Is Global Warming becoming unstoppable?

[Smurf1976]

I don't have the answer to that but I find it hard to believe it's totally inconsequential

That sums up my thinking on the whole issue.

All the coal, oil and gas burned ultimately ends up as heat added to the atmosphere. We also add heat to the atmosphere from other sources such as nuclear fission and primary electricity (hydro, wind etc - electricity that wasn't obtained from a heat source).

Now that might seem inconsequential at the level of your own house but even in a city the size of Adelaide there's a measurable local effect in the CBD versus suburbs versus country areas. Needless to say that phenomenon is more pronounced in larger cities.

So we know we can alter the climate in cities. Then we need to consider that much of the heat isn't released in cities because things like large factories and power stations are typically located somewhere else, often a very long way from any actual city. The largest point of heat release in Victoria for example is 150km away from Melbourne and the situation is similar with most cities.

Then there's things like aircraft, ships and ground transport all of which are mostly or at least substantially releasing their heat well away from cities.

Now that's heat not CO2 but all up there's a hell of a lot of it. I won't claim to know the effects but I very much doubt it is zero.

The same basic concept applies to everything man puts into the air. Added up there's a lot of it and the effects aren't going to be nothing at all and that's true whether it's carbon dioxide or if it's dichlorodifluoromethane.

 

[Darc Knight]

Geez, some of this is very worrying.

 

[Junior]

That sums up my thinking on the whole issue.

All the coal, oil and gas burned ultimately ends up as heat added to the atmosphere. We also add heat to the atmosphere from other sources such as nuclear fission and primary electricity (hydro, wind etc - electricity that wasn't obtained from a heat source).

Now that might seem inconsequential at the level of your own house but even in a city the size of Adelaide there's a measurable local effect in the CBD versus suburbs versus country areas. Needless to say that phenomenon is more pronounced in larger cities.

So we know we can alter the climate in cities. Then we need to consider that much of the heat isn't released in cities because things like large factories and power stations are typically located somewhere else, often a very long way from any actual city. The largest point of heat release in Victoria for example is 150km away from Melbourne and the situation is similar with most cities.

Then there's things like aircraft, ships and ground transport all of which are mostly or at least substantially releasing their heat well away from cities.

Now that's heat not CO2 but all up there's a hell of a lot of it. I won't claim to know the effects but I very much doubt it is zero.

The same basic concept applies to everything man puts into the air. Added up there's a lot of it and the effects aren't going to be nothing at all and that's true whether it's carbon dioxide or if it's dichlorodifluoromethane.

....and then observe the sheer scale of all this in somewhere like China, or India. I also think about the fact that more than half of the planet's forests have been levelled.

It blows me away that so many people think that all this human activity & distortion of the environment could have no effect on our climate.

 

[basilio]

Anyone going to hear this ?

Civilisation may 'collapse' if climate change ignored: Attenborough
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Katowice, Poland: Famed naturalist Sir David Attenborough says human civilisation may collapse unless the world takes action to curb climate change.

The British TV presenter of nature documentaries told leaders gathered for a UN climate summit Monday that "right now, we are facing a man-made disaster of global scale, our greatest threat in thousands of years."
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/wo...nge-ignored-attenborough-20181204-p50jzs.html

 

[basilio]

Closer to home and right now the multiple effects of CC are well and trult being felt by Queenslanders - whether they believe it or not.

Bushfires in the tropics: Queensland faces terrifying new reality
With cyclone season under way, exhausted emergency services are more aware than most that climate change is beginning to pose impossible challenges

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...land-terrifying-new-reality-cyclones-flooding

 

[basilio]

Latest research on melting of the Greenland Ice Cap.

Greenland's ice sheet melting rate is accelerating, scientists confirm
Key points:

• Greenland melting rate has been up to five times greater in last 20 years than pre-industrial rates
• Melting is following an exponential trajectory where small temperature increases equal much greater melt rates
• The Greenland ice sheet holds enough water to raise sea levels 7 metres

https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2018-12-06/greenland-ice-sheet-melting-accelerating/10581980

 

[explod]

No worries according to Andrew Bolt in the Herald Sun here today.

