International markets traders banter

[CanOz]

So the options expired worthless as i understand since VIX went nowhere...

Hopefully the vix went down....

 

[boofis]

sheesh, that's nearly 400 ticks up on yestys close why won't it put that range in during trading hours ha!

 

[skc]

Very surprising, isn't it?!

So... is the market now thinking no taper in the immediate future? Or tapering is just being delayed for a month or two?

The tone of the Fed statement makes it a bit uncertain when taper will start... this is going to be a fun monthly event (even more so than it has been for the past few years).

 

[CanOz]

Very surprising, isn't it?!

So... is the market now thinking no taper in the immediate future? Or tapering is just being delayed for a month or two?

The tone of the Fed statement makes it a bit uncertain when taper will start... this is going to be a fun monthly event (even more so than it has been for the past few years).

Even worse is now you have a full schedule of Fed jaw boning to get through....eg, Friday

Speakers
12:30EDT/16:30GMT Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George speaks on "The Federal Reserve and the Economy" before the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research Shadow Open Market Committee meeting

12:40EDT/16:40GMT US Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo Speaks on Challenges in Global Financial Services (New Haven, Connecticut)

12:55EDT/16:55GMT US Fed's Bullard Speaks on "U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy" before a New York Association for Business Economics Luncheon

13:45EDT/17:45GMT Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Narayana Kocherlakota gives academic talk at NYU Stern - Source TradeTheNews.com

 

[boofis]

Very surprising, isn't it?!

So... is the market now thinking no taper in the immediate future? Or tapering is just being delayed for a month or two?

The tone of the Fed statement makes it a bit uncertain when taper will start... this is going to be a fun monthly event (even more so than it has been for the past few years).

I really have very little understanding of how the taper is supposed, or actually going, to play out in real terms in the market. Just being wary, relatively tight ranges and low participation in my chosen markets.

 

[notting]

Very surprising, isn't it?!

So... is the market now thinking no taper in the immediate future? Or tapering is just being delayed for a month or two?

The tone of the Fed statement makes it a bit uncertain when taper will start... this is going to be a fun monthly event (even more so than it has been for the past few years).

Two things.

1.) the Fed has not moved from it's original statement about tapering schedule. Ben said employment 6.5%. He reiterated that. This could take quite some time!


2.) He has consistently said there needs to be structural reform and responsible governance regarding the debt ceiling debates and so on which is now more polarized than ever.

We should not have been surprised. (I got sucked in by all the TV experts too.)

 

[CanOz]

I really have very little understanding of how the taper is supposed, or actually going, to play out in real terms in the market. Just being wary, relatively tight ranges and low participation in my chosen markets.

Low participation? I'd think so, the HSI is open but its mid-autumn festival in China...the Shanghai market is closed.

 

[boofis]

Low participation? I'd think so, the HSI is open but its mid-autumn festival in China...the Shanghai market is closed.

ha, yeah not just today. Have a look at how september opened (with a bang) then look at the daily ranges since the 5th.

 

[CanOz]

ha, yeah not just today. Have a look at how september opened (with a bang) then look at the daily ranges since the 5th.

hmmm, good excuse to test out my Pats feed again...

 

[sinner]

After 2 weeks in India for work and only minimal trading access, I am back in the seat and looking at all the new highs on the indexes I track, and wondering how sustainable it is, then I look at breadth and it's telling me still not yet, we just aren't seeing the deterioration which we saw running into the flash crash or 2011 ugliness and definitely nothing like the insane breadth weakness running into the GFC. Even the Aussie market seems "healthy" in this respect, with indices retracing on resources pain, rather than pushing higher.

I also note some of my more predictive stuff (an example of which I posted not long ago in its own thread) concurs that these new highs aren't especially dangerous, with focus on various market fundamentals playing a much greater role than macro scare risk.

For long term stuff this is definitely not the place to be initiating new longs, but on the short term I would not fight the trend and look for little swings here and there as well as trying to capture those wonderful low volatility drifts when they come about.

