International markets traders banter

[CanOz]

So these kinds of rallies will be fast with heaps of bids going through on the bid or offers.

Something to look out for.

The market took out 3360 (FESX) and the shorts have been spewing since. That's what i wanted to see today but i just didn't the stamina to sit and wait for it (getting too old)...when you see it, you'll remember it, and you'll know as a minimum that you don't fade it. 90% of the time now, i don't fade it...but i only catch it, 5% of the time.

That's got to improve.

Edit: i sort of knew it might happen today because it happened in Asia all afternoon...but with the context i wasn't sure how short Europe was. When the market gapped up in pre-cash, the reaction was not as supportive as i had hoped when the cash opened....plus the Bund wasn't cooperating either.

 

[fiftyeight]

The market took out 3360 (FESX) and the shorts have been spewing since

This is what I still cannot identify. I get a feeling but nothing I could write down on paper and thus am probably just guessing.

I am watching intermittently and I have not switched to the FESX as you have previously suggested. It MIGHT help me identify things like "spewing" "smashing the bid/offer" "sweeps" "pulling bids" a little more clear. With the thin markets I have been watching like the DAX and HSI I have found it difficult to distinguish between these.

Easier to blame IB data and CFDs

I also got bored and started watching the footy. I never average down on shares but have averaged down twice on the Pies to win haha

 

[avion]

What's with DAX...any news?

 

[captain black]

What's with DAX...any news?

http://news.forexlive.com/!/eu-summit-reaches-an-agreement-on-greek-deal-20150713

 

[avion]

http://news.forexlive.com/!/eu-summit-reaches-an-agreement-on-greek-deal-20150713

Thank you Capitain!

 

[avion]

SPI looks nice today:

 

[sinner]

A bunch of US charts. Doesn't look awesome. :grenade:

Volatility at lows, this is good, at least until it spikes. If you understand how the annualisation works for volatility, you can assume the line in the sand to be about 15, anything above that and you can look at ways to proportionally reduce your exposure (e.g. 15/VIX).



Breadth. Man this looks horrible. This is just one example, but you can take it from me that participation is crap amongst the board for US sectors and stocks! I checked, the breadth divergence leading into 2008 was about 1 year long (peak breadth v peak price)...we are well past the 1y mark by now.


TED spread, an oldie but a goodie. Unfortunately it has lost some meaning as the banks no longer use the Eurodollar in the same fashion they used to pre GFC. But regardless both its position in the range and slope provide some valuable info still. The natural range is like between 10-50bps (normally only see it spike above 50 during really bad events) but the rising slope is not promising.


Crude ratio of high yield to 10y Gov. Easier than going to the St Louis Fed website and getting the proper "BBB options adjusted" chart. You get the drift, not awesome, but it has come in off the lows.


Industrial metals. Does this look like investment in economic growth to you?

 

[sinner]

Brent. I guess it depends on how you look at oil, this could be considered bullish from a "cheaper input cost" perspective but bearish from a "holy crap where is demand?" perspective...


BDI, another oldie that people forgot after the GFC. Look, it's going up!


AAI investor sentiment (http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey) 6 month outlook. Bears and bulls alike continue to migrate into the "wtf is going on, neutral" column.


Valuations, hoo boy. Now keep in mind that these don't dictate short term outcomes (that's what all of the above charts do), but do keep in mind the forecast 10y nominal return based on John Hussmans shorthand valuation model using below or similar metrics is <1% pa at this point.

Given the above charts, it does seem less likely that we would be flat for the next 10y to get to that valuation...most likely outcome would be a nasty decline to below long term average valuation then a climb back to the current price level over a long time.
(chart from http://hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc150720.htm)

 

[avion]

A bunch of US charts. Doesn't look awesome. :grenade:

Good reading Sinner, thanks.

 

[MARKETWINNER]

It is high time to diversify investment and other businesses among basket of regions including frontier markets.

Every situation is an opportunity for intelligent investors. When market players are in buoyant mood they think this time is different. No it is not. Every asset has its own short term and long term cycles. Few years back USD stayed very low for a considerable period not only against high flying currencies such as NZD and AUD but also against frontier market currencies. Now it is other way. Those currencies such as AUD, NZD and CAD which appreciated rapidly against USD and frontier market currencies during last five years are depreciating against USD and frontier market currencies now. Lately emerging currencies such as Indian rupee and South African currencies had some sell off. India rupee had settle down somewhat. South Asia is more stable than other Asian regions.