The absolute blindness of our community is the big thing washing us away.

Good posts recently and wish there was a sad tick box.

 

[Smurf1976]

http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/...-2.7,-world-'off-course'-to-curb-warming.html

Global emissions of carbon dioxide mainly from fossil fuel burning will rise 2.7 percent in 2018

I agree that it would be very wise to reduce emissions and indeed pollution in general but please don't anyone tell me that the rest of the world is doing so and Australia is the odd one out. Very clearly that isn't the case.

 

[basilio]

More unparalleled heat waves in OZ. Interestingly the article discuss many of the comments made by Smurf et al about the effects of extreme temperatures on infrastructure .

Extreme heatwave to stretch from northern WA to Adelaide and Melbourne
Western Australia's tropical north is about to experience a type of heat that is exceptional even for its standards.

Key points:

• Temperatures in some towns are forecast to hover in the mid-40s for consecutive days
• Fitzroy Crossing's forecast 47C maximum will be a record breaker for December
• The heat will extend in an arc down to Adelaide and Melbourne

Parts of the north will be gripped by an extreme heatwave — the highest intensity there is.

The Bureau Of Meteorology (BOM) defines a heatwave as three or more days in a row in which both day and night temperatures are unusually high for that specific location.

The temperature at Fitzroy Crossing is tipped to reach 47 degrees Celsius on Saturday, which would be a record breaker for December.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12...om-northern-wa-to-melbourne-adelaide/10590776

 

[Junior]

http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/...-2.7,-world-'off-course'-to-curb-warming.html



I agree that it would be very wise to reduce emissions and indeed pollution in general but please don't anyone tell me that the rest of the world is doing so and Australia is the odd one out. Very clearly that isn't the case.

This idea that the Western world got the privilege of being able to burn loads of coal, so therefore India, China, and the 3rd world etc. get to do the same until they are rich, is so absurd. Let's completely destroy the planet, in the pursuit of economic "fairness", and then try and deal with the fallout in a few decades' time.

Technology is advancing so rapidly in the energy space....surely there is no need to build any new coal-fired plants. Sure, keep what we have until they reach maturity, but there are so many cleaner options for new power generation.

 

[explod]

So early in summer its burning hot in WA and coming towards us:-

/www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-06/extreme-heatwave-from-northern-wa-to-melbourne-adelaide/10590776?smid=Page:%20ABC%20Rural-Facebook_Organic&WT.tsrc=Facebook_Organic&sf203777951=1&smid=Page:%20Gardening%20Australia-Facebook_Organic&WT.tsrc=Facebook_Organic&sf203817871=1

"Key points:

• Temperatures in some towns are forecast to hover in the mid-40s for consecutive days
• Fitzroy Crossing's forecast 47C maximum will be a record breaker for December
• The heat will extend in an arc down to Adelaide and Melbourne

Parts of the north will be gripped by an extreme heatwave — the highest intensity there is.

The Bureau Of Meteorology (BOM) defines a heatwave as three or more days in a row in which both day and night temperatures are unusually high for that specific location.

The temperature at Fitzroy Crossing is tipped to reach 47 degrees Celsius on Saturday, which would be a record breaker for December."

 

[Smurf1976]

Technology is advancing so rapidly in the energy space....surely there is no need to build any new coal-fired plants. Sure, keep what we have until they reach maturity, but there are so many cleaner options for new power generation.

There's also the question of efficiently operating what we've already got.

Eg Jeeralang is an old (commissioned 1979-80) and fairly inefficient gas-fired power station in Victoria. It was built by the former SECV for backup and peak load operation and whilst now dated it still performs that role well enough. So I'm not suggesting it be demolished or anything like that, it'll do another decade of service in its intended role which involves sitting there doing nothing most of the time but being capable of starting up quickly if needed.

But today is not a day of high demand, not even close, but there are some generating units at Jeeralang running. That certainly wasn't the intention when it was built.

Meanwhile in Adelaide there are 4 machines online at Torrens Island, all of which are more efficient than Jeeralang and all operating well below capacity.

Electricity is currently flowing from Vic to SA.

