Inflation

[over9k]

Fed pauses exactly as expected. Markets are just betting on when the first cut will be. Snoozefest.

 

[wayneL]

Batten down the hatches, folks.

 

[mullokintyre]

Batten down the hatches, folks.

View attachment 167234

Has he ever predicted anything correctly?
Mick

 

[moXJO]

Has he ever predicted anything correctly?
Mick

That's why he is the leading indicator for the opposite.

 

[moXJO]

Everyone is spending because it'll only be more expensive tomorrow. Seen a lot of appliance upgrades, refurbishments etc.

 

[divs4ever]

Everyone is spending because it'll only be more expensive tomorrow. Seen a lot of appliance upgrades, refurbishments etc.

yep , that is what i was doing , but months back , durable goods of course

mind you i don't care if i have the latest/greatest just stuff i need that works ( without a 3 month tuition course )

 

[farmerge]

Yep.

But not this little black duck

I was only in there to do some banking In and out. No stay around for me. Probably venture down there or the Pig and Whistle next week with the cook for lunch.

 

[farmerge]

yep , that is what i was doing , but months back , durable goods of course

mind you i don't care if i have the latest/greatest just stuff i need that works ( without a 3 month tuition course )

And instructions on a minute piece of paper written ina foreign language.

 

[over9k]

BOE holds. 6 voted to hold, 3 to raise.

 

[over9k]

U.S jobless numbers come in at 200 vs 220 estimated. Retail sales up 0.3 vs estimated -0.1. ECB also holds.

 

[Knobby22]

U.S jobless numbers come in at 200 vs 220 estimated. Retail sales up 0.3 vs estimated -0.1. ECB also holds.

Soft landing?

 

[over9k]

 

[over9k]

Notice how economy itself isn't getting upgraded, it's just being replaced with premium seats?

This tells you that it's an income (and therefore spending) distribution driven phenomenon, not an overall across the board increase in the demand.

 

[divs4ever]

Soft landing?

depends on how many peons are under the craft when it hits bottom ( none makes it much harsher )

 

[Knobby22]

depends on how many peons are under the craft when it hits bottom ( none makes it much harsher )

A soft landing has all sorts of implications, particularly for the stock markets.

 

[divs4ever]

A soft landing has all sorts of implications, particularly for the stock markets.

so does habitual fudging of the official statistics

exciting times , i suspect

 

[over9k]

 

[mullokintyre]

There have been a number of posts both on ASF and elsewhere over recent times highlighting how Immigration is contributing to inflation.
I would have certainly agreed with those sentiments until I started looking at the ABS stats on immigration.
Below is a chart of the numbers entering the country versus those leaving.


Generally, the two data sets largely follow each other, with the arrivals spikes generally lagging the departure spikes.
The last few months have continued that trend, however the spikes in inward migration were bigger than outward migration
We need to see a few more months of data to see if it is indeed a new trend.
Perhaps the immigration is causing inflation/housing bubble/labour oversupply etc needs a little further data analysis.
mick

 

[moXJO]

There have been a number of posts both on ASF and elsewhere over recent times highlighting how Immigration is contributing to inflation.
I would have certainly agreed with those sentiments until I started looking at the ABS stats on immigration.
Below is a chart of the numbers entering the country versus those leaving.
View attachment 167465

Generally, the two data sets largely follow each other, with the arrivals spikes generally lagging the departure spikes.
The last few months have continued that trend, however the spikes in inward migration were bigger than outward migration
We need to see a few more months of data to see if it is indeed a new trend.
Perhaps the immigration is causing inflation/housing bubble/labour oversupply etc needs a little further data analysis.
mick

What's the metrics they based this off?
Is our population increasing significantly on top of the birth rate?

 

[moXJO]

Will the attacks by Yemen rebels in the straits flare inflation again?

I noticed Biden going pretty hard as it's an election year coming up.