Out of all currencies frontier market currencies are less vulnerable to any hiccup. They always traded very low against hard currencies and emerging currencies. On top of that, time to time they were devaluating their currencies against USD.

This is the time to diversify and identify undervalued markets and other undervalued assets including under valued currencies and emerging commodities.

Those who advised others to dumb USD will have to think twice now. By 2017/18 USD should become very strong. GOLD will crush further. Higher USD also will benefit some sectors in other countries. Higher USD means more demand for good and services as well.

http://www.investmentweek.co.uk/investment...rontier-markets

How new political regimes are helping Asia’s frontier markets

Michael Levy, investment manager, EMEA and global frontier markets equity team at Barings, looks at companies set to outperform on the back of new and more focused political regimes
.
While the performance of emerging markets over the past few years has been weak, frontier markets have been relatively more robust, particularly in Asia. This is not to say they have become impermeable to volatility: frontier market equities have come under pressure recently due to the plunging oil price – particularly in oil exporting markets such as Nigeria and Kazakhstan.

The companies which are likely to deliver the most attractive long-term returns are well-managed, and the potential for strong earnings growth for multiple years can be seen.

But in recent months, a strengthening political background in many frontier markets has become a key indicator of the continuing rise of the asset class into the investment mainstream.

In Asia, an example of the democratic process functioning well in a frontier economy was seen in Sri Lanka, which elected and installed a new president in January. The New Democratic Front – led by Maithripala Sirisena was declared the winner after receiving 50% of the votes. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern markets posted mixed returns of late, Saudi Arabia performed strongly despite the passing of King Abdullah in January – helped by the fact that his successor, King Salman, set out a clear roadmap for future succession.

While they will not be totally immune to significant developments in the global economy, frontier markets are expected to continue to be primarily driven by domestic issues.

Indeed, they do have a lower correlation with developed markets than their emerging counterparts – just 0.49 compared to 0.84. This means frontier markets tend to be driven much more by local factors than large-scale macroeconomic and geopolitical developments.

Solid growth across the frontier market universe is expected this year, significantly ahead of most developed or emerging economies, the growth is expected to continue through the medium to long term – over a three- to five-year time horizon – helped by supportive demographics.

For instance, while many investors have assumed the drop in the oil price is negative for frontier markets, we believe this concern is misplaced. Many frontier market countries are net oil importers, positioned to benefit from the oil price fall. This combination of a supportive economic environment and lower energy costs should be positive for Asia – particularly companies in countries such as Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.

Stronger growth

The companies which are likely to deliver the most attractive long-term returns are well-managed, and the potential for strong earnings growth for multiple years can be seen. Examples include Brac Bank and Masan Group.

The first of these is a bank in Bangladesh with good exposure to the fast-growing small and medium-sized enterprises market. It also operates Bangladesh’s leading mobile payments platform.

Masan Group, on the other hand, is Vietnam’s second-largest food and beverage company with dominant positions in seasonings, noodles and instant coffee. The company has exciting expansion plans and is looking to increase product offerings in new categories.

Share price valuation

It is worth highlighting the share price valuation for frontier markets, which is attractive in absolute terms and relative to emerging markets. As can be seen below, the MSCI Frontier Markets index offers more than twice the return on equity than the MSCI Emerging Markets index for a lower price/earnings ratio.
pg33-graph


http://fortune.com/2015/07/24/chinas-slowd...es-to-new-lows/

China's slowdown pushes commodity prices to new lows

Metals prices in particular are tanking as the long-held belief in limitless Chinese demand evaporates.

Fresh evidence of the slowdown in China’s industrial sectoris pushing the prices of gold and other commodities to new multi-year lows Friday.

Gold has slumped another 1.1% to a new five-year low of just over $1.080 a troy ounce, while prices for copper hit a six-year low below $2.36 a pound. Nickel and aluminum, two other base metals that also historically serve as good indicators of demand from global industry, also came close to new six-year lows, as traders increasingly lose faith in the main factor that has supported prices for the last decade–supposedly limitless demand from China.