Costs and emissions could be cut within literally 5 minutes simply by transferring load from Jeeralang to Torrens Island thus gaining both more efficient generation and reducing transmission losses.

So why doesn't it happen?

Well that's best explained by saying Jeeralang is independently owned but operates under contract to Energy Australia whilst Torrens Island is owned by AGL.

A quick phone call would have things sorted really easily but then the ACCC would be looking to throw someone in jail for collusion.

Another more efficient option would be Bairnsdale power station (Vic) which is doing nothing at the moment. That one belongs to Alinta however.

Those are just examples but the same principle applies more broadly. Costs and emissions could both be cut by better use of what we've already built. Politics and ideology is what stops it not engineering or technical limits.

Note that I'm not criticising AGL, Alinta or Energy Australia here. They're just doing what the rules say they must do in a world where economic ideology is viewed as more important, as per the law, than technical efficiency to reduce costs and emissions.

 

[basilio]

There have an unprecedented number of bushfires in Queensland fanned by record temperatures, high winds and extremely dry landscape. This is climate change in action.
From space, the ferocity of Queensland’s bushfires is revealed
By Mark Doman

Digital Story Innovation Team

Updated earlier today at 8:55am
Published earlier today at 6:05am
In the face of an unimaginable bushfire threat, emergency agencies delivered a dire warning: evacuate now or burn to death.

For many, it was a signal that last week’s unfolding emergency would be unlike any fire Queensland had faced in recent memory.

In a perfect storm of extreme heat and fierce winds, fires erupted across a huge stretch of Queensland.

Properties were razed and entire towns were almost wiped off the map.

The fires were so intense they even penetrated rainforests — a phenomenal occurrence which has astounded and alarmed fire scientists.

“Rainforests are non-burnable. That’s one of their distinguishing features. So if a rainforest is burning, that’s really significant,” said David Bowman, Professor of Pyrogeography and Fire Science at the University of Tasmania.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12...of-queenslands-bushfires-is-revealed/10594662

 

[basilio]

So while the rainforests burn, the oil allies decide nothing significant is going to happen.
US and Russia ally with Saudi Arabia to water down climate pledge
Move shocks delegates at UN conference as ministers fly in for final week of climate talks

Jonathan Watts and Ben Doherty

Mon 10 Dec 2018 02.06 AEDT Last modified on Mon 10 Dec 2018 10.50 AEDT


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Protesters on Sunday in Katowice, which is hosting the UN climate conference. Photograph: Sadak Souici/Le Pictorium/Barcroft Images
The US and Russia have thrown climate talks into disarray by allying with Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to water down approval of a landmark report on the need to keep global warming below 1.5C.

After a heated two-and-a-half-hour debate on Saturday night, the backwards step by the four major oil producers shocked delegates at the UN climate conference in Katowice as ministers flew in for the final week of high-level discussions.

It has also raised fears among scientists that the US president, Donald Trump, is going from passively withdrawing from climate talks to actively undermining them alongside a coalition of climate deniers.
https://www.theguardian.com/environ...ly-saudi-arabia-water-down-climate-pledges-un

 

[basilio]

The effects of global warming on the Arctic and Antarctic are stark. Raising ocean temperatures by a couple of degrees tales HUGE energy input. The consequences however are the accelerated undermining the ice caps which regulate our current weather patterns.

An Upheaval at the Ends of the World
Two new reports find that the North and South Poles face an “unprecedented” climate future.

.... On Monday, a new NASA report warned that ancient glaciers in Antarctica are “waking up” and beginning to dump ice into the sea, which could eventually raise sea levels.

The following day, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its new Arctic Report Card, which finds that the top of the world is also thawing, melting, and breaking down. The Arctic is undergoing a period of “record and near-record warmth unlike any period on record,” the report says.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science...nprecedented-climate-future-nasa-says/577915/

 

[Knobby22]

The effects of global warming on the Arctic and Antarctic are stark. Raising ocean temperatures by a couple of degrees tales HUGE energy input. The consequences however are the accelerated undermining the ice caps which regulate our current weather patterns.

An Upheaval at the Ends of the World
Two new reports find that the North and South Poles face an “unprecedented” climate future.

