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http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/30/us-shutdown-explainer-non-americans



What is the shutdown all about?

In a word, money. The US financial year ends at midnight on Monday. Under US law a new bill to approve funding for the next financial year is required, which must have been approved by the House of Representatives, and the Senate, and the president. This has yet to happen.

Why not?

In two words, politics and Obamacare. The core problem is that the Republican party controls the lower house, or House of Representatives, while the Democrats control the Senate.

Republicans have been pushing for the budget to include cuts to Barack Obama's healthcare bill. Key parts of the Affordable Care Act kick in on Tuesday, so this is a last-ditch attempt to thwart the legislation.

Early on Sunday morning, the House approved legislation that would delay the act by a year. The Senate has refused to meet to discuss it. It's deadlock.

Would the shutdown mean the entire US government grinds to a halt?

No, it's not an anarchist's (or libertarian's?) dream. Essential services, such as social security and Medicare payments, would continue.

The US army would keep operating, even if pay packets are suspended. But hundreds of thousands of workers at non-essential services, from Pentagon employees to rangers in national parks, would be told to take an unpaid holiday (full breakdown here).

This sounds unprecedented. Is it?

Nope. The US government has shut down 17 times since 1977. However, it has not happened for 17 years, since the historic face-off between Bill Clinton and the Republican-controlled House halted services for 28 days in 1996.

Why doesn't it happen in other countries?

The shutdown situation is a product of the US democratic system. The president is both head of state and head of the federal government, without a guaranteed majority in either of the legislative bodies where new laws are debated and voted upon (because presidents, congressmen and women and senators are elected separately). The president can't simply ram laws through Capitol Hill.

In Britain, for example, tax and spending policies are outlined in the budget, presented to parliament by the chancellor of the exchequer. These changes are brought into law in a finance bill in the House of Commons. That's in effect a confidence vote in the government, and even the most fractious backbench MP would balk at rebelling on it.

Finance bills are also one area where the elected House of Commons has the upper hand over the unelected House of Lords. The Lords have no power to reject a money bill; they can only delay it for a month.

How does the US shutdown row tie in with the debt ceiling battle?

They are separate issues.

The shutdown battle is about approving future spending. The debt ceiling is another problem facing Washington – America has a legal limit on its borrowing of $16.7tn dollars, and it's likely to hit that point in mid-October.

If a deal isn't reached, then America would run out of borrowing room, meaning the world's biggest economy would default on its debts. Both problems need solving – and a shutdown would eat into valuable time to fix the debt ceiling.

Why can't they just raise the debt ceiling?

It's up to the House of Representatives and the Senate. And you will never guess what the Republicans want in return (yup, cuts to Obamacare).

Is the shutdown going to cause a stock market crash?

Investors are certainly worried. A short shutdown of a few days probably wouldn't have much impact on the US, but if it dragged on then the row could quickly hit economic growth.

Moody's, the rating agency, calculates that a two-week shutdown would cut 0.3% off US GDP, while a month-long outage would knock a whole 1.4% off growth.

Stock markets are down on Monday because of the risk of a US government shutdown and the danger that the Italian government may collapse. It's not a panic. Yet.

How could the Shutdown deadline be broken

Congress could pass a new "clean" funding plan, which didn't include a delay to the Affordable Healthcare Act. Or the Senate and the White House could accept such a delay. Or a compromise between the two positions could be finessed.
 

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I believe we may see strong rally in few more stocks markets just like Dubai, Japan and Philippine sooner than later. Dubai’s stock index climbed to the highest in almost five years. I heard even Jim Rogers is bullish on frontier markets such as North Korea and Myanmar.

In Thailand 10-year government bonds had a rally as foreigners increased holdings. After big selloff, Indian stock market rebounded strongly. There may be few more hidden markets.

As I said before it is time to identify next most bullish markets, sectors, stocks, commodities, currencies and other assets before others.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity, currency or any other asset. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
 
Buy risk today?

"US Senate majority leader Reid says he and republican McConnell have made “tremendous progress” towards debt limit, government funding deal, but “we are not there yet”

As far as i can understand meetings are postponed until 11am (US eastern time), but an agreement is looking closer
 
To me, these types of conditions are difficult to trade but the overnight prices need to be taken in context....think about anyone who went home short...

They're trapped now and any little push higher should see them want to cover quickly...so I'd be careful fading at the highs today...

In addition there could be new longs today as the news rolls out about a possible resolution.

As it is now, we have a very narrow opening range, how likely is it that it will remain narrow through the whole day?
 