Since I last checked in, cumulative NYSE breadth is certainly starting to look interesting compared to the NYSE broad ETF, third push without a new high...you can see it as weakness on the Summation Index, barely registering above 100!



NASDAQ cumulative breadth definitely a lot stronger, and again you can definitely see it reflected in the appropriate Summation Index.



Also interesting to note that most historically reliable valuation measures for the SP500 (CAPE, MV/GNP, Tobins Q, etc) seem to be in the top 5-10% most expensive of all available measurements and these expensive areas have always led to poor long term returns for investors and good opportunities for those with long volatility and value type strategies.

EDIT: I am not necessarily clearing existing longs out of the book just yet, but might start looking for short term signals to go short an index intraday and cover at the close.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

Since I last checked in, cumulative NYSE breadth is certainly starting to look interesting compared to the NYSE broad ETF, third push without a new high...you can see it as weakness on the Summation Index, barely registering above 100!

View attachment 54429

NASDAQ cumulative breadth definitely a lot stronger, and again you can definitely see it reflected in the appropriate Summation Index.

View attachment 54430

Also interesting to note that most historically reliable valuation measures for the SP500 (CAPE, MV/GNP, Tobins Q, etc) seem to be in the top 5-10% most expensive of all available measurements and these expensive areas have always led to poor long term returns for investors and good opportunities for those with long volatility and value type strategies.

EDIT: I am not necessarily clearing existing longs out of the book just yet, but might start looking for short term signals to go short an index intraday and cover at the close.

What do those charts mean sinner? In lamens terms

 

[sinner]

What do those charts mean sinner? In lamens terms

It's the 19,39,1 MACD of cumulative daily advance/decline. The number is "ratio adjusted" to ensure the number of stocks in the index doesn't affect the signal.

http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/kb/mcclellan_oscillator/

 

[notting]

Quote of the week.

You going to need to sit down to digest this.
It's extremely profound and gives gives a powerful insight into what direction you should take next.

Babobank: Fed will taper sooner or later.

I can see why CNBC have flagged it in their "Investment Edge" window.
With an edge like that, you can be sure you'r ahead of the game.

 

[sinner]

EDIT: I am not necessarily clearing existing longs out of the book just yet, but might start looking for short term signals to go short an index intraday and cover at the close.

Pretty happy with the way this worked out, declines across everything I track was all intraday.

My systemic risk indicator starting to flash a warning (not a sell yet) as well.

 

[notting]

I'm finding it quite amazing how quickly Greece has jumped back into the headlines as soon as the German elections are over.

 

[notting]

"The White House on Saturday said President Barack Obama would veto House Republican legislation that would delay much of the president's health-care overhaul for a year and cancel a tax on medical devices."
That's exactly what he should've done.
He was voted in with that agenda.
One for democracy and a display showing the system is not broken.

 

[havaiana]

Currencies acting a bit funny this morning, AUD has been thinner than usual but volume traded pretty good so far, reckon we could get some volatility today

On another note, how people in a democratic country can let Berlusconi happen, i don't know...

 

[CanOz]

Currencies acting a bit funny this morning, AUD has been thinner than usual but volume traded pretty good so far, reckon we could get some volatility today

On another note, how people in a democratic country can let Berlusconi happen, i don't know...

We've opened "out of value" with gap down on some markets, this is usually a good sign for a volatile or trend day (not always)...

 

[notting]

I think were are going to need a black swan on top of the shut down to really get a bit of action. Unless the shut down itself shows up some ugly crack.
Most are still focusing on fundamentals of individual companies.
Not enough selling yet.

 

[skc]

30 minutes countdown to shutdown.

I think were are going to need a black swan on top of the shut down to really get a bit of action. Unless the shut down itself shows up some ugly crack.
Most are still focusing on fundamentals of individual companies.
Not enough selling yet.

Yes... if the market over react to the shutdown then there will perhaps be an opportunity for a quick bounce trade.