.... On Monday, a new NASA report warned that ancient glaciers in Antarctica are “waking up” and beginning to dump ice into the sea, which could eventually raise sea levels.

The following day, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its new Arctic Report Card, which finds that the top of the world is also thawing, melting, and breaking down. The Arctic is undergoing a period of “record and near-record warmth unlike any period on record,” the report says.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science...nprecedented-climate-future-nasa-says/577915/

Hi Basilio
The Antarctic was meant to hold out a lot more and also the losses from the increased glacier movement some say would to be counteracted by increased snowfall on part of the continent.
The article is worrying but it's good that they aren't definitive of how the melting will continue so fingers crossed.

 

[basilio]

On the constructive side of this discussion.

A proposal on using a carbon tax that would leave most households better off. Not a bad idea for a tax is it ?
Fresh thinking: the carbon tax that would leave households better off
Today, as part of the UNSW Grand Challenge on Inequality, we release a study entitled A Climate Dividend for Australians that offers a practical solution to the twin problems of climate change and energy affordability.
It’s a serious, market-based approach to address climate change through a carbon tax, but it would also leave around three-quarters of Australians financially better off.
It is based on a carbon dividend plan formulated by the Washington-based Climate Leadership Council, which includes luminaries such as Larry Summers, George Schultz and James Baker. It is similar to a plan proposed by the US (and Australian) Citizens’ Climate Lobby.
How it would work
Carbon emissions would be taxed at A$50 per ton, with the proceeds returned to ordinary Australians as carbon dividends.
The dividends would be significant — a tax-free payment of about A$1,300 per adult.
The average household would be A$585 a year better off after taking account of price increases that would flow through from producers.
https://theconversation.com/fresh-t...that-would-leave-households-better-off-107177

 

[SirRumpole]

On the constructive side of this discussion.

A proposal on using a carbon tax that would leave most households better off. Not a bad idea for a tax is it ?
Fresh thinking: the carbon tax that would leave households better off
Today, as part of the UNSW Grand Challenge on Inequality, we release a study entitled A Climate Dividend for Australians that offers a practical solution to the twin problems of climate change and energy affordability.
It’s a serious, market-based approach to address climate change through a carbon tax, but it would also leave around three-quarters of Australians financially better off.
It is based on a carbon dividend plan formulated by the Washington-based Climate Leadership Council, which includes luminaries such as Larry Summers, George Schultz and James Baker. It is similar to a plan proposed by the US (and Australian) Citizens’ Climate Lobby.
How it would work
Carbon emissions would be taxed at A$50 per ton, with the proceeds returned to ordinary Australians as carbon dividends.
The dividends would be significant — a tax-free payment of about A$1,300 per adult.
The average household would be A$585 a year better off after taking account of price increases that would flow through from producers.
https://theconversation.com/fresh-t...that-would-leave-households-better-off-107177

Let's see Morrison knock that one off.

 

[basilio]

At what stage will this argument be appreciated and acknowledged ? I would be very interested to hear what the insurance costs have been for the 2018 fires in US, Canada and Sweden. Some expensive properties and infrastructure were destroyed in those fires

It was also significant that in the California fires the heat was so extreme there were concerns that underground infrastructure like electricity, water, communication and gas mains were damaged.

Tackle climate or face financial crash, say world's biggest investors
UN summit urged to end all coal burning and introduce substantial taxes on emissions

Damian Carrington in Katowice


@dpcarrington
Mon 10 Dec 2018 11.01 AEDT Last modified on Mon 10 Dec 2018 11.55 AEDT

Global investors managing $32tn issued a stark warning to governments at the UN climate summit on Monday, demanding urgent cuts in carbon emissions and the phasing out of all coal burning. Without these, the world faces a financial crash several times worse than the 2008 crisis, they said.

The investors include some of the world’s biggest pension funds, insurers and asset managers and marks the largest such intervention to date. They say fossil fuel subsidies must end and substantial taxes on carbon be introduced.
https://www.theguardian.com/environ...-financial-crash-say-worlds-biggest-investors

 

[wayneL]

Talk to China and India

We're chump change bas