Things getting a little crazy, there is a rumour about the bill every few minutes. Very jumpy, I want in, but am standing aside for the moment because I'm too scared

I want to get something on in anticipation of the deal going through, but it seems everyone is/has already jumped on that wagon, just doesn't feel right. Deal goes through nearly everyone already has position banking on it, deal doesn't go through and.... :bad:
 
Good volume on the NQ tonight...

[video=youtube_share;9O4AfHmHVo0]http://youtu.be/9O4AfHmHVo0[/video]
 
Classic double distribution on the DAX last session. You can clearly see by the volume that the market has set value higher, rejecting price in between.

The lower value area typically gets revisited sooner rather than later. At the moment we only have references under the market, and very few above, other than 8900 and 9000.

I would be happy to see more volume in today's session.:cautious:
 

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Maybe just wishful thinking but the market reaction has been pretty muted and gold hasn't tanked.
Suppose it was priced in and Fed may delay tapering due to less confidence less growth scenario.
So boring.
 
I sort of have the feeling its priced in as well...

Anyway, my feelings are usually wrong....

I'll let todays activity tell me the story when Europe opens...:)
 
...Suppose it was priced in and Fed may delay tapering due to less confidence less growth scenario.
So boring.

I reckon you'll be exactly right with this.

It's crazy how early and fast the market started to price it in. Imagine what would have happened if one of them threw a hissy fit at the last minute and the deal didn't go through, could have been chaos

I wrote something about this the other day, the market is so inclined to price in things so early these days that the only time anything happens is when the very unexpected hits. Or maybe it's always been like that and i just hadn't noticed.
 
I reckon you'll be exactly right with this.

It's crazy how early and fast the market started to price it in. Imagine what would have happened if one of them threw a hissy fit at the last minute and the deal didn't go through, could have been chaos

I wrote something about this the other day, the market is so inclined to price in things so early these days that the only time anything happens is when the very unexpected hits. Or maybe it's always been like that and i just hadn't noticed.

there has been some articles around about this particular event being priced in earlier and earlier each time they do it. The premise of the articles was that the market is getting used to this concept of last minute "on the brink" types of behavior by the politicians so its getting better at having the faith that they will do the right thing and kick the can at the least.

One of these days though, as you say, we will have a black swan type event when the totally expected and anticipated event doesn't happen as expected....

FWIW, the S&P internals are not looking too healthy...but thats could have been in anticipation of this event as well so we need to see these improve...Otherwise we could be in for a proper correction.

In terms of my only market that i trade live, the DAX, it could fall 200 points without much trouble. I would expect a bracket after that though. In the meantime its really onwards and upwards until we see some cracks appear. After all we are at all time highs.
 
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FWIW, the S&P internals are not looking too healthy...but thats could have been in anticipation of this event as well so we need to see these improve...Otherwise we could be in for a proper correction.

In terms of my only market that i trade live, the DAX, it could fall 200 points without much trouble. I would expect a bracket after that though. In the meantime its really onwards and upwards until we see some cracks appear. After all we are at all time highs.

I'm getting the same feeling with AUD. I have been pretty bullish as I think we are approaching the end of the interest rate cutting cycle and I think it's being priced in and then obviously the uncertainty is finished with the US. But now it seems to be struggling to make any more ground. I can't imagine what other good news can come out that can help it now (edit, maybe China GDP tomorrow!)

It feels like we need at least some sort of retracement before it can keep on carving up like it has been. It's also interesting that the high AUD might influence the chances of another cut. We know the RBA want the AUD lower and the only way to do it is more cuts. If it's already rising so much now, imagine where it could get to if the RBA turns more hawkish, damned if they do, damned if they don't
 
Maybe it needs to break down so it can rally (i don't even know what the chart looks like). Sometime you see markets get too long or too short and they need to clear out the weak hands before they can carry on, if you know what i mean?
 
Nice call, really hope you're on it!

No, as a matter of fact I've been thoroughly reemed out trying to fade half of my levels, ignoring the fact that the index was one time framing it down...:cautious:

Gold and Bonds bolted, so i should have known something was up...:eek:
 
Funny how the FTSE is not taking it as bad now...yet the DAX and FESX are, last week the FTSE always seemed overdone....
 
No, as a matter of fact I've been thoroughly reemed out trying to fade half of my levels, ignoring the fact that the index was one time framing it down...:cautious:

Gold and Bonds bolted, so i should have known something was up...:eek:

I got reemed on YEN, had been having such a good day before that too
 
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