Inflation

[over9k]

On some per capita measures, the real living standards of Australian households are back where they were eight years ago.

I am shocked I tell you, truly shocked.

 

[divs4ever]

more like the '70s for me

Skyhooks - Living in the 70's (Stereo Audio)

Living in the 70's (released in October 1974 on Mushroom Records) is the debut album by Melbourne band Skyhooks. It spent 16 weeks at the top of the Australian album charts and became the highest-selling album by an Australian act up until that time.Two singles were lifted from the album...

invidious.lunar.icu

still surrounded by drug-addicted weirdos ( thinking they have the answer for everything )

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Container rates for shipping have stabilised and are back at pre covid levels.
View attachment 165141
There has been a bit of an uptick in recent tmes, which may well be attributed to the severe drought in central Americas that has severely restricted what and how many can get through the panama canal.
From BBC News

Seeing as this restriction will continue to worsen for at leat twelve to 18 months, we can expect that container rates will increase, especially if the cape size ships start to bypass the canal and head for the Cape Horn route.

These costs ill eventually feed into costs for most countries.

not getting any better ... from Bloomberg

Climate change could ruin Christmas as Panama Canal dries up​

The impact of a record-breaking drought in Panama has spread beyond energy supplies and is now affecting container shipping, a crucial sector of the global freight market that moves everything from campervans to Christmas toys. Sudden downpours in the Central American nation may not be enough to mitigate changes to the way trade operates.

Rainfall this wet season – which runs from April to November – has been 41 per cent lower than normal, reducing levels at key reservoirs, including Gatun Lake. The 64-kilometre Panama Canal relies on these water sources to operate a system of locks that allow ships to transit between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. From 36 crossings per day, capacity has already been cut to 25 and will drop to 18 by February.
The possibility of a canal bottleneck turning into the “Pinch that stole Christmas” should be a catalyst for buyers, manufacturers and shipping companies to reassess their whole approach to supply and logistics. Centralising manufacturing and piling products into ever-larger ships makes less sense if transport bottlenecks diminish economies of scale.
To allocate slots, the Panama Canal Authority (PCA) auctions off crossings. Japan’s Eneos Group paid $US3.98 million ($6.06 million) in a sale last month, 20 times more than average. Carriers of fuels such as liquefied petroleum gas and liquefied natural gas were hardest hit early on – restrictions started to bite in May – because they don’t have fixed schedules and need to queue up when they arrive at either entrance.
As the drought continues, caused by a severe bout of the El Nino effect, container vessels are now starting to be affected.

These vessels tend to operate on a fixed timetable so they can book ahead and sail straight through. But even scheduled crossings are being cut.
In fact, the impact on container transport has the potential to be much worse, because the majority of these ships are now larger after an upgrade to the canal in 2016 allowed larger carriers to pass through. This NeoPanamax class can hold 2.8 times more containers than the Panamax variety. Crossings for NeoPanamax have been cut by the biggest ratio because of their size

 

[moXJO]

not getting any better ... from Bloomberg

Climate change could ruin Christmas as Panama Canal dries up​

The impact of a record-breaking drought in Panama has spread beyond energy supplies and is now affecting container shipping, a crucial sector of the global freight market that moves everything from campervans to Christmas toys. Sudden downpours in the Central American nation may not be enough to mitigate changes to the way trade operates.

Rainfall this wet season – which runs from April to November – has been 41 per cent lower than normal, reducing levels at key reservoirs, including Gatun Lake. The 64-kilometre Panama Canal relies on these water sources to operate a system of locks that allow ships to transit between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. From 36 crossings per day, capacity has already been cut to 25 and will drop to 18 by February.
The possibility of a canal bottleneck turning into the “Pinch that stole Christmas” should be a catalyst for buyers, manufacturers and shipping companies to reassess their whole approach to supply and logistics. Centralising manufacturing and piling products into ever-larger ships makes less sense if transport bottlenecks diminish economies of scale.
To allocate slots, the Panama Canal Authority (PCA) auctions off crossings. Japan’s Eneos Group paid $US3.98 million ($6.06 million) in a sale last month, 20 times more than average. Carriers of fuels such as liquefied petroleum gas and liquefied natural gas were hardest hit early on – restrictions started to bite in May – because they don’t have fixed schedules and need to queue up when they arrive at either entrance.
As the drought continues, caused by a severe bout of the El Nino effect, container vessels are now starting to be affected.