The news is bad news for the global economy in general, as Chinese demand for raw materials has been a major prop to emerging markets for the last 20 years. Countries from Chile and Angola to Australia and New Zealand have come to depend on Chinese demand for their natural resources, and all are seeing their economies falter and their currencies fall as the biggest engine of global growth struggles. The International Monetary Fund earlier this month revised down its forecast for global growth this year to 3.3% from 3.5% (although that was mainly due to a weak first half in the U.S. rather than to Chinese factors).
Copper prices can’t stop falling. Source: Investing.com

Sentiment in global commodity markets has taken a turn for the worse in the wake of China’s second-quarter gross domestic product data and the drastic measures taken to control the deflation of a stock market bubble. The annual growth rate of 7% announced by the authorities seemed to be at odds with economists’ assessment of other indicators, prompting fears that the country is massaging its data. At the same time, the widespread suspension of stocks on the mainland market, coupled with heavy-handed measures to support prices and stop investors selling, has fostered doubts as to the authorities’ stated commitment to market-oriented reforms.

Markit’s flash estimate of its purchasing managers index, which is based on anecdotal replies from businessmen across the country rather than the calculations state-appointed statisticians, fell to a new 14-month low of 48.2 in July from 49.4 in June, while the manufacturing output sub-index fell to a 16-month low of 47.3 from 49.7. A reading of 50 typically reflects the line between growth and contraction.

Cold comfort for commodities – Chinese manufacturing is trending down.Markit

That was short of market expectations, and markets were alarmed by how broad-based the deterioration was. New orders, export orders, employment and prices all fell, while inventories of unsold goods rose
.
The Shanghai Composite index, despite the heavy restrictions on trading now in place, fell 1.3% in response to the news, but is still up more than 25% from its recent bottom, thanks to buying funded by state-backed entities. Even so, analysts have started to worry that the amount of wealth destroyed by rout since mid-June may be having knock-on effects at national level by depressing spending and consumer confidence.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites.

 

[CanOz]

Bullish or Bearish for this international index?

Would like to hear your opinion, bullish or bearish and why do you hold that view?

CanOz

 

[Joules MM1]

Bullish or Bearish for this international index?

Would like to hear your opinion, bullish or bearish and why do you hold that view?

CanOz

the first question an accomplished actor asks: what is the subtext
if you dont know the subtext, you dont know the intent of the character

Was ist der Zeitrahmen, herr Can?

 

[sinner]

Bullish or Bearish for this international index?

Would like to hear your opinion, bullish or bearish and why do you hold that view?

CanOz

Without seeing the price it's difficult to tell because you can't tell the scale of the chart at all.

But, I would hazard a guess that since the entire year of 2014 was spent in a distribution looking pattern rather than making new highs would indicate the resulting rally was due to an exogenous factor (probably Government intervention) and therefore unlikely to be sustainable in the long term.

On a betters basis I would assign:

* 65% probability of retesting the current high
* 35% probability of being higher than the current high in 6 months.
* 65% probability of retesting the high of the distribution pattern within 6 months.

But I wouldn't place any bets without a better shot of the chart.

 

[barney]

the first question an accomplished actor asks: what is the subtext
if you dont know the subtext, you dont know the intent of the character

Was ist der Zeitrahmen, herr Can?

Lol .... Ach tung ... Where u bin Joules?? Still trading/killing Gold?? .....

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

That would have to be the DAX with the way that's accelerated in the last 12-24 months?

 

[cynic]

That would have to be the DAX with the way that's accelerated in the last 12-24 months?

I came to a similar conclusion when I saw "DAX_CCB" on that chart.

 

[Joules MM1]

Lol .... Ach tung ... Where u bin Joules?? Still trading/killing Gold?? .....

barney !!

....applying the defib machine this week, as it goes

and why not....



credits to Jason Goepfert for the above view

you can get basic data from www.timingcharts.com that gives comparable contract sizes

metals are international markets, too

 

[Joules MM1]

you can get basic data from www.timingcharts.com that gives comparable contract sizes

metals are international markets, too

here's a cupla studies i did last few days, looking for a weekly swing low ....

 

[barney]

barney !!

....applying the defib machine this week, as it goes

and why not....

Haha .... make sure you hook the paddles up the right way round

I don't have any in depth analysis, but when Gold made that aggressive lower low last Monday, a few bells started to ring. (The Traders in pain indicator ... I know that Indicator well)

 

[CanOz]

I came to a similar conclusion when I saw "DAX_CCB" on that chart.

Yes, my mistake cynic....thought I got rid of any dax references...

I'm with sinner...looks bullish to me, is the QE fully priced in then? Perhaps not...