DeepState
Multi-Strategy, Quant and Fundamental
- Joined
- 30 March 2014
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Pascal's wager is flawed,
Firstly it is based on there only being two options, but really there are thousands of different versions of gods,
So the first flaw is that you may pick the wrong god, and just make the real god madder, most of the religions have the largest sin as being worshipping a false god, if the Muslims are right, and you have been worshipping Jesus, your screwed.
The second flaw is that its not a free bet, if you really want to get to heaven, you have to give up things in this life and perhaps even reject people whom you would live a better life by embracing. Giving up things in this life is a real cost.
The third flaw, is that Pascal's wager assumes you can fool a god into letting you into heaven by offering half assed belief.
Pascal did not specify which God. Only God. Not THE God. Just, God. You can have the God of green frogs etc. His wager only allows for the selection of one. It is silent on the process and the outcome of doing this.
If there is a God and the possibility of non belief brings severe consequences then, without knowing the identity for certain, it is still logically sensible to believe in one. Not believing in any brings zero chance of salvation. For the possibility to exist of some other true God to punish you upon arrival in the afterlife to be a factor, you must first believe in the presence of a God...here we are again. You just can't tell which. But if you do not choose, you're totally cactus anyway. If you disagree, you are actually digging into Pascal by acknowledging that there is a God with some probability, but the choice is hard to get right. True, but not making a choice, the best you can make, is to say that none exist. Pascal can't be sure of that. If you want to attack something, this would be the thing.
Pascal did not say it was a free bet. It was simply a bet whose cost was small relative to the potential consequences. Relative to eternal damnation, most things look like small inconveniences or sacrifices - they are not free.
Pascal makes no comment on half-arsed beliefs. He states in belief of God. The wager requires providing the conditions required to attain salvation. It is you who presume his/others' beliefs in God are half-arsed. There are many pathways to becoming religious and to believe in (a) God. One is the decision to believe, or suspension of disbelief, however derived. Pascal is saying that rationality would lead you to make a choice in favour of believing in some God and acting in concert with those beliefs. Does the threat of eternal damnation for non-belief appear in various forms somewhere? Hell and stuff? In any case, his statement that you must actually believe in God and God needs to exist for this to work is hardly a flaw. If your (half-arsed) belief is not of the type that the true God requires for entry, you don't get entry rights. How is his argument flawed, exactly? It may be that someone's attempt at executing his argument doesn't meet the grade. The argument stands aside from the competency of the implementation. The argument is not flawed.
The strange cases are where there is a God, but He takes you in no matter what. For Pascal, that would mean that you are either deliberately doing what you do in the knowledge that God is open-minded and will accept you unconditionally even if you believe in another false God. Or, the funny twist, you do not believe in God, live your life accordingly, and yet God exists and takes you in. Belief was not a requirement at all as a condition of entry. This is Pascal by accident.
Neither of the two above lead to a conclusion that belief in some God isn't a rational choice to make.