These vessels tend to operate on a fixed timetable so they can book ahead and sail straight through. But even scheduled crossings are being cut.
In fact, the impact on container transport has the potential to be much worse, because the majority of these ships are now larger after an upgrade to the canal in 2016 allowed larger carriers to pass through. This NeoPanamax class can hold 2.8 times more containers than the Panamax variety. Crossings for NeoPanamax have been cut by the biggest ratio because of their size

Lucky for us here in Australia we have the manufacturing hub above us.

 

[divs4ever]

Lucky for us here in Australia we have the manufacturing hub above us.

the one we are buying nuclear subs to 'defend against ' or were you talking about South Korea

 

[qldfrog]

not getting any better ... from Bloomberg

Climate change could ruin Christmas as Panama Canal dries up​

The impact of a record-breaking drought in Panama has spread beyond energy supplies and is now affecting container shipping, a crucial sector of the global freight market that moves everything from campervans to Christmas toys. Sudden downpours in the Central American nation may not be enough to mitigate changes to the way trade operates.

Rainfall this wet season – which runs from April to November – has been 41 per cent lower than normal, reducing levels at key reservoirs, including Gatun Lake. The 64-kilometre Panama Canal relies on these water sources to operate a system of locks that allow ships to transit between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. From 36 crossings per day, capacity has already been cut to 25 and will drop to 18 by February.
The possibility of a canal bottleneck turning into the “Pinch that stole Christmas” should be a catalyst for buyers, manufacturers and shipping companies to reassess their whole approach to supply and logistics. Centralising manufacturing and piling products into ever-larger ships makes less sense if transport bottlenecks diminish economies of scale.
To allocate slots, the Panama Canal Authority (PCA) auctions off crossings. Japan’s Eneos Group paid $US3.98 million ($6.06 million) in a sale last month, 20 times more than average. Carriers of fuels such as liquefied petroleum gas and liquefied natural gas were hardest hit early on – restrictions started to bite in May – because they don’t have fixed schedules and need to queue up when they arrive at either entrance.
As the drought continues, caused by a severe bout of the El Nino effect, container vessels are now starting to be affected.

These vessels tend to operate on a fixed timetable so they can book ahead and sail straight through. But even scheduled crossings are being cut.
In fact, the impact on container transport has the potential to be much worse, because the majority of these ships are now larger after an upgrade to the canal in 2016 allowed larger carriers to pass through. This NeoPanamax class can hold 2.8 times more containers than the Panamax variety. Crossings for NeoPanamax have been cut by the biggest ratio because of their size

From Bloomberg so woke swamp media, we had to blame climate change.As mentioned at the end of the article:
Panama has opened a new much bigger canal in parallel to handle much bigger ships.
Obviously the water consumption went up the roof..and there was no extra capacity added to the natural lakes, then add the expansion of population consumption (not too bad with agriculture and industry so far) and this was a disaster waiting to happen.
Not that we would do much better here as we are doubling the population size of our cities without adding extra dams either
In both cases, blame climate change LOL.
But the issue is here, and will remain even if we close our few left coal power stations.i expect that inflationary impact to be localised on the north American markets

 

[Dona Ferentes]

From Bloomberg so woke swamp media, we had to blame climate change.As mentioned at the end of the article:
Panama has opened a new much bigger canal in parallel to handle much bigger ships.
Obviously the water consumption went up the roof..and there was no extra capacity added to the natural lakes, then add the expansion of population consumption (not too bad with agriculture and industry so far) and this was a disaster waiting to happen.
Not that we would do much better here as we are doubling the population size of our cities without adding extra dams either
In both cases, blame climate change LOL.
But the issue is here, and will remain even if we close our few left coal power stations.i expect that inflationary impact to be localised on the north American markets

i thought of editing it out, M le frog, but the clicks don't come unless you throw the switch to vaudeville, as P Keating once said. Why analyse when simplistic will do. At least the article does probe a bit.

