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International markets traders banter
- Thread starter Trembling Hand
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some cafe this turned out to be :eek3:
....truffle, not trap!
....truffle, not trap!
CanOz
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CanOz
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Well the Bobl didn't setup as expected, but rocketed higher, so now we'll have to wait for another opportunity at a swing trade here...
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CanOz
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Back on deck after a successful house hunting trip in Brisbane!
Today's Dax and Eurostoxx levels for August 17 2015...On the equity indexes I'm looking for the possibility of a short covering rally to build today/tomorrow if we can stay in the lower end of the prior days range, sort of like channel lower...so expecting a rotational day slightly lower if Asia is tame...not a huge news day in Europe. If we take out the value area low of the composite I'll look for shorts then....I won't post the bonds but basically the Bund and Bobl are both sitting on the bracket VAH, so looking for longs off that and then short under it...
Today's Dax and Eurostoxx levels for August 17 2015...On the equity indexes I'm looking for the possibility of a short covering rally to build today/tomorrow if we can stay in the lower end of the prior days range, sort of like channel lower...so expecting a rotational day slightly lower if Asia is tame...not a huge news day in Europe. If we take out the value area low of the composite I'll look for shorts then....I won't post the bonds but basically the Bund and Bobl are both sitting on the bracket VAH, so looking for longs off that and then short under it...
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CanOz
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One-In-A-Billion "Hiccups" Are Happening All The Time, Citi Warns Something Is Wrong
One-In-A-Billion "Hiccups" Are Happening All The Time, Citi Warns Something Is Wrong
Could explain some of the crazy moves we've seen this year....
One-In-A-Billion "Hiccups" Are Happening All The Time, Citi Warns Something Is Wrong
Could explain some of the crazy moves we've seen this year....
CanOz
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Yesterday played out as expected, rotational lower into a channel. The market appears to be getting too short and we could have a covering rally to the 3550 area as minimum. On the Dax this would be 11135 area. So we'll look to buy in and around the channel on supporting orderflow....of course This could involve another third probe lower first, or not.
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CanOz
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We're still consolidating in the small value area on the DAX and FESX. I'm still expecting a short covering rally targeting 3580 as minimum.
3510 could be a buy zone to catch this as are levels 3484 to 3468. We may not even get to catch this move during the EU cash session, but we'll be watching for it regardless. I did manage to get 6 contracts on at an average of 3488 yesterday for a quick profit as the market auctioned up into the 3509 area, before rotating back toward the value area lows of the current range. However having left a 5 lot on my DOM i inadvertently scaled out all remaining at once instead of gradually as per my plan. Given the market retraced the move, i was none worse for the mistake this time.
You can see on the daily FESX (monthly VWAP), how the channel is developing, trapping shorts hopefully.
3510 could be a buy zone to catch this as are levels 3484 to 3468. We may not even get to catch this move during the EU cash session, but we'll be watching for it regardless. I did manage to get 6 contracts on at an average of 3488 yesterday for a quick profit as the market auctioned up into the 3509 area, before rotating back toward the value area lows of the current range. However having left a 5 lot on my DOM i inadvertently scaled out all remaining at once instead of gradually as per my plan. Given the market retraced the move, i was none worse for the mistake this time.
You can see on the daily FESX (monthly VWAP), how the channel is developing, trapping shorts hopefully.
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Trembling Hand
Can be found on the bid
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Think they won that battle.
CanOz
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Got chopped on DAX yesterday. How did you fella's go?
CanOz
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I was only looking for longs so i didn't get any setups....There were plenty of opportunities for little adhoc plays but i managed to stand aside, for once.
I really despise trading these grind lowers scenarios, its not easy to stay in a trade. Every time the market pops lower, it spikes to cover.
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Yeah, staying in a trend is a challenge. I guess you have to have conviction/faith, macro outlook, whatever... to stick it out. Have not graduated to that level yet, eh...
CanOz
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Yeah, exactly. You've really got to have confidence in the trade. When the market is not auctioning in one direction with allot of confidence, i find it impossible to read the order flow. That is usually when i find its time to sit out and wait until one of my plays sets up at a level that seems more structurally sound...Anyway, that's just my observations.
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ops exp thursday/friday this week for US http://www.cboe.com/tradtool/expirationcalendar.aspx
cupla things bout the trendy thing....in my tool bag..
similar qualities occuring cross several indexes give small tell on strength
just works for me....just saying...xjo and china h shares index both displayed same structure
hit the ratio, lift, fail, swing down to next same ratio, lift, sells on strength down we go
as they brk the levels we head for bigger levels the risk actaully increases as the larger ratios
attract heavier selling they are also met by deeper pockets who can pull the buy trigger and rip that faces of shorters .....
obviously, seeing and executing are and have always been two separate things
cupla things bout the trendy thing....in my tool bag..
similar qualities occuring cross several indexes give small tell on strength
just works for me....just saying...xjo and china h shares index both displayed same structure
hit the ratio, lift, fail, swing down to next same ratio, lift, sells on strength down we go
as they brk the levels we head for bigger levels the risk actaully increases as the larger ratios
attract heavier selling they are also met by deeper pockets who can pull the buy trigger and rip that faces of shorters .....
obviously, seeing and executing are and have always been two separate things
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this smaller exe hasnt played out yet.....trying to post and punch at the same time for the exercise
in real time .....you have to have your eye in on smaller bars, look for how bid gets smashed, maybe gives a small tell on who's rushing the sell ...volumes should lift in the peak of swells, dom players be like Marty Feldman
each day i drop a chart into a file and keep Brett Steebargers jpeg inside it...at the end of each week i clean
out the file and review the charts, what's left inside is this:
in real time .....you have to have your eye in on smaller bars, look for how bid gets smashed, maybe gives a small tell on who's rushing the sell ...volumes should lift in the peak of swells, dom players be like Marty Feldman
each day i drop a chart into a file and keep Brett Steebargers jpeg inside it...at the end of each week i clean
out the file and review the charts, what's left inside is this:
CanOz
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Thanks Joules, interesting.
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to round off ....scale em
closed out most shorts to get best of long
once the next ratio is hit reverse with larger trend
closed out most shorts to get best of long
once the next ratio is hit reverse with larger trend
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last one
the challenge with any technique that has a linear frame work is that i need to keep several zone lengths in my head
so as size correctly (like the current play in the gif) and keep clear on what phase or how far pric eis likely to travel within each context ... not a small study, for sure
the challenge with any technique that has a linear frame work is that i need to keep several zone lengths in my head
so as size correctly (like the current play in the gif) and keep clear on what phase or how far pric eis likely to travel within each context ... not a small study, for sure
CanOz
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Pretty nasty sell off going on, must be down 10% since Monday
I certainly didn't get the setup for a short covering rally and don't think i will this week...
I certainly didn't get the setup for a short covering rally and don't think i will this week...
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