is certainly very interesting.....

​

 

[wayneL]

line in sand/ matter of time?

Yes, I can't see this doing anything but escalating tragically

 

[Sean K]

Declaring war on Hamas has some second or third order effects such as identifying the weapons used against Israel and having some sort of mandate to prevent any further deliveries. Although, I think they were already trying to do that. What Iran, Syria and Russia do here is going to be interesting. Talk of this being a 9/11 moment for Israel puts it in a bit of perspective. I can't see how Palestine can justify this due to the 'blockade'. Abducting women and children and sending 3000+ rockets indiscriminately into civilian cities and townships is a crime against humanity. No matter whether you're on the Palestinian or Israeli side or not this looks like it's going to get very loose.

 

[Smurf1976]

No matter whether you're on the Palestinian or Israeli side or not this looks like it's going to get very loose.

According to news media reports Iran is siding with Palestine whilst Kuwait and Qatar have both said Israel is to blame.

Figures vary somewhat by source but Iran produces circa 3.3 million barrels of oil per day, Kuwait 2.55 million and Qatar about 1.35 million so that's 7.2 million barrels per day between them.

Where I'm going with that is this basic scenario is extremely similar to the trigger for the 1973-74 Oil Embargo and comes 50 years and 1 day after that event. The Oil Embargo being triggered not by war blowing up oil facilities but simply because the West sided with Israel and that upset the Arabs who then cut off supply.

If those siding with Palestine were to simply repeat that event then, from a Western perspective, here comes a crisis.

 

[Sean K]

According to news media reports Iran is siding with Palestine whilst Kuwait and Qatar have both said Israel is to blame.

Figures vary somewhat by source but Iran produces circa 3.3 million barrels of oil per day, Kuwait 2.55 million and Qatar about 1.35 million so that's 7.2 million barrels per day between them.

Where I'm going with that is this basic scenario is extremely similar to the trigger for the 1973-74 Oil Embargo and comes 50 years and 1 day after that event. The Oil Embargo being triggered not by war blowing up oil facilities but simply because the West sided with Israel and that upset the Arabs who then cut off supply.

If those siding with Palestine were to simply repeat that event then, from a Western perspective, here comes a crisis.

A summary of who is with who:

 

[Knobby22]

Declaring war on Hamas has some second or third order effects such as identifying the weapons used against Israel and having some sort of mandate to prevent any further deliveries. Although, I think they were already trying to do that. What Iran, Syria and Russia do here is going to be interesting. Talk of this being a 9/11 moment for Israel puts it in a bit of perspective. I can't see how Palestine can justify this due to the 'blockade'. Abducting women and children and sending 3000+ rockets indiscriminately into civilian cities and townships is a crime against humanity. No matter whether you're on the Palestinian or Israeli side or not this looks like it's going to get very loose.

It's effectively a big prison. A blockade with a wall surround. The inmates tend to get a bit cranky.

The soldiers won't go in too far. Urban fighting will cause too many losses.

And it looks like Hezbollah isn't joining in.
Just a few minor strikes on 3 disputed territories. They are showing solidarity, but that's it.

This will drag on, but the danger to Israel is essentially over.

 

[Smurf1976]

A summary of who is with who:

Hadn't realised Oman and Saudi were on side with Palestine too.

Add them in and that's a major chunk of oil supply coming from countries the West is off side with.

That's not to say oil's the only concern obviously but it's a very real practical implication if this escalates to any sort of trade embargo. Bearing in mind that doesn't need anything to be blown up, it just needs oil produces to be angry at the West for its position on the issue. That's what happened last time - a 5 month physical oil embargo and a 12 year price shock triggered by a war that lasted 19 days.

 

[Sean K]

This will drag on, but the danger to Israel is essentially over.

Probably is over, but Israel seems to be going all-in on a revenge mission. I think the entire West Bank is going to be a war zone for months.

It's going to be hard for Palestinian supporters to stay out of it and the attempted 'normalisation' between the Saudis and Israel will probably be toast.

This has set back peace in the Middle East and any attempt at a 'two-party state' back decades, if not 100 years.