 

[moXJO]

the one we are buying nuclear subs to 'defend against ' or were you talking about South Korea

Pretty much all of Asia.
Albos been smooching winnie the poohs ar5e a lot lately. We might see a bit of a pivot if Trump gets in.

 

[divs4ever]

Pretty much all of Asia.
Albos been smooching winnie the poohs ar5e a lot lately. We might see a bit of a pivot if Trump gets in.

there seems to be a lot of growth in Asia ( compared to other continents )

but from my limited dealing with Asians they prefer genuine commitments to agreements

it isn't just an Albo thing with Australian trade relationships ( we could have been joined at the hip with India more than 10 years back , had we thought about the nations future carefully )

 

[moXJO]

there seems to be a lot of growth in Asia ( compared to other continents )

but from my limited dealing with Asians they prefer genuine commitments to agreements

it isn't just an Albo thing with Australian trade relationships ( we could have been joined at the hip with India more than 10 years back , had we thought about the nations future carefully )

Middle class is starting to form in a lot of these nations. Juicy opportunities ahead.

 

[divs4ever]

Middle class is starting to form in a lot of these nations. Juicy opportunities ahead.

i hope so i have been trying to get exposure to India and Indonesia where i see potential , i also have a stock where they operate in Singapore

i see some bumps along the way , but they might turn into top-up opportunities

and not so bullish on China as i see it as mature economy that has to pause and smooth out bottle-necks ( or we will have a much bigger version of 'the Asian crisis ' )

 

[over9k]

India's the china of the next 30 years

 

[IFocus]

India's the china of the next 30 years

India has the smarts but do you think they have the culture to grow like China?

 

[divs4ever]

India has the smarts but do you think they have the culture to grow like China?

smarts has a way of refining culture ( in many cases )

if India tries to keep to a ( fairly ) pure capitalist system yes i think they will figure it out ( using poor results elsewhere as a guide )

BTW do you really want to grow like China with massive growth in recent years and the indigestion coming due now

if India can grow at a steady 4% ( per year ) in the next 5 years when many other economies are stalling or shrinking it should do so without a lot of drama ( unless the US gets jealous of them also )

 

[divs4ever]

in my opinion India should work towards a regional bloc ( closer relations with Sri Lanka , Bangladesh and Pakistan ) maybe not an EU type bloc , but direct goods and currency swaps although the tribal lands in Pakistan might make a move to join with Afghanistan in preference

 

[mullokintyre]

India has a lot going for it.
It is a democracy of sorts in that they have regular elections and a functioning parliament.
Depending on how you you view the wars between India and Pakistan, it has never invaded another country since its independence from Britain.
Indias debt to GDP ratio at 53% is very similar to Australia's, and significantly below most of the G7 nations, and 10% below China's.
It has a growing middle class.
It has the largest population of the earth's nations, and its demographics are superior to most other nations with 25% of its population under 14, and only 7% over 64.
They run really good call centres.
Mick

 

[over9k]

India has the smarts but do you think they have the culture to grow like China?

Yes. Also vastly better geography.

 

[divs4ever]

Yes. Also vastly better geography.

depends on if you like the heat or not , but lots of coastline and less likely to be shut in via seaborne blockades . add in solid rice producer Bangladesh has an adjoining land border

better for trading , might be harder to defend from invasions/incursions

the only major draw-back i can see , is the relatively short time they have been a sovereign democracy , so not as used to dirty games of power as some

 

[moXJO]

India has the smarts but do you think they have the culture to grow like China?

Corruption and bureaucracy will be an anchor.

 

[over9k]

Market still not accepting this whole "higher for longer" thing.

A whole stack of rate cuts had already been priced in to fixed income and wouldn't you know it, yields are now soaring, futures are dumping, growth plays in particular are getting slaughtered, this is all feeling so familiar.